Saudi Arabia Begins Buying New Patriot Missiles From The US -- July 30, 2015

This is where  I track Mideast geo-politics in light of the slump in oil prices which I date from October, 2014.

The Weekly Standard reports that Saudi Arabia is requesting more missiles from the US:

Just two weeks after Western nations and Tehran struck a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program, the Pentagon says Saudi Arabia wants to buy 600 new Patriot missile interceptors.

This “$5 billion-plus purchase is likely just the first of many more as America’s Middle Eastern allies arm themselves in response to the nuclear deal, which would lift Iran’s conventional-arms embargo sanctions in five years and sanctions on long-range missile projects in eight.”

Turkey, meanwhile, is shopping for its antimissile defenses in China.

So one immediate consequence of the deal is … an arms race.

Prior to all this, Saudi's budget was based on "$100-oil." Now that the US is no longer responsible for Saudi's security (the Obama Doctrine), something tells me that Saudi is about ready to quit giving away its oil for $50/bbl. 

XTO Donates $5 Million For Affordable Housing For Teachers, Police, In Three Bakken Communities

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

XTO Energy announced Monday a $5 million donation that will help provide affordable housing for teachers, police and other essential personnel in three of the state’s busiest oil communities.  

The oil company’s contribution to North Dakota’s Housing Incentive Fund will support four housing projects in Williston, Watford City and Killdeer. Half of the 287 multi-family units are targeted for low-income residents or employees of cities, counties, medical facilities, school districts or law enforcement.

XTO, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil with more than 100 employees in North Dakota, selected which housing projects would receive the funds.

XTO is now the largest contributor to the Housing Incentive Fund, a program created in the 2011 legislative session that provides low-cost financing to developers of affordable multi-family housing. Individuals and businesses who contribute to the fund receive a dollar-for-dollar state income tax credit.

Some readers are waiting for the FPL, one of the largest renewable energy providers in the state, to make a contribution. 

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He's Back

Brian Williams will join MSNBC as a breaking news anchor. He will, no doubt, add some credibility to the network.

Two (2) New Permits -- North Dakota -- July 30, 2015

Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:

• 24158, 954, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 11-15PH, Park, Three Forks, 40 stages, 5.5 million lbs all sand, t2/15; cum 40K 5/15;
• 24159, 1,195 Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 14-10PH, Park, Three Forks, 40 stages, 5.3 million lbs all sand, t2/15; cum 42K 5/15;
• 28524, 315, EOG, Parshall 151-1608H, Parshall, 40 stages, 8 million lbs sand, t2/15; cum 66K 5/15;
• 29492, drl, XTO, Rita 44X-34G, Tobacco Garden, no production data,
• 29613, drl, WPX,Olive Mae 7-8-9HX, Van Hook, no production data,
• 29972, drl/NC, Enerplus, Quilt 149-93-04D-03H, Mandaree, no production data,
• 30340, drl, XTO, Lundin 14X-33EXF, Siverston, no production data,  

Active rigs:

	7/30/2015	07/30/2014	07/30/2013	07/30/2012	07/30/2011
Active Rigs	73	191	181	206	183

The number of active rigs has held at exactly "73" for several days now. I wonder if the individual who inputs this data is on vacation?

Two (2) new permits --

• Operator: SM Energy
• Fields: Skabo (Divide), Frazier (Divide)
• Comments:

Seven (7) producing wells completed:

• 26221, 2,446, BR, Harley 41-2MBH, Blue Buttes, ICO, t6/15; cum --
• 27518, 1,117, XTO, Guy Federal 24X-35F2, Grinnell, t7/15; cum --
• 28664, 1,921, MRO, Kerkhoff 14-8H, Murphy Creek, 4 sections, t7/15; cum --
• 28694, 1,799, MRO, Wehrung 150-99-13-23-5H, South Tobacco Garden, t7/14; cum 91K 5/15;
• 28695, 1,639, MRO, Hazel 14-8H, Murphy Creek, t7/15; cum --
• 28711, 2,124, BR, Harley 31-2TFH-R, Blue Buttes, ICO, t7/15; cum --
• 29210, 2,900, MRO, Tony Lun USA 12-14TH, Reunion Bay, ICO, t6/15; cum -

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- July 30, 2015; "Grid Alert" In Texas Because Wind Energy Not Reaching Nameplate Capacity

NG fill rate (dynamic link): the numbers are wrong, the fill rate adds up to 51, not 52. There are a couple of addition / subtraction errors in the "Producing / Salt / Nonsalt" part of the table - at least two simple arithmetic errors.

In the East Region, stocks were 60 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 42 Bcf.

I assume a lot of natural gas is being used to replace coal, and that there is a lot of demand for air conditioning today.

Note the arithmetic errors in this very simple spreadsheet -- maintained by the same government that predicts dire consequences of global warming 100 years from now. (It's possible these numbers are rounded from raw data resulting in the errors.)

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Grid Alert In Texas

By the way, there's a "grid alert" in north Texas today. Folks are being asked to minimize use of electricity today; the grid is having trouble keeping up .... and part of the problem --- the wind is not blowing hard enough to for turbines to reach nameplate capacity. By the time the backup natural gas / coal power plants are ramped up, the "grid alert" will be over.

Thursday, July 20, 2015 -- Part IV

This is not an investment site.

Yet to report:
EEP: some time today
HK: press release here. 

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I'm Confused

COP beats by 3 cents.

This is a screenshot of a Bloomberg headline, but the link is broken is Bloomberg writing their stories before the story is known?):

So, that Bloomberg headline says very clearly that COP reports better-than-expected profit, but then the AP reports that COP reported a loss in 2Q15. 

But it is confusing. The AP says ConocoPhillips lost $179 million in the second quarter, but reported that earnings came to 7 cents/share. Whatever.

From a Seeking Alpha contributor:

ConocoPhillips is among the first of the big oil companies to release second quarter earnings. ConocoPhillips said today it had second quarter revenues of $8.7 billion, which was 41% less than the $14.7 billion the company reported in the second quarter of fiscal 2014.

ConocoPhillips had a 2Q15 net loss of $179 million after squeezing out a profit of $272 million in 1Q15 and $2.1 billion in the year ago quarter. On a per share basis, ConocoPhillips reported a net loss of $0.15 per share, which compares against a profit of $0.22 per share in the previous quarter and a profit of $1.67 per share in 2Q14.

On an adjusted basis, ConocoPhillips pulled in $0.07 per share, which was significantly lower than last year's $1.61 per share, but the company beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.05 per share.

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There Must Be A Story Here

Zacks is reporting:

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation reported a second-quarter 2015 adjusted earnings of 1 cent per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was at a loss of 54 cents. This amounted to a positive earnings surprise of 101.9%. In the second quarter of 2014, the company had reported earnings of $1.32 per share.

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Okay, Not So Bad

Carbo Ceramics: reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.41 per share, excluding $7.6 million, or $0.33 per share, of after-tax costs primarily associated with slowing and idling production, $0.27 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.68); revenues fell 58.5% year/year to $73.3 mln vs the $70.37 mln consensus.

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Nice

Helmerich & Payne beats by $0.13, beats on revs: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.13 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.14; revenues fell 30.7% year/year to $659.7 mln vs the $607.25 mln consensus.

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OXY

Occidental Petro misses by $0.01, misses on revs : Reports Q2 (Jun) adj. earnings of $0.21 per share, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.22; revenues fell 32.4% year/year to $3.47 bln vs the $3.59 bln consensus. From the press release:

"Our second quarter production increased to 658,000 BOE per day from last year's 580,000 BOE per day, an increase of 13 percent with 78 percent of the increase from oil. The increase was led by Permian Resources, which delivered a 51 percent increase to 109,000 BOE per day, of which oil production grew by 31,000 barrels a day. Operating costs in the U.S. were down to $13 per BOE from $14.50 in 2014. Our second quarter capital was about $250 million lower than the first quarter and over 25 percent lower than the same period last year. Higher production volumes, improved well performance in the Permian, and higher product prices resulted in an increase of about $400 million in operating cash flow before working capital compared to the first quarter.

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Valero

Valero beats on earnings. Earnings per share from continuing operations came in at $2.66, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.41