The "Boogeyman" Returns -- August 17, 2019

Not ready for prime time. Two problems here. I am rushed for time but I want to start the conversation so I will post what I have, planning to come back to it later. But this essay is still in progress. Second, I am not a good writer, never have been. I am not as articulate as I need to be.

Note: do not parse phrases or sentences. Take the essay in its entirety; the "gestalt" as it were.

Updates

Later, 5:50 p.m. CT: this is so incredible. I proofed the essay below and then removed "In Progress" from the subject line. Then checking twitter for news about another issue, I come across a link to this Forbes article: 

Because some pipelines from the Marcellus traverse NY state on the way to other states, Governor Cuomo is essentially setting energy policy for all of New England. How does he get away with it? LOL. But it proves the point in the essay below.
 

The Essay

I'm looking for a better word than "boogeyman" to describe the phenomenon, but for now, I will use "boogeyman" as a placeholder.

There is no question there are bad actors at the nation-state level that would like to see the US oil industry severely constrained, if not destroyed altogether. At the top of that list would be Russia and certain state actors in the Mideast.

The success of the US shale revolution has now become an existential issue for Saudi Arabia and Iran; and possibly an existential issue for other Mideast countries, like Iraq.

If one looks at the past 20 years of the US shale story, one can start to see that mosaic of efforts to kill US shale.

The US crude oil shale revolution began in 2000 in Montana, but the real jump began in 2007 in Parshall, ND, with EOG's discovery well.

Fracking literally caught everyone by surprise. Had fracking developed slowly, I am convinced that the shale revolution never would have occurred. Had protestors been able to shut down fracking in Montana in 2001, or in North Dakota in 2007, that would have been the end of fracking. Lessons learned in the Bakken make the Permian possible. Had fracking been banned in North Dakota, those lessons would not have been learned. The Permian was a dead basin at the time. There are states that ban fracking (e.g., New York) so anyone who suggests that banning fracking across the US never would have happened carry no credibility as far as I am concerned. Does California ban fracking? I have to check again on this -- but for all intents and purposes, it is my myth (worldview) that fracking is dead in California. [In fact, I would go so far as to say that long term -- twenty years out -- the tea leaves tell me the California oil industry is dead.]

The bad actors at the nation-state level have so far been unable to stop US fracking but their efforts continue. Again, it's an existential issue for them. There are multiple ways to stop the success of the US shale sector.

Let's count the ways:

• stop pipelines; we'll come back to this later
• increased regulation
• higher production/extraction taxes 
• report every saltwater / crude oil spill as a headline story / major accident;
• plant "scary" stories:
• folks can't handle the boom
• exploding rail tankers: this was a big one -- not one death occurred in the US due to CBR; the one "mishap" in Canada was entirely bogus 
• plant fake stories: 
• decline rates will be the death knell of fracking
• companies can't make money fracking; and, banks will quit lending
• companies can't make money fracking; scare investors
• density projections in the Permian fall short
• production projections in the Permian fall short
• fracking causes smajor earthquakes
• fracking leads to global warming
• methane leaks are the real problems; methane emissions, more dangerous than CO2, are not surging
• oil industry gets huge "subsidies" from the government
• solar and wind energy is less expensive than oil
• global warming
• CO2 emissions 
• fracking and flaring: a danger to oil field workers (added August 19, 2019)

I don't consider myself a conspiracy theorist but if one wants to call me one on this issue that's fine with me.

And, now, the Bakken boogeyman, flaring, as "an issue" returns.

I don't see flaring as a boogeyman.

I see flaring as an opportunity.

And yes, Virginia, there is a way to completely eliminate flaring in the Bakken. Shut down all drilling in North Dakota and Montana.