What's Going On? February 2, 2022

FB: misses; down almost 23% after hours. Company blames inflation, supply chain disruptions and users shifting to "cheaper products" that do the same thing. 

• Apple could have said the same thing but smashed records and expectations. 
• analysts looking for revenues of $30 billion; came in between $27 and $29 billion.
• EPS: $3.67 vs $3.84 expected.
• revenue: another source said $33.67 billion vs $33.4 billion expected
• also: guidance -- weaker-than-expected forecast
  

Spotify: down another 187% after hours. Subscriber guidance disappointed investors. Something for Apple to think about.

QCOM: easily beats 1Q22 (October - December) sales, earnings goals. profit taking after hours, but still a great day. Link here.

• EPS: $3.23 vs $3.01 expected
• sales of $10.7 billion vs $10.44 billion forecast
• one year earlier, QCOM earned $2.17/share on sales of $8.23 billion
  

Pricing:

• oil down marginally: yesterday's API report was more bullish than today's EIA report
• natural gas is surging: up 15%; up 70 cents; trading at $5.453.

Market reflections:

• SRE: up $1.61; up 1.18; this $124 stock is trading for $137.73;
• KMI: flat; up slightly;
• ENB: up 1%; up 43 cents; this $38 stock is trading for $43;
• EPD: flat; up slightly; trading at $23.84;
• LNG: up 1.22%; up $1.40; trading at $116.45

The PayPal debacle:

• PayPal is plunging; no one has anything good to say about the company on "talk" television;
• other similar companies, like Block, are also falling;
• no one is mentioning the gorilla in the room: Apple.
• Apple opened its "Wallet" to all credit cards; essentially eliminates the need for third party hardware that attaches to the iPhone and/or third-party software for payment

WTI hit $89 earlier today; fell back to $88.

• fell back not because of OPEC maintaining production increase; rather,
• the crude oil draw reported by EIA was disappointingly low compared to API data yesterday;
• the bad news: gasoline prices are lagging crude oil prices; gasoline prices will catch up as we move close to driving season;
• it is interesting that tensions between Russia / Ukraine seem not to be influencing price of oil

MPC: I said once upon a time I would never invest in refineries (again), but then:

• some months ago, starting building a position in MPC;
• wasn't following; wasn't paying attention; it's a long-term holding that I will continue to build
• today, a talking head on CNBC mentioned outstanding MPC results; I never knew; MPC up over 5% today;

ISO NE: burning oil. That same CNBC correspondent mentioned Boston burning oil to keep the lights on; was dumbfounded; finally folks are reading the blog; reporting the ISO NE story. I honestly don't think a lot of folks were aware of this.

COP earnings: to be released tomorrow morning, February 3, 2022, before market open;
what's in store?"

• consensus: $2.18 EPS forecast vs a loss of 19 cents last year
• revenue forecast: $13.34 billion; up 120% year-over-year

AAPL: nip and tuck whether it will finish in the green today.