Sunday, December 9, 2018

Apparently The NDIC "TOP LINE" Rig Count Is Accurate -- December 9, 2018

A huge apology to a reader. This note was sent to me three days ago and I missed it. I get a lot of e-mail and I can miss things.

With regard to "that" question about the NDIC rig count being inaccurate: a reader wrote the NDIC on this issue and got the following response:
Thank you for reaching out.
We are having some computer’s that are not syncing as per usual so the rigs are showing up for multi well pads.
For example if a with is drilling two wells on a pad both wells are showing up instead of the rig just once. It’s not affecting the rig count at the top but we are working on getting this glitch updated. 
So, direct from the "horse's mouth," as they say.

And a huge thank you from the reader for sending me this information.

Comment: the timing of the note is incredibly coincidental. I was going to post a note of my own regarding the rig count, but then forgot. If I post now what I was thinking then no one would believe me anyway so it won't be posted. LOL.

Idle Ramblng On A Sunday Morning -- December 9, 2018

Updates

Later, 10:28 a.m. CT: see first comment and my reply. A reader asks,
Big reactors may be on the outs for economic reasons versus natural gas. How about modular reactors that can be on site with refineries, auto plants, etc. Why isn't this mentioned anymore in media. Could be available from startups like the one funded by Bill Gates.
Transatomic to Shutter Its Nuclear Reactor Plans, Open-Source Its Technology.
The startup backed by Peter Thiel won’t be able to build its advanced reactor designs—but it’s making its IP available for others to carry on the work.
By the way, when someone "open-sources" its technology, that speaks volumes about how valuable, or should we say invaluable, a technology is perceived to be by its "current owner."

Original Post 

Updates

Later, 7:36 p.m. CT: Bloomberg must be reading the blog. Several hours after posting the note below, I ran across the Bloomberg article suggesting that all of Europe is turning "right." Wow. 

Original Post
 
Two unrelated data points. First, France.

In a not-ready-for-prime-time e-mail to a reader earlier this morning, paraphrased:
  • Spain: "far right breakthrough sends shockwave through Spanish politics" -- Drudge Report link
  • Italy: new immigration laws got attention of the EU
  • Germany: Merkel soon to be out
  • Brexit: on the ropes
  • Macron: ?
One wonders if Hillary had been president would things be a whole lot different in Europe. She would certainly have had a different relationship with Europe and she certainly would have supported their liberal causes.
One wonders to what extent the "Trump effect" is having on Europe?
Second: nuclear reactors.

Presidents are change agents. They also have access to where the Deep State plans to take the US twenty to thirty years down the road.

My hunch is that Hillary made the decision to see a significant reserve of US uranium to Russia after getting the briefing from the Deep State that the US was going to phase out nuclear energy over the next twenty to thirty years. After getting the briefing she knew the US was sitting on a worthless resource. Time to sell it.

That came to mind when Don sent me this link: US to shut down Idaho nuclear waste processing plant. It wouldn't have been shut down had it not been needed, and it would not be needed if the US were phasing out nuclear reactors.

Certainly no new nuclear reactors are being contemplated for the US. The US is already shutting down nuclear reactors. From Forbes earlier this year:
Another U.S. nuclear plant is at risk of being closed prematurely and replaced by fossil fuels.
Last week, the owner of the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa, NextEra, announced it had secretly negotiated a deal with a state electric utility to close the plant early.
If all of the announced nuclear closures go forward, the total number of operating nuclear reactors in the United States will decline precipitously — from 99 to 89 — by 2025.
The amount of clean electricity lost from those 10 reactors would be 23 percent more than all of the solar electricity generated in the U.S. in 2017. 
Many, many story lines here, but 20-20 hindsight suggests to me that instead of focusing on Hillary's personal gains in the Russian uranium deal, the big story was another open book test. Hillary may have enjoyed some of the spoils of that sale, but it would not have gone through if the Deep State PowerPoint Presentation did not show that the Deep State was going to replace nuclear energy with wind and solar energy, perhaps a strategy that gained momentum after March 11, 2011.

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On Hanukkah

From Rabbi Sharon Kleinbaum in advance copy of My Jewish Year: 18 Holidays, One Wondering Jew, Abigail Pogrebin, c. 2017.
I love the anit-militarist aspect of the story of Hanukkah, despite its being about a military episode.

We are celebrating the miracle of the oil, instead.

That's remarkable-- that here is this great military event, but what we're actually remembering with the ritual of lighting the candles is that somebody had the chutzpah, the faith, the hope, to take a tiny little vial of oi and imagine that it would last.

I think that's so profound for us today. You can imagine everybody around him or her, saying "Nudnik, why are you even lighting that little oil? It's not enough give up, don't even try. what's the point?

That speaks to all of us today that feel such despair about the conditions in the world, our ability to have impact in our lives. The hanukiah, or menorah, says "start with whatever you have, use it well, and trust that there will be a future beyond that one day."

Texas High School Football -- December 9, 2018

From memory, so there may be more errors than usual.

Texas football.

At 6A (highest "level"):

Our "local" team, a historic Texas powerhouse, Southlake, played Duncanville last night. Duncanville has never beat Southlake, or if they have, it's been a long time since that happened.

Both Southlake and Duncanville are DFW metroplex teams. They both came into the game undefeated for the season. They were ranked #5 and #6. I believe Duncanville was ranked #5.

The score: Duncanville beat Southlake ... 51 to 7.

Duncanville now goes on to the semifinals to play Allen, TX. Allen is ranked #1. Allen is the defending state champion.

Last year, to win the Texas state championship, Allen defeated Midway .... 51 to 7.

One last item of note. The Heisman winner last night: Kyler Murray. From wiki:
Murray attended Allen High School in Allen, Texas.
As a senior in 2014, he was the Gatorade Football Player of the Year.
His team won three straight state championships and 43 games in a row. He missed one start during this streak and finished his career with a perfect 42–0 record as a starting quarterback.
Time to watch the movie. From wiki:
Friday Night Lights is a 2004 American sports drama film, directed by Peter Berg. The film follows the coach and players of a high school football team in the Texas city of Odessa, which supported and was obsessed with them.
The book on which it was based, Friday Night Lights: A Town, a Team, and a Dream (1990) by H. G. Bissinger, followed the story of the 1988 Permian High School Panthers football team as they made a run towards the state championship.
A television series of the same name premiered on October 3, 2006 on NBC. The film won the Best Sports Movie ESPY Award and was ranked number 37 on Entertainment Weekly's list of the Best High School Movies.
Duncanville's mascot? The Panthers.

FWIW: Atmospheric CO2 Update -- December 9, 2018

Most recent reading:


A year ago: 405.92 ppm at this link.

The precision to two decimal places --
  • is unnecessary
  • is most likely a false precision
  • but gives the number more "gravitas" (who would believe the number if it were simply rounded to 410?)

Putting The Bakken Into Perspective -- December 9, 2018

Updates

Later, 10:07 a.m. CT: Don sent me a link to an article in the January, 2018, issue of Geo News. It should download as a pdf on your desktop:
From that article:
There is currently limited geological information available regarding the petroleum geology and economic importance of the middle to lower Three Forks.
Resource assessments of the Three Forks Formation have ranged from approximately 2 to 4 billion barrels of recoverable oil, but these assessments have been limited to the upper Three Forks (Nordeng and Helms, 2010; Gaswirth et al., 2013).
This article reports the preliminary findings of a recently initiated study on the origin and distribution of oil saturations within the middle Three Forks. It also reviews the present production footprint of 2nd bench horizontal oil wells and projects their potential future distribution.
In addition, I am examining oil saturations and hydrocarbon production in the lower Three Forks (3rd and 4th benches).
The author is Timothy O. Nesheim.

As noted, this article is a "work in progress." Unless I missed it, the author did not provide estimated reserves in the middle or lower benches of the Three Forks.

Don suggests it is likely that this paper is part of the ongoing USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks.

Original Post

At one million bopd, the Bakken produces (365 million bbls x 3 years =) one billion bbls every three years. Unfettered, of course, the Bakken could produce more than 2 million bopd, or one billion bbls every year and a half.

So what?

At the sidebar at the right, there is a long list with "Other Formations." Here is the link to "Norway," for example.

And from that page, the most recent post:
December 8, 2018: from Equinor's website, this date -- Johan Sverdrup—the North Sea giant Johan Sverdrup is one of the five largest oil fields on the Norwegian continental shelf.

With expected resources of between 2.1—3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalents, it will also be one of the most important industrial projects in Norway in the next 50 years. The development and operation of this enormous field will generate revenue and provide jobs for coming generations.
My hunch is that the next USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks will be the equivalent of adding several such fields to the Williston Basin. It is unlikely the next survey will include Three Forks B2 and B3 because so few wells have been drilled into the lower Three Forks.