Thursday, February 21, 2019

New Unemployment Claims Drop A Stunning 23,000 -- Well Below Even The Lowest Estimate -- February 21, 2019

Jobs (link here):
  • new claims
  • prior: 239K
  • consensus: 225K (a drop of 14K)
  • actual: 216K
Jobs: from the link above, this "analysis":
Claims pivoted higher early in the year largely on the effects of the government shutdown. With those effects now having waned, claims data are pointing to continued and unusually strong demand for labor. Comment: yes, start with the "higher" unemployment claims in the first paragraph, saving the really, really remarkable news for the second paragraph.]

Initial claims fell a very sharp 23,000 in the February 16 week to a 216,000 level that is 4,000 under Econoday's consensus range. Yet the 4-week average, reflecting the prior shutdown-related increases, rose 4,000 to 235,750 (unsaid: skewed by the government shutdown).

What these results indicate for February's employment report, however, is perhaps unclear. The February 16 week was the sample week for the monthly employment report and comparisons with the sample week for the January report do point to easing strength, up 4,000 at the headline level in February and up a sizable 15,250 for the 4-week average. But the enormous strength of January's employment report, headlined by a 304,000 surge in non-farm payrolls, suggests that even a little softer results could still equate to a very strong employment report for February.
Jobs: what are others saying about this huge drop in unemployment claims. This was really quite stunning.
  • not even linked at Drudge Report yet
  • jobs story nowhere to be found at CNBC
  • jobs story buried over at Fox Business: link here; 
  • headline story over at CNBC: market falls 100 points after weak economic data; that data?
    • US existing home sales fall sharply to 3-year low; house prices rose only modestly
  • how bad were housing sales?
    • analysts forecast an annual rate of 5.0 million units
    • actual: 4.94 million units
  • let's get a grip folks
    • false precision: 5.0 - 4.94 million = 60,000 houses (1.2%)
    • big story for past month -- partial government shutdown
    • paperwork processing slowed; folks unable to qualify if laid off
    • huge winter storms; kept people from housing market 
    • and the snow continues, even in Las Vegas 
**********************************
Nuisance Suit Thrown Out By Federal Judge

Link at Reuters.

Two boys, ages 7 and 11, diagnosed with asthma, sued President Trump/EPA for rolling back global warming regulations.

Tossed.

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