Friday, December 12, 2014

Slump In Oil Price, October 1, 2014 - December 31, 2014: Mid-East Geo-Politics

Mid-East Geo-Politics

Pricing, Part I


Updates


February 1, 2016: Mideast politics suggests Saudi won't cut production despite recent reports that Russia/Saudi were talking about cooperating on cuts.

August 23, 2015: WSJ sits down with Saudi general

July 30, 2015: Saudi Arabia to buy 600 Patriot missiles from the US; $5 billion -- The Weekly Standard.

April 18, 2015: US arms sales to the Mideast, especially Saudi Arabia -- NYT

January 23, 2015: 90-year-old Saudi king dies; 80-year-old brother assumes throne;

December 22, 2014: more clarity -- CLR, Hamm, Forbes, Saudi, Iran, Russia

We start off with: is President Obama organizing communities in the Mideast?


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Six Dots To Connect

Six dots to connect:
I tell my granddaughters, when something doesn't make sense:
  • follow the money
  • ask the question, "Why now?"
  • google it 
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The Six Dots

Is President Obama getting ready to throw Israel under the bus?
  • sanctions on Israel being discussed by the Obama administration -- Christian Science Monitor, December 8, 2014
  • little downside risk: Obama no longer up for re-election; already lost House, Senate (not much more to lose, except veto-proof majority in Senate -- unlikely)
  • Obama needs major legacy initiative
  • presidents are change agents
  • most of his initiatives will die within next ten years (global warming, ObamaCare); needs a legacy
  • throwing Israel under the bus changes the dynamics in the Mideast
  • Saudi has thrown Obama administration under the bus; tit-for-tat
Does Saudi see Russia's hand in Syria-Isis-al-Qaeda?
  • the answer seems pretty obvious
  • with Obama creating a vacuum in the Mideast, will Saudi's alliance with Israel become move transparent?
  • slump in prices, feeling the pain: Venezuela, Iran, Russia, off-shore oil, Canadian oil sands, US shale -- pretty much in that order

3 comments:

  1. I saw this idea and can't reject it.

    If GCC and Israel plan to nuke Iran, would they flood market with oil first to ease shortage and fear when they do it?

    Hmm

    Anon 1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. That's why I enjoy connecting dots.

      You must have read my mind. Earlier I sent this short e-mail to a reader but did not post it. (At least I don't think I did; if I did, it explains you note.)

      "Saudi Arabia has one weapon: oil.

      Iran has one weapon (for now): blocking the straits. Pundits say that would be hard to do; I'm not so sure."

      Delete
    2. Seeing Christiane Amanpour reporting from somewhere in the Mideast will be the last dot to connect.

      Delete