Thursday, January 18, 2018

Jobs: US Jobless Claims Plunge To Lowest Tally Since 1973 -- Bloomberg -- On The One-Year Anniversary Of President Trump's First Year -- January 18, 2019

This is really quite incredible to have this record announced on the anniversary of President Trump's first year in office. From Bloomberg:
U.S. filings for unemployment benefits plummeted to the lowest level in almost 45 years in a sign the job market will tighten further in 2018, Labor Department figures showed Thursday. The figures suggest the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, already the lowest since 2000, could be poised to decline further.
  • jobless claims decreased by 41k to 220k (est. 249k); lowest level since Feb. 1973, biggest drop since April 2009 
  • continuing claims rose by 76k to 1.952m in week ended Jan. 6 (data reported with one-week lag) 
  • four-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, fell to 244,500 from the prior week’s 250,750
The data is likely to be revised significantly next week: claims this week were estimated for Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maine, Puerto Rico, Virginia, and Wyoming

New York, unadjusted claims fell by 26,190 to 23,171. Wow, do the math. 26,190+23,171 = 49,361 last week. 26,190/49,361 = a decline of 53%. Wow.

California's unadjusted claims rose by 11,944 to 59,284. Again, the math: 59,284-11,994 = 47,290. 11,944 / 47,290 = a 25% increase in claims. Wow.

The Bakken Hype? Don't Believe It -- Jane Nielson -- Flashback -- January 18, 2018

Bakken oil hype, Jane Nielson, link here, June 25, 2010. She's never updated that post, as far as I know.

Reality: US February shale output expected to rise to 6.55 million bopd -- EIA.
The agency expects oil production from new wells to grow in each of seven major regions. The Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico accounts for the bulk of the production increase year-on-year, the data showed. At the same time, production growth in the Bakken formation of North Dakota is seen slower than a year earlier.
Eagle Ford oil output is expected to rise by 15,000 bpd to 1.27 million bpd, while Bakken output is set to rise by 8,500 bpd to 1.22 million bpd, the agency said in a monthly report.
US oil production around 10 million bopd; shale oil at 6.55 million bopd would mean shale oil contributes more than 60% of total US crude oil production.

We won't know the February, 2018, North Dakota crude oil output until April, 2018. So, looking back at the April, 2017, Director's Cut, oil production:
  • January, 2017: 981,380 bopd
  • February, 2017: 1,034,168 bopd (preliminary)
  • The February, 2017, data was "finalized" the following month and came in at: 1,034,248 bopd
Weather-wise, February is the toughest month to drill in North Dakota. Everybody takes off for Valentine's Day.

Electricity Costs: How About $9,000/MWh; That's A Bargain, It's Going To Hit $10,000/MWh; Later, $14,000/MWh -- The Road To Australia -- January 18, 2018

This is truly unbelievable. A reader alerted me to this with this message last night.
104 F degrees in Adelaide now, expected to be 103 F as the sun goes down in a few hours which will neutralize extensive rooftop solar in the region.
Tomorrow looks to be equally hot. 
Grid operator AEMO, has taken steps to obfuscate easy data gathering from site. 
These folks are just crazy to go down this path (renewable energy -- solar).
For those folks who want to see where California is headed with its most recent order affecting PG&E, just look at these charts.

Remember, in North Dakota, electricity costs, I suppose, are about $30/MWh, although I have not checked in a long, long time. $30/MWh vs $14,000/MWh for spot electricity.

I said I would check out "ISO" Australia in the morning. Well, here the screenshots taken just a few minutes ago.

$9,014/MWh:

$10,029/MWh:
$14,166/MWh:

I assume Apple won't be putting any server farms in Australia any time soon.

Elon Musk can't get his batteries to Australia fast enough. But, of course, the batteries are only to mitigate black-outs that might last minutes. His batteries will do nothing for the price of spot electricity in south Australia. Wow, what a mess.

The good news: Australians don't have to pay this price for electricity. They can simply turn everything off.

Even during the worst days during the cold snap in New England, spot prices seldom went above $500/MWh. Earlier this morning, spot prices in New England spiked to $450/MWh.

The Market And Energy Page, T+362 -- January 18, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Dow: opens at an all-time high. Essentially flat, but it only had to open up 0.1 point to set an all-time record. But, it's still a "R."

Enbridge: Motley Fool.

KMI: MarketStreet.

Pipeline builders: WSJ. Pipeline builders try new growth strategy: bigger pipes. Facing protests over new oil and natural-gas lines, some companies are expanding old ones.

Super-pads: from oilprice.com. I missed this one. A big "thank you" to a reader for bringing it to my attention --
Shale gas drillers super-sizing their wells. Top shale gas drillers in the Marcellus are super-sizing their wellpads.
In the past, a wellpad would be used to drill a handful of wells. But some gas drillers are building much larger wellpads, and using them to drill upwards of 30 or 40 wells.
These “superpads” can produce a lot more gas in a smaller footprint. It also means that gas drillers can drill a group of wells in one moment, then come back later and drill more wells from the same pad. EQT, the largest gas producer in the U.S., is reportedly one of the leaders of this new practice, which can see $250 million invested in a single supersized wellpad.
Amazon: narrows list of HQ2 cities to 20. The list is here. Dallas and Austin, both in Texas, are on the list. My hunch: Dallas and Austin will make the final ten. Austin or Dallas will make the final five. Austin has the "emotional" edge; Dallas has the "rational" edge. Williston, ND, did not make the list, but I assume that was only because Williston did not apply, nor does Williston have the light rail infrastructure that Jeff Bezos was looking for.

Apple: will build a second campus. Says it won't build in California or Texas because Apple already has a huge footprint in those two states. My hunch: North Carolina.

EVs: LAPD loves 'em. Using BMW EVs to make lunch runs and nail salon runs. Won't use them for patrolling -- officers concerned about limited range. Once an interstate chase begins, it's easy to go more than 100 miles.  By using the BMW EVs for lunch runs and nail salon runs, it saves wear and tear on the muscle cars.

Best decision I never made: not investing in long-term nursing care. Those policies have worked for many, but years and years ago after being "pressured" to buy such "insurance policies," after reading the small print, it was clear that it was more likely things would not work out.

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My Betting On Amazon HQ2

Among the "Final 3" I have lumped Dallas and Austin together. In my mind there is little difference. In the "emotional" arena, Austin beats Dallas, but in the "real world," Dallas beats Austin. But at the end of the day, I think one of the two will be in the final three.

Final 20
Top Ten
Final Five
Final Three
Winner
Atlanta
Atlanta



Austin, TX
Austin, TX
Austin, TX
Texas

Boston
Boston



Chicago
Chicago



Columbus, OH




Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Texas

Denver
Denver



Indianapolis




Los Angeles




Miami




Montgomery County, MD




Nashville, TN
Nashville, TN



Newark, NJ




NYC




Northern Virginia
Northern Virginia
Northern Virginia
Northern Virginia

Philadelphia




Pittsburgh




Raleigh, NC
Raleigh, NC
Raleigh, NC
Raleigh, NC
Raleigh, NC
Toronto
Toronto
Toronto


Washington, DC




Thursday, January 18, 2018; First Time Unemployments Claims Drop 4X Forecast

Let's start out with this for the day, from The Washington Post, putting Apple, Inc, in perspective -- LOL --


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Jobs: link here -- 45-year low.
  • prior: 261K
  • forecast: 250K
  • actual: 220K
  • 4-week moving average: 244,500
  • new claims: down an incredible 41,000; the forecast was for a decline of 11,000
I can hardly wait for the mainstream media spin later today, if they even dare talk about it on the anniversary of Trump's first year.

Dow futures: slightly to negative to slightly positive overnight; after jobs report, Dow futures up 21 points.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


1/18/201801/18/201701/18/201601/18/201501/18/2014
Active Rigs583849157187

RBN Energy: the rejuvenation of natural gas processing economics, part 3.