Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Random Look At Some New Whiting Activity In The Sanish; Ness And Brown Wells -- January 28, 2020

The four-well pad of interest (note the "chronologic" number:
  • 18244, 3,014, Whiting, Ness 44-21H, Sanish, t1/10; cum 557K 11/19; an incredibly non-descript well that quietly goes over 500K cumulative oil;
  • 37090, loc, Whiting, Ness 44-21-2TFH, Sanish,
  • 37091, ros (January 2020), Whiting, Ness 44-21 2H, Sanish,
  • 37092, drl, Whiting, Ness 44-21-21HU, Sanish, 

  • 20505, 2,868, Whiting, Brown 41-28XH, Sanish, t3/12; cum 409K 11/19;
  • 25728, 892, Whiting, Brown 41-28-2XH, Sanish, t10/13; cum 237K 11/19;

  • 19250, 2,686, Whiting, Ness 43-21, Sanish, t10/10; cum 482K 11/19;
  • 20378, 225, Whiting, Ness 44-21TFH, Sanish, t8/11; cum 143K 11/19;

  • 21546, 537, Whiting, Lahti 12-22TFH, Sanish, t3/12; cum 195K 11/19;

  • 28035, 1,199, Whiting, Ness 41-21-3XH, Sanish, t8/14; cum 323K 11/19;
  • 28036, 713, Whiting, Ness 41-21-2XH, Sanish, t8/14; cum 250K 11/19;
  • 20826, 2.432, Whiting, Ness 41-21XH, Sanish, t10/11; cum 462K 11/19;

Graphics:



What's Going On Out In Eightmile? Nine Point Energy Active -- January 28, 2020

Updates

September 21, 2020:

  • 34788, drl/A, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-6H, Eightmile, no production data,
  • 34787, drl/A, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-5H, Eightmile, no production data,
  • 34786, drl/A, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, Eightmile, producing, 54K over 4.5 months; see this post;

May 30, 2020: these wells have been updated here; at a later date this post will be updated but I want folks to see what this looked like back in November, and compare to that to the update at the link. Updated graphic:


Original Post

Eightmile oil field is southwest of Williston, heading out toward Montana, north of the river. I would consider this immediate area Tier 2, maybe Tier 3, based on historic activity. But all of a sudden, a bit of activity.

The wells:
  • 34783, 1,004, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-1H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 221K 3/20; a 24K month; off line 3/20; remains off line 4/20;
  • 34784, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 207K 11/19; a 30K month; off line 11/19; remains off line 4/20;
  • 34785, 1,083, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-3H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 242K 11/19; a 24K month; off line 11/19; remains off line 4/20;
  • 34786, drl, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-4H, Eightmile,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-2020119172886
    3-20207390
  • 34787, drl, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-5H, Eightmile,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-2020169076850
    3-2020697466
  • 34788, drl, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-6H, Eightmile,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-2020165357390
    3-20203513


  • 36157, 895, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H, Eightmile, t12/19; cum 105K 4/20;
  • 36156, 1,018, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-11H, Eightmile, producing, 7K in first report; unknown number of days; t12/19; cum 106K 4/20;
  • 36155, 983, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-110H, Eightmile, producing, 17K in first report; unknown number of days; t11/19; cum 118K 4/20;
  • 37259, drl, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-9H, Eightmile,
  • 37258, rig-on-site (January, 2020), Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-8H, Eightmile,

Graphics:



New Mexico May Be Newest Member Of The One-Million-Bbl Club -- Rystad -- January 28, 2020

At another post, a reader commented:
NM nipping at your heels, ND. Rystad thinks they broke into the millionare (state bopd) club in NOV or DEC:

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/new-mexico-flirts-with-1-million-bpd-oil-threshold/. 
This is the link: https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/new-mexico-flirts-with-1-million-bpd-oil-threshold/.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 28, 2020

XOM, Guyana: 16th Stabroek discovery. Ninety-four feet of high-quality oil -bearing sandstone.
XOM has now raised its recoverable resource estimate from this play by 2 billion boe to more than 8 million boe. Link here. Peak oil? What peak oil?
Selling out Putin? This and several other stories suggest huge developments for Russia.
Facing economic collapse and painful sanctions, the socialist government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has proposed giving majority shares and control of its oil industry to big international corporations, a move that would forsake decades of state monopoly.
Maduro’s representatives have held talks with Russia’s Rosneft PJSC, Repsol SA of Spain and Italy’s Eni SpA. The idea is to allow them to take over government-controlled oil properties and restructure some debt of state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA in exchange for assets, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Brooge: link here.
Brooge Petroleum and Gas Investment Co. plans to expand its crude-storage capacity six-fold at the Middle Eastern port of Fujairah to meet “huge” demand at the busiest oil-trading hub in the region.
The United Arab Emirates-based business will sign contracts by the end of the first quarter, or soon after, to lease out the additional capacity, Chief Executive Officer Nicolaas Paardenkooper said in an interview. It will complete a study for the project over the same period and may start construction work by the end of 2020.
********************************* 
Party Like It's 1999

I've talked about this before: I'm convinced the 2020's in the US will be one of the best decades for investing ever. And that comes after an incredible past four years. Re-posting:

2020: party like it's 1999. Americans to inherit almost $1 trillion this year ... tax-free. I've talked about this before. I might have to come up with a new tag. We'll see. Related, recently: pipelines; BlackRock; $13 trillion; SecureAct; mandatory distributions.

The EV revolution will happen around 2025. Re-posting:
A reader sent me a link to "GM to invest $2.2 billion in Detroit plant to produce electric cars." Google it.
My reply, not ready for prime time:
The auto manufacturers are all getting ready for the mandates that will be put in place in 2021, or 2025 at the latest, when Trump is out of office.

At some point, the auto manufacturers will have poured so much money into the EV scheme, that "too big to fail" will be "new" again; and the government will have no choice but to mandate EVs for all. If not, a lot of US manufacturers will fail, and a lot of stateside manufacturing plants will close regardless of whether they are Japanese, German, or Korean.

It will be a huge transition for everyone on such a huge scale. The infrastructure alone that is needed is huge: just the neighborhood transformers (GE) that will all need upgrading. The utilities will have to expand exponentially to handle the electricity / grid issues. Solar / wind won't keep up, and natural gas will be the bridge (a bridge that will last at least 50 years) before we transition to small, modular nuclear reactors.

A lot of mechanics, service station attendants, will be looking for new work. A whole ICE supply chain will disappear. NAPA Parts? How about NAPA Departs?

I don't see investing in automobile companies as particularly attractive: the margins won't be huge; batteries are simply too expensive, and no "moat" -- every auto manufacturer will be building them. Competition will be incredibly stiff. But infrastructure investing might be different: utilities, charging networks (copper wiring?), GE transformers, commodities such as lithium, cobalt. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Looks LIke Another "Natural" Advantage Of Bakken Crude Oil Over "Permian" Oil -- RBN Energy; Oil Touched Bottom, Reverses -- January 28, 2020

5-4: The Supreme Court ruled Monday that the Trump administration can block thousands of immigrants from receiving public assistance while legal challenges continue.
Under the Department of Homeland Security rule, legal immigrants receiving or deemed likely to need non-cash benefits for more than a year, such as food stamps, Medicaid or housing vouchers, can be denied residency or green cards.
XOM: oh-oh. Promised turnaround did not happen.  Share price lowest in decades.

2020: party like it's 1999. Americans to inherit almost $1 trillion this year ... tax-free. I've talked about this before. I might have to come up with a new tag. We'll see. Related, recently: pipelines; BlackRock; $13 trillion; SecureAct; mandatory distributions.

EVs: a reader sent me a link to "GM to invest $2.2 billion in Detroit plant to produce electric cars." Google it. My reply, not ready for prime time:
The auto manufacturers are all getting ready for the mandates that will be put in place in 2021, or 2025 at the latest, when Trump is out of office.

At some point, the auto manufacturers will have poured so much money into the EV scheme, that "too big to fail" will be "new" again; and the government will have no choice but to mandate EVs for all. If not, a lot of US manufacturers will fail, and a lot of stateside manufacturing plants will close regardless of whether they are Japanese, German, or Korean.

It will be a huge transition for everyone on such a huge scale. The infrastructure alone that is needed is huge: just the neighborhood transformers (GE) that will all need upgrading. The utilities will have to expand exponentially to handle the electricity / grid issues. Solar / wind won't keep up, and natural gas will be the bridge (a bridge that will last at least 50 years) before we transition to small, modular nuclear reactors.

A lot of mechanics, service station attendants, will be looking for new work. A whole ICE supply chain will disappear. NAPA Parts? How about NAPA Departs?

I don't see investing in automobile companies as particularly attractive: the margins won't be huge; batteries are simply too expensive, and no "moat" -- every auto manufacturer will be building them. Competition will be incredibly stiff. But infrastructure investing might be different: utilities, charging networks (copper wiring?), GE transformers, commodities such as lithium, cobalt.

As oil fields mature, they become more "gassy." Thus, the oil fields of the Permian, the Eagle Ford, the Bakken, the D-J, etc. will gradually transition from oil to gas -- competing with the Appalachian region.

I've been transitioning my portfolio from oil to utilities, mostly for the dividends, but also the "writing on the wall."
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$53.561/28/202001/28/201901/28/201801/28/201701/28/2016
Active Rigs5565573846

Three wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, January 28, 2020: 94 for the month; 94 for the quarter, 94 for the year:
  • 36466, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 23-14HD,
  • 35886, conf, Liberty Resources Management, Morgen 158-93-20-17-2TFH,
  • 35619, conf, Whiting, Fladeland 44-9-3H, 
RBN Energy: how disparate Permian crude quality impacts new pipeline and export infrastructure.
To say that Permian crude oil quality varies is an understatement at best. In fact, there’s as much variety in the crude coming out of West Texas as there is in the arsenal of a major league pitching ace. Handling those varied crude qualities is the challenge of midstream operators, who, like batters facing down a Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez in their prime, need to do the best they can with what they’re given. With the start of spring training only a month away, we begin a series detailing the current mix of Permian crude oil qualities, how pipelines are handling them, and what it means for exports, the end destination for much of today’s incremental Permian oil production. Today, we discuss Permian crude quality variations and the steps new pipelines are taking to deal with it.