Thursday, May 23, 2019

Four New Permits; One New Operator In The Bakken; WTI Falls Over 5% -- May 23, 2019

Active rigs:

$58.125/23/201905/23/201805/23/201705/23/201605/23/2015
Active Rigs6465512582

Four new permits:
  • Operator: KODA Resources Operating, LLC (see this post) (2); WPX Energy (2)
  • Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County); South Fork (Dunn County)
  • Comments: KODA has permits for a 2-well Stout pad in section 29-160-102, Fertile Valley
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33027, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
  • 33026, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
  • 33025, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H1, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
    • neighboring wells
      • to the east, running same direction
        • 18138, nice jump in production;
        • 19503, remains off line as of 3/19;
      • to the west, running same direction, south to north
        • 19397, remains off line as of 3/19;
      • to the north, running same direction, south to north
        • 20804, remains off line as of 3/19;
        • 24473, back on line for 13 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19;
        • 20805, back on line for 11 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19;

New Operator In The Bakken: KODA Resources Operating, LLC -- May 23, 2019

KODA Resources: website.

KODA has two permits:
  • 36500, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2917-1BH, Fertile Valley, 
  • 36501, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2932-2TH, Fertile Valley, 
According to LinkedIn:
  • Osman Apaydin: founder, president, and CEO; June, 2018 - present
    • prior: 12 years 6 months with EOG
    • prior: Schlumberger, 1998 - 2005
    • BS, Petroleum Engineering, Istanbul Technical University
    • MSc, Petroleum Engineering, Stanford University
    • PhD, Petroleum Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
  • Jason McLaren, Landman at KODA Resources;

Ready, Set, Go -- And The Market Went -- Down -- May 23, 2019

Updates

May 29, 2019: Boeing faces difficult recovery from protracted 737 MAX grounding -- WSJ.

May 25, 2019: that didn't take long. Two days ago I suggested it was going to be a lot longer than Boeing suggested before the 737 Max 8 was back flying. Now this, from The Wall Street Journal, "MAX's return to flight delayed by FAA's re-evaluation of safety procedures for older 737 models. The agency is considering changes in how pilots are trained to respond when the flight-control computer or other systems erroneously pus the plane's nose down."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make an investment, financial, job, travel or relationship decision based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Original Post

With the market plummeting today (after two weeks of really bearish days), the mainstream media will continue to blame the China issue (which they can blame on Trump issue, as if there's only one party involved here).

I don't buy it.

I don't buy the mainstream media suggesting this all about the China trade issue.

The China trade issue has been going on for weeks (months?).

Why did the market plummet today? Certainly not due to the China trade issue -- an issue with no news today.

What happened today that was news? Hold that thought; I'll come back to that.

What happened yesterday that was news? Hold that thought; I'll come back to that.

What happened two days ago that was news? Hold that thought: I'll come back to that.

Some data points:
  • May: "Sell in May and go away."
  • Ticker symbols:
    • AAPL:  caught up in many, many issues; the China issue exacerbates all of Apple's issues.
    • Boeing: unlikely to get the "737 MAX 8" in the air by the end of June; the original date suggested by Boeing. In fact the tea leaves suggest the MAX 8 won't be back in the air before the end of the year.
    • QCOM: judge rules company guilty of monopolistic practices; stock plummets 12% on ruling;
    • TSLA: implodes
    • XLNX: says rollout of 5G to take much longer than expected; affects all telecom; most chips; much of the tech sector; in fact, 5G may be stalled / killed due to health concerns
  • Oil: oil profits down this past quarter; the #1-traded commodity in the world, plummets today, unrelated to the stock market but affecting the market

  • US farming: okay, -- I'll give the mainstream media that one -- the farmers are scared but it was not simply the China trade issue (but that was huge for farmers); but now the huge flooding in the midwest exacerbates the trade issue
So, now, the news that rocked the market:
  • READY -- two days ago: the price of oil continued to drop; that tension in the Mideast was amounting to nothing; API reports huge crude oil inventory -- prepping the market for a drop;
  • SET -- yesterday: EIA confirms API's data -- huge crude oil inventory (pulls oil sector down); Trump walks away from biggest infrastructure bill in history -- not going to happen this year;  rumor has it that the infrastructure bill at $2 trillion was twice what it would have been last year; market now ready to drop;
  • GO -- today: the Fed minutes -- the Fed indicates they won't cut rates; the one last thing the market was "hoping" for; the market drops;
So, with all that, what's a NYC trader to do? "Sell in May and go away." Prepare for vacation; go on vacation. Come back in September.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Hoping this lasts for at least two more cycles. What a great buying opportunity. We don't get them often.

******************************
Flash

It's hard to live without "flash."

When you upload/download "flash" you also get free of charge:
  • Mac Pro Cleaner
  • Booking.com
  • NameSync
And they show up automatically in your "dock" which is most irritating.

Recommendation: remove them immediately.

Google this issue and you will find "everyone" has this problem. 

On Apple it's really, really easy to remove these three apps, although it took a few attempts to finally get rid of NameSync which apparently tracks all your passwords.

On Apple:
  • go to Finder
  • search for "applications"
  • click on the "Applications" folder. You might have to find a second "Applications" folder but it's there.
Look for:
  • MacProClearner (or whatever it's called; something like that)
  • Booking.com
  • NameSync
Drag the icons to the "Trash."

A dialogue box might pop up saying that the app can't be deleted because it's open.
  • Click on the icon on the dock, and then when it shows up in the "toolbar," "CLOSE IT."
  • Now it can be dragged to the "Trash."
For some reason, it took a couple of tries to get rid of NameSync and that's the one that's most concerning. The other two are just irritating.

Now you know why Steve Jobs wanted nothing to do with "flash" on his mobile devices.

Off The Net For Awhile -- We'll End With This

From a reader. As we think about that possible plastics plant in North Dakota, a re-look at this article from a year ago: ethane to ethylene should be a big, big deal going forward. 

************************************
Refinery Temporarily Shut Down
Global Warming Dropping Too Much Rain

From twitter today:


Natural Gas Fill Rate -- May 23, 2019

Link here. (See first comment: reader suggests comparing with other data at this link.)


From a reader's comment earlier in the week:
Injections for each week of 2019 since March 29 was greater than the injection for the same week of 2014, of 2015, of 2016, of 2017, and of 2018, now for seven weeks in a row...that might be some kind of record.
Small print:
  • most recent injection: 100 Bcf
  • stocks were 137 Bcf higher than last year
  • stocks are 274 Bcf below the five-year average