Australia, As Predicted, Experiencing Brownouts And Blackouts Because Consumers Are Using Too Much Electricity -- January 28, 2018

So, here it is, as predicted by a reader of the blog: brownouts and blackouts in Australia. From the article:

Mr Armstrong from Ausnet Services (another power company) blamed unreported air conditioners:

“There are a lot fuses blowing in the hot weather and a significant power pull with people having put in air-conditioners they didn’t tell us about,” Mr Armstrong said. 

Who knew you needed to tell your power company when you put in an air conditioner?

I assume Elon Musk is watching closely.

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The Australian Grid

"ISO Australia": Spot prices for Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania -- note the spot price for electricity earlier in the day, in excess of $3,000/MWh --

There is no question in any sentient American that we would have been headed down the same path had Hillary been elected president.

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From A Reader 

(Electricity Consultant and Expert)

First:

If power prices hadn't spiked I would accept the "official" explanation that it was a local distribution system problem... transformers/conductors too small resulting in overheating and open fuses. Doesn't sound right does it? My hunch is low voltage from lack of on line capacity caused current to increase and open fuses. Sure, once these fuses opened they had sufficient power on the grid (load shedding).

Second:

Bull feathers...the junk power coming from all those wind turbines would make any system "blow fuses". It must be nearly impossible to maintain a stable electrical grid with a major component of wind power.

It's not just the varying wind speed that makes the output power nasty...see below: IEEE lists seven (7) power "disturbances". All seven of these are more of an issue with a variable, intermittent, on again off again wind generator than a conventional coal or gas generator. Example: Compare 500 wind turbines at two MW each vs. a coal-fired 1000 MW generation station...7x500 potential "disturbances" for the wind mills vs 7x1 for the coal-fired unit!!!

The reader quotes this from the news article:

The variable nature of wind energy sources (in terms of the real power, reactive power, output voltage, and frequency) is a major challenging issue.

The conversion of an input AC power at a given frequency and voltage to an output power at different frequency and voltage can be obtained with static circuits called power converters, containing controllable power electronic devices.

Note 1: These power converters use diodes and filters to convert the AC from the generator attached to the turbine to DC. This is necessary to smooth the constantly changing generated current. Then the DC current must be inverted to AC to be compatible with the electrical grid.

Note 2: See below item 5 (for example). Waveform distortion...some of this DC from the converter/inverter will certainly leak into the AC output as the diodes age and fail...believe me I've seen diode leakage/failure problems for 30 plus years maintaining AC to DC rectifiers on pipeline cathodic protection systems.

IEEE: ... power quality disturbances... have been organized into seven categories based on wave shape: 1. Transients 2. Interruptions 3. Sag / Undervoltage 4. Swell / Overvoltage 5. Waveform distortion 6. Voltage fluctuations 7. Frequency variations

Wind? The gift that keeps on giving. 

Oldest Well In North Dakota Now "Inactive" -- January 28, 2018

From an earlier post:

I believe #35 is the oldest active well in North Dakota.

Two payzone well, total production, ~ 2.2 million bbls since 1951; still active

• 35, 503/PNA, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit H-310, s8/51; t4/52; Madison, 216K; PNA 
• 35, 263, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit H-310, t3/60; Devonian, 2.08 million bbls; still active; almost 1,500 bbls monthly, 8/14; around 1,000 bbls monthly in 2015; Went inactive 12/13; back on line as of 8/15; cum 2.091755 million bbls 7/17; 
• Note: #35 is the oldest well in North Dakota still producing; all but two or three wells earlier than #35 were dry.  Well #2 was completed in 1923; well #1 was completed in 1916, in Ward County; it tested positive for trace oil. The Clarence Iverson well that started it all was drilled in 1951 (#25).

According to the scout ticket it looks like #35 went inactive in July, 2017:

NDIC File No: 35     API No: 33-105-00007-00-00     CTB No: 400035 Well Type: OG     Well Status: IA     Status Date: 10/15/2017     Wellbore type: Vertical Location: SWNE 31-156-95     Footages: 1980 FNL 1980 FEL     Latitude: 48.293098     Longitude: -102.944139 Current Operator: HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC Current Well Name: BEAVER LODGE-DEVONIAN UNIT H-310 Elevation(s): 2329 KB     Total Depth: 13325     Field: BEAVER LODGE Spud Date(s):  8/22/1951 Casing String(s):  9.625" 6014'   5.5" 10823'   Completion Data    Pool: DEVONIAN     Perfs: 10232-10450G     Comp: 3/5/1960     Status: AL     Date: 3/5/1960     Spacing: U    Pool: MADISON     Perfs: 8555-8590     Comp: 4/25/1952     Status: PNA     Date: 2/19/1960     Spacing: U    Pool: RED RIVER     Comp: 4/25/1952     Status: DRY     Date: 4/25/1952 Cumulative Production Data    Pool: MADISON     Cum Oil: 216488     Cum MCF Gas: 113622     Cum Water: 4547    Pool: DEVONIAN     Cum Oil: 2091755     Cum MCF Gas: 1061915     Cum Water: 1682237 Production Test Data    IP Test Date: 4/25/1952     Pool: MADISON     IP Oil: 503     IP MCF: 57     IP Water: 7    IP Test Date: 3/5/1960     Pool: DEVONIAN     IP Oil: 263     IP MCF: 240     IP Water: 25

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare DEVONIAN 11-2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEVONIAN 10-2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEVONIAN 9-2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEVONIAN 8-2017 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 DEVONIAN 7-2017 12 315 342 1620 293 293 0 DEVONIAN 6-2017 28 775 762 4360 883 883 0 DEVONIAN 5-2017 31 772 775 3533 610 610 0

Chronologically by permit number, the next well that was recently still active was #443:

• 443, IA/409, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Madison Unit S-27HR, Beaver Lodge, Madison, t8/54; cum 747 4/17 (last month of any production; it appears this well was re-entered in 2003 as a re-entry second leg horizontal; and re-named

Chronologically by permit number, the oldest well that is still active is #554:

• 554, 408, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-128HR, Beaver Lodge, Madison, t8/54; cum 273K 11/17; in the file report, there is a letter dated March 29, 2017, stripper well status; it appears that in 1999 that the well was re-entered; and re-named; producing since 1954, this well is still active, having produced for about 64 years;

The Energy And Market Page, T+7 -- January 28, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship-related decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer. I did, for the first time in my life, buy some shares in RDS-B about six months ago. They will become a long-term holding and I will add to these shares over time but I have no plans to buy any more shares in the immediate future. I will wait for the 15% correction that CNBC seems to keep talking about. LOL. Their senior markets commentator keeps suggesting that the market may "overshoot" (whatever that means).

Shell, from The [London] Telegraph via Yahoo!Finance:

Royal Dutch Shell is set to unveil its highest earnings since the oil market collapse this week, just one year after the oil major’s lowest profits in more than a decade.

The Anglo-Dutch oil group’s efforts to overhaul its portfolio during the depths of the oil market rout are expected to be turbo-charged by the recovery in oil prices to over $65 a barrel last year, from under $30 a barrel at their lowest point in early 2016.

Analysts predict the group’s earnings on a “current cost of supply” basis will be more than $15.7bn (£11bn) for 2017 from just $3.5bn (£2.5bn) the year before. The final quarter of last year is expected to generate higher earnings than the whole of 2016 at $4.2bn (£3bn).

The startling turnaround from Shell’s disappointing 2016 results, which were even lower than in 2015, comes in the wake of a diligent focus on financial discipline following the mega-deal to take over BG Group, the gas giant, at the depths of the market rout.

Dow futures: futures mean squat, but Dow futures are green and have been improving since 6:00 p.m. EST earlier this evening.

AAPL: earnings to be reported after market close on February 1, 2018. Apple, Inc, predicted in November, 2017, this quarter (ending December, 2017) will be its biggest quarter ever.

AAPL: initial reviews of the HomePod suggest it's knocking the socks off those who have tried it. Exceeding expectations across the board. Disclaimer: I am an Apple fanboy; fanboy #3 to be exact.

North Dakota On Track For New Crude Oil Production Record In 2018 -- Zacks -- January 28, 2018

From Zacks.

As per North Dakota’s oil regulator, the state’s daily crude output rose 0.9% in November after climbing 6.9% in the previous month.

Reflecting a healthy increase, the newest numbers confirm the resurgence in volumes extracted from North Dakota, centered on the Bakken Shale formation. As daily output consolidated above 1 million barrels for the tenth month in a row, the state’s total number of producing wells numbered 14,324 at the end of November, a new all-time high.

Interestingly, natural gas output was up 1.4% in November to 2,095,342 thousand cubic feet per day – another record – as operators scrambled to the core areas of the Bakken where wells tend to produce more gas along with crude.

Some 54 drilling rigs were active in the state in November. The all-time low of 27 was set in May 2016, while a year ago, North Dakota had just 37 rigs operating. A closely watched yardstick of North Dakota oil industry's strength, the year-over-year improvement in the number of units searching for oil and gas in the region indicates essentially steady drilling activities and production. However, the rig count is still down considerably from the peak of May 2012 when North Dakota had 218 units drilling.

More rigs in operation and stable production not only confirms the positive developments for the state of North Dakota, but also points to the rising flood of U.S. shale-driven production.

Now at a financial equilibrium, the shale firms are putting more rigs and employees back to work. Throughout the downturn, producers (in North Dakota and particularly the Permian Basin in Texas) worked tirelessly to cut costs down to a bare minimum and look for innovative ways to churn out more oil from rock. And they managed to do just that by improving drilling techniques.

Indecision Delays IPO Launch -- January 28, 2018

From The Wall Street Journal: the Aramco IPO s stalled by indecision over where to list. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil producer continues to weigh risks of listing in New York, London, Hong Kong or locally.

Most likely it's due to all those "transparency" rules over at the NYSE.

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The Road To New England

Updates

February 2, 2018: New Hampshire site evaluation committee votes unanimously to deny the "right-of-way."

Original Note

 
A reader sent me this note:

• executive summary, in a couple of weeks, a crucial decision will be made by small, New Hampshire board (Site Election Committee)  on whether or not to allow Northern Pass transmission line to be built through state
• the 1,000 Mw - to be sourced by Quebec Hydro - was chosen days ago by Massachusetts to be supplier to fulfill "renewable' mandates
• problem? not yet built nor even approved. And the approval is far from certain as ALL the juice will be sent on power lines despoiling NH mountainsides for Mass' consumption
• if the line is approved, court fights will immediately ensue
• if the line is approved, it will be a near miracle to be in service late 2020, a full year AFTER Pilgrim nuke is retired
• Bottom line is NE is entering 'interesting' times.

So, there are two problems here:

• decision yet to be made; tea leaves not particularly helpful; in New England many decisions on energy seem capricious
• at least a year, maybe more, for a huge energy gap

Map and story here, final vote delayed until March 30, 2018, so we'll see in a couple of months. 

Background, from UtilityDive:

• Massachusetts chose the Northern Pass transmission project to supply 9,450,000 MWh of renewable energy annually to the state's utilities to meet goals established in the Global Warming Solutions Act passed two years ago.
• Northern Pass, owned by Eversource Energy, is developing a 192-mile transmission line that would move power from Hydro-Quebec dams in Canada to a substation in Deerfield, N.H. Northern Pass will provide up to 9.4 TWh of hydropower annually, while also reducing  wholesale energy costs, project backers say.
• The transmission line will begin at the Canadian border in Pittsburg, N.H., and will extend 192 miles to the point where it connects to the New England electric grid. Sections of the line will also be buried along roadways to reduce the impact of views around the White Mountain National Forest. Contract negotiations are expected to be completed by March 27 and sent to regulators by April 25 for review, according to the state's timeline.

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The Road To California

The California PUC suggests the natural gas crisis is so acute that utilities should place a moratorium on new natural gas hook-ups for commercial and industrial customers. Wow, this will encourage new commercial and industrial customers to relocate and/or expand in California. By the way, look at the trend in the cost of energy in southern California.