US Switching From Coal To Natural Gas -- Market Realist -- November 11, 2014

Still catching up. From the other day. Market Realist is reporting, part 4: why the switch to natural gas.

Part 3: why you should care about Obama's war on coal.

A seven-part series.

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Miscellaneous Wind Stories

North Dakota presses on. This is kind of cool -- it's a great story for those who like this sort of stuff. The good news? Hillary, Barry, and Pocahantas will all say "they didn't build that." The Dickinson Press is reporting:

A North Dakota wind farm proposed in the migration route of an endangered bird has been revived after the developer unsuccessfully sued Xcel Energy for pulling out of the project in 2011.

San Diego-based EDF Renewable Energy first proposed the 100-turbine, 150-megawatt Merricourt Project in 2008.

The wind farm would straddle southeastern North Dakota’s McIntosh and Dickey counties and produce enough renewable energy to power 43,500 homes, the company said.

Xcel Energy Inc. signed a $380 million deal to purchase the wind power and assets from EDF, formerly known as enXco.

But Minneapolis-based Xcel terminated the contract after EDF failed to secure a site permit from state regulators by March 31, 2011. The delay was blamed in part on concerns raised by federal officials about the potential effects on the endangered whooping crane and threatened piping plover.

By the way, that "piping plover"? It's one of the poster birds for the environmentalists. Even the folks in Massachusetts are starting to say that if the piping plover cannot recover after 50 years of humans protecting it, it wasn't meant to be.

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Obama's Failing Solar Farm

On Life Support
Feds Could Help

SBYNEWS is reporting:

Obama gave the California-based Ivanpah Solar Electric Power Plant $1.6 billion of your tax dollars already claiming that it would bring a thousand jobs and power to millions of people. 

But the plant is still failing financially and now is demanding another $539 million taxpayer bailout to keep it afloat. 

Like all of Obama’s so-called “green energy” projects, this is a massive failure and a giant waste of tax money. 

After already receiving a controversial $1.6 billion construction loan from U.S. taxpayers, the wealthy investors of a California solar power plant now want a $539 million federal grant to pay off their federal loan. 

"Wealthy" investors? I hope they are wealthy; that's what investing is all about. And if the federal government is offering grants, they should take it.

I'm sort of a spectator in all of this, but I do pay high electric rates in Texas through NRG:

The Ivanpah solar electric generating plant is owned by Google and renewable energy giant NRG, which are responsible for paying off their federal loan. If approved by the U.S. Treasury, the two corporations will not use their own money, but taxpayer cash to pay off 30 percent of the cost of their plant, but taxpayers will receive none of the millions in revenues the plant will generate over the next 30 years. 

In the big scheme of things, it matters not to me.  But if the grant helps hold down my utility costs, I say, "go for it."

Halcon Will Cut Five (5) Rigs Originally Planned For 2015; Seven (7) New Permits -- North Dakota

The IPs of the wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend and Monday were posted earlier; the IPs for wells coming off confidential today will be reported tomorrow, I assume. 

This is from yesterday's daily activity report; I'm not sure when it was posted, but it was not posted last night, or if it was, I missed it (but I don't think so). There will be no daily activity report for today. Yesterday:

Seven (7) new permits:

• Operators: Murex (4), Statoil (2), Triangle
• Fields: Sandrocks (McKenzie), Cow Creek (Williams), Todd (Williams), Elk (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Active rigs:

	11/11/2014	11/11/2013	11/11/2012	11/11/2011	11/11/2010
Active Rigs	191	182	191	200	158

RBN Energy: something bad about to happen. Supply and demand, natural gas.

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Global Warming
Early November, 2014, Polar Vortex (Unnamed)
November 12, 2014 -- 

Minnesota shatters snow record from 1898 -- predicted by warmists -- global warming will result in more snow
Arctic blasts pummels USA -- unexplained; stuff happens
Only six (6) states not expecting snow in coming week (and one of them may be Hawaii)
Winter still a month away
Twelve (12) years since Dallas has had two consecutive days so cold 
Wyoming wind chill warning: 35 below 
Central Ontario snowfall could reach 20 inches 
Cold to freeze East 
Shattering snowfall records in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan -- predicted by warmists -- global warming will result in more snow
All 50 states brace for freezing temperatures -- November 13, 2014
Cold freeze moves east -- November 13, 2014
Denver cold shatters two records, including low temp record set in 1882 -- November 13, 2014
Coldest November in decades -- November 14, 2014
Michigan town receives one month's snow -- in one day --November 14, 2014
Storm dumps four (4) feet of snow on Wisconsin town -- November 14, 2014
Ice on Lake Superior -- almost a month early -- November 16, 2014
Harsh cold to set records in south, freeze northeast -- November 16, 2014

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Warren Buffett

BRK-B traded at all-time highs today; closed slightly down. UNP traded at all-time highs -- look at the chart -- dividends up from 13 cents/share to $1.00/share (based on post 2-1 split). Memo to self: send another thank-you note to Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska for stopping the pipelines, and encouraging more and more rail.

I pointed out to my brother-in-law visiting from California all the 110-tank unit trains in the Dallas-Ft Worth area carrying Permian and Eagle Ford oil here in north Texas.

The Dow itself was flat (up slightly), continuing to trade at/near all-time highs. Fifth straight record high, according to radio news.

Remember, this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

This is kind of cool. Comparing AAPL vs UNP over the past two years, AAPL has shown a 44% appreciation in share price vs an astounding 99% appreciation in share price of UNP (pretty much doubling) over the past two years.  

I guess this came out yesterday: Halcon resources with a big miss, 3 cents vs 6 cents forecast. Press release.  Halcon operates 8 rigs acorss its holdings; Halcon will cut five rigs originally planned for 2015. Currently operating 3 rigs in the Bakken. Snapshot here.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

Veterans Day

Our local school district in Texas does not "take" the Veterans Day holiday. The students show up for school and most of the day is spent studying Veterans Day. The program at our school included a one-hour event honoring local veterans (parents and grandparents of children attending the school), followed by tea and coffee in the lunchroom. The day started out with the Pledge of Allegiance to the United States AND the pledge to HONOR the state flag of Texas.

Each of the veterans, there were about 35, were given time at the mike to introduce themselves and say where they served. It was quite touching to hear from the vets who served as rangers, or airborne, search and rescue, or forward controllers in Vietnam. A few young vets from Iraq and Afghanistan were there. I crossed paths with an SR-71 pilot; we were both stationed at Mildenhall Air Base in the late 80's. 1980's. 

Yesterday, I visited the JKF site in Dallas, Dealy Square -- the convergence (memories of Vietnam today; memories of JFK yesterday) was quite striking.

And regular readers know where we are going with this. The program ended with the students singing this song and the veterans standing when their song was sung:

Military Salute to the Troops, Gene Simmons

Williston Sets New Building Permit Record -- Tuesday -- November 11, 2014 -- Veterans Day

Link here:

Williston just broke their Building permits record and it isn't even the end of the year. Calendar year 2012 was the largest on record at $470,101,124.00. 

Today, the Williston City building department reports as of October 2014, Williston has permitted $475,941,353.63 in permits with 2 more months to go. 

Do you think they will hit the half-billion mark?

Yes.

How's that for a quick answer? Seriously, that truly is incredible. I don't know how to define a "boom." I suppose the answer is a lot like of other things: I can't define a boom but I recognize it when I see it. 

Actually, this year's number is even more impressive when one compares it to last year (calendar year, 2013), less than $342 million for the year, again, compared with more than $475 million at this point.

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Note: do not read below this section. I am still behind in my blogging, but I have to post some things so I don't "lose" them. Anything below this item is non-Bakken-related. It is for my personal use and is not intended for others. Out-of-town family guests will start to depart tomorrow and once everyone has departed, I hope to be back to regular blogging about the Bakken.

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TrainWreck

Wall Street Journal is reporting:

Millions fewer people will enroll in private health plans under the Affordable Care Act next year than the Congressional Budget Office had predicted, the Obama administration said Monday.

The developments are the latest sign that the law, which Democrats passed in 2010 to provide near-universal health insurance, is struggling to reach that goal quickly. Attracting new enrollees to the health law’s insurance exchanges has proven more difficult than advocates had predicted, and a slice of those who do sign up for plans haven’t kept up with premiums.

Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell said the administration was aiming for 9.1 million paid-up enrollees by the end of 2015, though the range could extend to 9.9 million, according to a new analysis conducted by her agency.

The exchanges, which reopen Saturday for the law’s second year of insurance enrollment, were expected to have 13 million people enrolled in private health plans under the law in 2015, according to an April 2014 projection by the nonpartisan CBO.

I've said for quite some time, the "slice" is actually getting quite big.

The slice will get bigger when they find out how high the deductibles are:

Obamacare’s second open enrollment begins this Saturday and consumers can already start window-shopping for health policies sold on the federal exchange, HealthCare.gov. 

An earlier study from HealthPocket found that the average individual deductible for Obamacare’s bronze plan was $5,081 a year—42 percent higher than the average deductible of $3,589 for a comparable individually purchased plan. 

It appears that most folks with ObamaCare are getting: a) catastrophic health care insurance; b) birth control pills; and, c) annual physical exams with breast cancer screening (male and female).

And still another Yahoo!Finance story on how much ObamaCare is going to cost those with "gold-plated" health care plans (such as some union members have):

They might want to think about changing the name of Obamacare's "Cadillac Tax" to a "Ferrari Tax."

A new report that details the effects of a looming Obamacare excise tax on employer-sponsored health plans highlights the big bucks large companies will have to dole out starting in 2018 and how employees might end up getting stuck with much of the costs if bosses blanch at the tax bill.

The American Health Policy Institute analysis found that big companies subject to the tax will pay an average of $2.1 million per year from 2018 to 2024—equal to $2,700 per employee. And if companies adjust workers' wages to offset reductions in health benefits due to the tax, more than 12 million employees will face an average of $1,050 in higher payroll and income taxes per year.

"As these numbers show, this tax is going to impose real costs on both employees and employers alike," the group's report said. 

The tax will start in 2018 and impose a 40 percent levy on the cost of individual health plans above $10,200 for individuals and $27,500 for family coverage, with both employer and worker contributions included. Every dollar above those thresholds is taxed at that 40 percent rate, the tax is not deductible by the employer and the thresholds are indexed to inflation. 

One would think Tricare is a "gold-plated" health care plan, but I have not heard whether or not military members will be taxed for being covered by Tricare. 

Again, one has to ask why they are posting this story now, in 2014 -- this tax does not take effect until 2018, four years from now. It's all about shining a bad light on ObamaCare, putting pressure on Obama, pushing him off-stage, to set up 2016 for Hillary or Pocahantas. Hillary will come out fighting, move to the center, and promise to take some of these new taxes off the table. Pocahantas won't make the same promise.

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Property Over Lives

I see the state of Missouri has decided that property is more important than lives in their state. The governor says the state will not tolerate violence, and that property will be protected. Starting to sound like Texans. This is / was from the radio and I am paraphrasing, but I think that's what was said.

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Global Warming

Climate Change

Extreme Weather

Ice Age Now

Polar Vortex

USA Today is reporting, as predicted by the warmists, central US freezing -- 

Arctic air continued to surge into the central U.S. on Tuesday, while record-breaking snow buried portions of the upper Midwest.

Temperatures were only in the single digits, teens, and 20s across much of the north-central U.S. as of late Tuesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be 20 to 40 degrees below average for areas east of the Rockies into the Great Plains, the National Weather Service warned.

Wind chills were as cold as 20 below zero in portions of western Montana on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, wind chills could bottom out at 35 below zero in some spots, which is enough to cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes.

Significant snow fell across Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Monday and more snow was set for Tuesday, especially across Wisconsin and Michigan, where 6-12 additional inches of snow is likely, AccuWeather predicts.

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Politics

I don't know if folks have noticed this, but the media is "dumping" (their word, not mine) a lot of negative-Obama stories over the past week. Here is one, from Fox News: Valerie Jarrett is now the scapegoat-in-chief. Valerie is the "face" of the Obama dynasty, and now it appears she is being thrown under the bus as the excuse for the recent shellacking.

Apparently all four networks (ABC, CBS, Fox News, and NBC) all had huge stories yesterday on the 

future of ObamaCare and the picture was not pretty.  One story: ObamaCare numbers for 2015 are going to "tank" (their words, not mine). But here is the story that was reported on all four networks yesterday, and has apparently gone viral: ObamaCare architect: the stupidity of the American voter led us to hide ObamaCare's true costs from the public -- Forbes.

Another example: CNBC -- squarely behind Obama for the past six years -- now says the "full housing recovery" is stalled, and won't happen until 2018. This story would never have been posted before the election (it wasn't) and if Obama were up for re-election, it never would have been posted at all.

The question is "why now?" The mainstream media did not turn conservative overnight.

This is what is going on. The media has not changed their liberal stance; the media is simply moving on. The media needs to move Obama off the stage before they can crown their next "nominee." It's not clear yet who that will be but right now it appears to be a toss-up between Hillary and Pocahontas.

Expect another six weeks to six months of truth about "the Obama story." Once the Obamas are off the stage, then the positive-stories start coming out, building up either H or P.

North Dakota Oil And Gas Lease Sales Results, November, 2014

There may be typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. The link: http://www.land.nd.gov/minerals/mineralapps/auctions/auctionhistorysale.aspx.

Here are the November, 2014, results, with bonus dollars/acre:

Billings County
Four parcels for $210/acre.

Bottineau
A few parcels for as much as $210 and $400/acre but most of the acres went for a dollar/acre bonus.

Bowman
No parcels.

Burke
No parcels.

Divide
Several parcels between $1,275 and $1,600/acre. Pretty impressive compared to earlier sales.

Dunn
Except for one parcel ($1,050) and another parcel ($900) almost all parcels for $5 or less.

Hettinger
One parcel for $31/acre.

McKenzie
A couple dozen parcels all between $400 and $1,000; but a couple of parcels for $6,300 and $6,600.

Mountrail
All three parcels for $210/acre.

Renville
Three parcels for $5/acre.

Stark
No parcels.

Williams
Four parcels: $4,700/acre for one 80-acre parcel; three 80-acre parcels for $2,500/acre.

Monday, Monday -- November 10, 2014

RBN Energy: Eagle Ford condensate takeaway, 8th in a series.

Active rigs:

	11/10/2014	11/10/2013	11/10/2012	11/10/2011	11/10/2010
Active Rigs	193	182	191	199	157

A second look at Warren Buffett's purchase of BNSF -- Bloomberg.

Speculators are least bullish on oil in 20 months; don't see signs of OPEC cutting production -- Bloomberg.

GM dithered on alerting drivers to ignition problems -- "raw evilness" -- lawyer. Reported at Yahoo!Finance.