This Is So Incredibly British -- LOL -- Maxing Out The Range Of An EV Polestar -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48854EVS.

"Bog standard" is a British English slang term meaning ordinary, basic, or with no special features. It's used to describe something that is average, common, or unexceptional. The term is generally considered to be slightly disparaging, implying a lack of quality or innovation. 

Link here.

Seriously, read this article very, very closely. This is incredibly absurd. Reminds me of that television commercial extolling an EV 18-wheeler -- going downhill -- LOL. The Brits set the record doing it their way and Guinness accepted it. LOL.

A bog-standard Polestar 3 crossover just set a new world record for the longest journey travelled by an electric SUV on a single charge.

The EV, fitted with the Long Range battery and a single rear motor, went a whopping 581.3 miles before needing to be recharged. That’s a lot more than the Polestar 3’s official EPA range rating of 350 miles. LOL.

The record-setting trip was done on public roads in the United Kingdom, taking 22 hours and 57 minutes to complete. 350 miles / 23 hours / three blokes.

That’s a very long time, which is why the team had three drivers who took turns driving the electric crossover. Exactly how I plan my trips when driving cross-country across the US.

It’s rather impressive, but doing some quick maths reveals that the average speed during the record run was 25.3 mph.

The team left at 2 a.m. to take advantage of clear roads in the morning, sticking to the flat roads of the Norfolk area. At the end of the very long trip, the car had an average energy efficiency of 5.1 miles/kilowatt-hour (19.5 kWh/100 miles).

The record was made official by Guinness World Records’ own judge, Paulina Sapinska, while UK-based fleet management company Webfleet was responsible for gathering independently verified video footage, odometer readings, GPS readings and battery state of charge data. The car was not modified in any way and used standard 20-inch wheels fitted with standard Michelin Sport 4 EV tires.

The Polestar 3 is assembled in Ridgeville, South Carolina, as well as in Chengdu, China. In Long Range Single Motor guise, the BMW iX rival is powered by a rear-mounted electric motor that makes 299 horsepower and 361 pound-feet of torque. The battery, supplied by China’s CATL, has a usable energy content of 107 kWh and can be fast-charged at up to 250 kW, making for a 10% to 80% top-up in 30 minutes.

At the end of the day, this was simply a publicity stunt.  

Ford, CATL, LFP Batteries -- Boggles The Mind On So Many Levels -- Must Drive Trump Nuts -- May 31, 2025

Locator: 48652BATTERIES.

Bill Ford's message to the US Congress.

Link here.

From the linked article: 

For low-cost, mass-market electric vehicles, lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries are a clear favorite. They skip pricey materials like nickel and cobalt, offer reasonable energy density, better thermal stability and last far longer.

U.S. automakers want to build them here, but they can’t do it without federal subsidies and China’s help. Now, as those subsidies are under the woodchipper, Ford’s joint battery plant with Chinese battery maker CATL in Michigan is on shaky ground. That could spell trouble for its affordable EV plans.

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Michelle Obama and Women's Reproductive Health

Michelle was wrong on so many levels. 

Link here https://www.foxnews.com/politics/michelle-obama-facing-backlash-over-claim-about-womens-reproductive-health. 

You will have to "copy, paste and go."

I wonder if this link works. It does.

I wonder why it's called the "miracle of life." 

Is this what she feels about her own motherhood, that it really did not mean that much to her. But "reproductive health," for example research in ovarian cancer is a more important meaningful and/or gender equality is more important than the miracle of life?

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The Book Page

In spite of the really bad review of this book by another author, this book is really, really good. 

Pioneer Girl, Laura Ingalls Wilder, The Annotated Autobiography, Pamela Smith Hill, Editor, c. 2014.

I bought it o a whim -- $5.00 -- mint condition -- a "library withdrawal book" -- and am more than pleasantly surprised.

It is such an incredible book on so many levels.

EVs -- Headlines, Commentary -- May 31, 2025

Locator: 48650EVS.

Are you kidding me; buying a high-end luxury vehicle to drive between home and Target once or twice a week? Link here.

Real EVs in deep, deep trouble. Americans, Europeans prefer fake EVs.

Even the rich no longer want EVs. This may have finally gotten the attention of manufacturers. 

Volkswagen: European buyers want buttons -- tactile controls -- not screens. I agree wholeheartedly. I can't stand our touchscreen. Requires me to take my eyes off the road -- and at 80 mph that's not a good thing.

Waymo vs Tesla FSD: Waymo is wayahead.

Bill Ford has a warming for Congress on EV batteries: Ford wants to make affordable EVs and lithium-iron-phosphate batteries in the US but its plans are now "in peril."

Ford: actually, Ford has bigger problems than batteries. Look at the opening statement from Bill Ford regarding these LiFePh (LFP) (pronounced "life-y" or 'life-P") batteries:

• these life-y batteries:
• skip pricey and hard-to-find materials like nickel and cobalt;
• they offer reasonable energy density;
• better stability; and,
• last far longer.

And then this:

U.S. automakers want to build them here, but they can’t do it without federal subsidies and China’s help. Now, as those subsidies are under the woodchipper, Ford’s joint battery plant with Chinese battery maker CATL in Michigan is on shaky ground. That could spell trouble for its affordable EV plans.

Are you kidding me! Bill Ford says the raw materials are cheap and readily available but yet US automobile manufacturers can't build these batteries without federal subsidies and without China's help.

Hellooooo! Is anyone paying attention? 

Link here.

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Two Headlines From The Same Day -- May 14, 2025

The Mercedes-Benz CLA EV Can't Use Most Fast Chargers In The US (Updated)

• it's official: the CLA's 800V system doesn't work with 400V chargers. For now, at least.
• Julian Dnistran
• link here.
• link here, also.
  

The Mercedes CLA EV Will Work With Tesla Superchargers After All

• Mercedes-Benz backtracked on its original idea of restricting the CLA to 800V DC fast chargers
• Julian Dnistran
• link here.

But there's so much more to this story. Wow. And it will explain why Americans are not buying EVs. 

Headlines II -- December 3, 2023

Locator: 46234HEADLINES.

ENB line 5: won't "happen" in my investing lifetime but gives regulators and lawyers plenty to talk  about. Link here.

US Supreme Court: to take tax case. For taxpayers, it's a no-lose situation. In worse case, taxpayers break even; in best case, SCOTUS rules IRS illegal; may re-define definition of income. LOL. Will the ObamaCare ruling be back in play?

Too little, too late: over the weekend, after it was announced that Alaska Airlines would be booted from the S&P, Alaska Airlines announced it would buy Hawaiian airlines. To remain HQ'd in Seattle. Alaska CEO will remain CEO. $2 billion. 

BRK: most interesting factoid coming out after the death of Charlie Munger, considered the man behind the throne: not discussed by anyone. 

Death of Charlie Munger, man behind the throne, and BRK shares remained absolutely unchanged. Speaks volumes. Would the same occur if Bob Iger had stepped down? If Elon Musk had stepped down? If Tim Cook had stepped down? Jensen Huang, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg?

Apple: to hit the $3-trillion-market-cap threshold again, shares only need to move 1 percent from Friday's after-hours trading price.

Apple: most under-reported story? Apple throws in the towel on developing its own 5G modem. 5-day move for QCOM -- inconsequential. 

Apple: Arm is now the 600-lb gorilla. ARM? The story is fascinating ... I will have to come back to this -- but owe the move to ARM to some high school kids and their science project years ago.

College football: FCS championship -- of the eight teams still in contention -- 

South Dakota State, South Dakota, North Dakota State; and Montana. A fifth from the same geographic region: Idaho. The others Greenville, SC (Furman, midway between Charlotte and Atlanta); Albany; and Villanova, northwest of Philadelphia.

Inflation or fraud: price of eggs. Now we know. 

The egg suppliers include the family company of its former Chair John Rust, who’s running for the U.S. Senate in Indiana.

In a written statement on the verdict, Rust said the jury’s decision “will be appealed.” The jury found that the egg suppliers exported eggs abroad to reduce the overall supply in the domestic market, as well as limited the number of chickens through means including cage space, early slaughter and flock reduction.

John Rust, Republican running for US Senate. Not a surprise. What is a surprise: his politics.

OXY: in talks to buy Permian producer CrownRock. Joins CVX-Hess and XOM-PXD. OXY-CrownRock not announced over the weekend. Is BRK's C-suite pre-occupied?

Nuclear: for those interested in nuclear -- and I'm not -- Idaho National Laboratory will be in the news this week, though no one will pay attention.

****************************
US Public Pensions

US public pensions: 1,000 largest. Change (I assume y/y, 2022 / 2021), rounded to nearest full integer. Again, this is change in assets under management; it is not the return on investments, if that makes sense. -- I assume the annual prospectuses are readily available:

• By size, assets under management:

• Federal Thrift: 19%
• California Public Employees: 17%
• California State Teachers: 21%
• NY State Common: 18%
• NYC Retirement: 18%
• Florida State Board: 19%
• Texas Teachers: 21%
• Washington State Board: 25%
• Wisconsin Investment Board: 19%
• Boeing: 10%
• NY State Teachers: 18%
• North Carolina: 14%
• California University: 22%
• Ohio Public Employees: 17%
• ATT: -6%
• IBM: 6%
• Virginia Retirement: 22%
• Raytheon Technologies: 9%
• Michigan Retirement: 25%
• New Jersey: 26%
• Minnesota State Board: 20%
• Kaiser: 22%
• Others of interest:
• JP Morgan Chase: 30%
• Microsoft: 51%
• Morgan Stanley: 37%
• Arizona Public Safety: 44%
• Amazon.com: 64%
• Coca-Cola: 42%
• NYU: 49%
• Longshoremen ILWU-PMA: 42%
• New Hampshire Retirement: 67%
• Harvard University: -8%
• Vanguard Group: 87%
• Alaska Air: 50%
• Charles Schwab: 48%
• Facebook: 72%
• I will arbitrarily stop here.

Ford: EV plans -- The WSJ -- a story --- Marshall, Michigan --

The project seemed like a slam dunk when it was announced earlier this year: a $3.5 billion Ford Motor facility slated to create 2,500 jobs by the time production was to begin in 2026.

It was a chance to show that a state-led version of the Biden administration’s strategy of using government subsidies and incentives could put an auto-related plant in a northern state that has seen its automaking dominance diminish.

But the president’s plan to jump-start the U.S. economy by supporting domestic production of green technologies has hit roadblocks: Electric-vehicle adoption isn’t going as fast as some had forecast, the industry has recalibrated, and there has been local opposition to fast-tracking such projects.

The political payoff has been slow in coming because results are likely to take years.

After the fanfare of the February announcement of the plant, Ford quietly signaled in September that it would pause the project. When work resumed on the BlueOval battery plant in November, it was for a scaled-down version, a reflection of what is happening in the roller-coaster EV market. In an unsettled economic and political landscape, the prospect of needed jobs didn’t guarantee community acceptance.

The plant would use licensed technology from the Chinese battery manufacturer CATL to make EV batteries under Ford’s name in Marshall. The city has approved the initial site plan, and officials said that there are no remaining barriers to the plant. Proponents said it would bring well-paying jobs and likely investment from ancillary companies and suppliers, not to mention the restaurants, housing and entertainment that would likely pop up.

Fake EVs: the hybrid fad will gradually fade away, too.

Cybertruck: can you imagine what it will cost to repair even minor damage from a fender-bender?

EVs:

• for traders: awesome opportunities:
• for investors with 30-year horizon: plenty of time to pull the trigger

California solar: plummets -- link here. Plummets? An understatement. Unless a mandated requirement for all house sales (existing and new), solar in California is dead. Recession? Nope, a depression.

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11 

Darlene Love.

Huge Strategic Shift -- November 22, 2023

Locator: 46137EVS.  

Ford re-thinks its strategic plan: link here. The UAW is now running GM, Ford, and Stellantis.

From the linked article:

Ford announced it is cutting production capacity on its upcoming electric vehicle battery plant, amid cooling customer demand for purchasing EVs and rising labor costs.

The automaker says it will reduce its original $3.5 billion planned investments to build the Michigan plant to somewhere around $2 billion and is now only expecting to hire 1,700 workers instead of 2,500.

Ford had originally announced the ambitious Michigan battery plant in February in partnership with China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), a company that makes LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries. The plant will now only produce about 20 gigawatt-hours of batteries per year, which is about a 43 percent cut.

In order for EVs to qualify for up to $7,500 in federal tax credits, automakers must source at least 40 percent of their battery materials from North America or US trading partners by 2024. Ford’s partnership with CATL has also made it a target of anti-China GOP politicians.

The automaker still plans to open the new facility on target in 2026 despite recent production halts during the UAW labor union strike last month. The company also recently put off plans to build its Kentucky battery plant.

Let's look at those "rising labor costs": 

Oh, that's right. UAW-Ford settled for a 30% jump in hourly wages, or something in that range. And, then, of course, the benefits package.

************************
The Recipe Page

Looking forward to Thanksgiving dessert tomorrow.

Only in Texas and Tennessee.

CATL, EVs, And All That Jazz -- October 2, 2023

 Locator: 45622EVS.

Update -- Much More To The Story

Link to Forbes.

The chairs of the three most powerful House committees have threatened to subpoena Ford if it does not provide documents detailing a deal with China’s CATL battery maker. Ford cannot ignore this request, and it might even force them to back out of the deal. It’s already pressed pause on a new $3.5 billion battery plant in Michigan.

It’s not clear what Ford will do after this, but the experience illustrates how turbulent the electric vehicle (EV) transition might be.

In 2021, President Biden announced an executive order that directs government policies to ensure 50% of all new passenger vehicle sales are electric by 2030. This year, the administration proposed that the figure increase to two-thirds by 2032. These are ambitious targets—the electric vehicle (EV) share of the new vehicle market was just 7% for the first half of this year. Getting from 7% to 67% by 2032 in a commercially viable way is going to take a massive reallocation of people, capital, and resources.

Such a monumental transition would be challenging even in the best of times. Today’s EVs are powered by lithium-ion batteries. Coupling and growing the two industries together comes with many challenges, including investing in new capital equipment, forming new business ventures, licensing the know-how, and ensuring they have the right people in place.

Mining and processing the raw materials for these batteries so far has largely been done outside of the United States. Ford found a way to domestically manufacture EVs by licensing battery cell technology from China’s CATL, a world leader in lithium iron phosphate battery technology. The arrangement was announced in February 2023 and allowed for Ford’s wholly owned subsidiary in Michigan to manufacture the battery cells using CATL’s LFP battery cell knowledge and services. In other words, Ford will control a 100% ownership stake in the plant while licensing the know-how.

Now, congressional concerns over CATL’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party have led to the subpoena, and Ford has halted work at the Michigan battery factory. It’s unclear if they will resume.

Original Post -- Some Weeks Ago

Ford halts construction of $3.5 billion EV battery plant in Michigan:

• why Barron's says this is a big, big deal; link here; link here, also;
• "Michigan" can't be happy
• how many union jobs lost or "put on hold"?
• Ford re-thinking this EV thing?
• UAW - Ford, GM, Stellantis -- circular firing squad
• UAW planned / plans for months (plural)-long strike and will gradually expand

Fossil Fuels And Ford Battery Plant -- A Meandering Post -- September 26, 2023

Locator: 45584B.  

Fossil fuel: quick look at headlines overnight suggests fossil fuels are back; renewable energy, global warming issues facing headwinds. Apparently some folks don’t like the idea of $7-gasoline. Overnight headlines;

• OPEC+ cuts offset by booming US oil production
• oil demand destruction in India won't happen at $100-oil
• court upholds order to expand oil and gas lease sale in Gulf of Mexico, the expansion Biden trieed to stop -- illegally -- he learned well from Obama, who actually went to law school
• Groningen finally closing for good -- well, except for emergencies for one more winter; link here.
  
• Goldman Sachs ignores activists' calls to "abandon" oil and gas investments
• Trans Mountain oil pipeline back on track; regulator, in what seems record time, approve the requested route change 
• short sells scramble as energy stocks surge (whoo-hoo)
• energy fund manager predicts major upside for oil equities
• OPEC+ cuts offset by booming US oil production: US production to hit 13 million bopd by the end of this month, matching the record output from November, 2019. Link here.
  

Ford halts construction of $3.5 billion EV battery plant in Michigan:

• why Barron's says this is a big, big deal; link here; link here, also;
• "Michigan" can't be happy
• how many union jobs lost or "put on hold"?
• Ford re-thinking this EV thing?
• UAW - Ford, GM, Stellantis -- circular firing squad
• UAW planned / plans for months (plural)-long strike and will gradually expand

Look at that Barron's article: every big name in EV battery will be affected -- link here, again:

• Ford licensed the technology from Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (CATL -- we've discussed CATL before);
• the plant is slated to use lithium-iron-phosphate battery technology (CATL -- world's largest battery maker)
• also called LFP batteries -- iron is "Fe"
• LFP batteries less expensive than other chemistries -- and, as they say, you get what you pay for
• now folks are suggesting that maybe Ford doesn't need as many batteries as it thought
• EV sales have hit a wall
• the US EV penetration is about 7% (which I think is baloney)
• EV sales are up almost 50% in one year BUT Ford sales are up only 6% through August -- and isn't Ford second only to Tesla in the US
• Barron's with the understatement of the day: "Ford ha run into 'some' battery and manufacturing problems -- previously reported
• maybe investors will like this pause: it will save or slow billions in capital spending
  
• Ford investors actually aren't too upset -- ticker F is up 2% over the past five days
• meanwhile Tesla keeps moving along
• having said all that -- one of the poorest Barron's articles I've read in a long time; meanders all over the territory; the writer certainly didn't seem like he / she knew where the story was leading
• I think this is the big question: delaying the battery factory -- a minor speed bump or a decades-long detour and eventual re-route? I don't think anyone knows and the Ford board is probably greatly divided on this
  

Meandering -- just like this blog. LOL.

Oh, one more thing:

Ford Is Reorganising Its E-Mobility Approach In China -- Electriv.Com -- August 3, 2023

Locator: 45309EVS. 

Earlier: "Most interesting story we might see today: link here. Stand-alone later." Archived.

Here's the story. Read every line of this story very, very closely. No sugar-coating from what I can see. 

This is in the world's biggest EV market and where EVs have been sold for quite some time now.

Ford has adjusted its electric car strategy for the Chinese market. The core of the reorganisation is that the company Ford Electric Mach Technologies (FMeT) for the development of electric vehicles will no longer operate independently in the future.

The subsidiary FMeT was founded in China less than a year ago and was not only responsible for the development of new electric cars, but also for the distribution of the currently only e-model – the Chinese version of the Ford Mustang Mach-E. In the meantime, the independence of Ford Electric Mach Technologies is already history again: 

As first reported by the portal Yicai Global and later confirmed by Ford, FMeT was integrated into Changan Ford, Ford’s general China joint venture with Changan Automobile, on 1 August 2023.

This means that Changan Ford will take over sales of the Mustang Mach-E electric model with immediate effect, with nearly 300 dealers in 70 Chinese cities. The sales network for the electric car is thus almost tripled. 

According to insiders, the reason for the change in strategy is the weak sales of the electric car. The sales figures of the Mustang Mach-E in China are so bad that it is difficult for the separate company to accept losses in the long run. An article from China even reported that only 60 units were sold from January to April. Officially, the integration into Changan Ford is due to “Ford’s strategic transformation and business realignment in China”.

Last October and this spring, Ford reduced the prices of the Mustang Mach-E in China in two stages by a total of 68,000 yuan (about 8,700 euros). In the meantime, the E-SUV was available at prices starting at 209,900 yuan, which is equivalent to about 28,600 euros. However, the discount campaign apparently did not boost sales sufficiently. 

According to Yicai Global, 33 Mustang Mach-Es were sold in China in April (i.e. during the price reduction, which lasted until 30 April). This means that more than half of the modest total sales from January to April can be attributed to the discount campaign.

Together with the realignment, a step that has so far been rather unusual in the car industry was also announced: 

Changan Ford will replace and upgrade the processor for the digital cockpit free of charge in all Mustang Mach-Es delivered in China so far. Until now, the older Qualcomm Snapdragon 820A chip was installed. This will be replaced with the Snapdragon 8155, which is now standard in many mainstream models in China.

The Mustang Mach-E for China has been built by Changan Ford at its Chongqing plant since October 2021. In China, Ford relies on battery cells from CATL. 

The Mustang Mach-E for North America and Europe is built in Mexico and uses battery cells from LG Energy Solution’s Wroclaw plant in Poland.

Globally, Ford’s electric vehicle business also continues to post large losses. Therefore, the target of building 600,000 electric cars globally has been pushed back by one year from the end of 2023.

Unmitigated disaster.

The next question: will Ford do the same for its North American operations?  In fact, they already have, but Ford reports EV sales and earnings separately from the parent company, though Ford's quarterly earnings include both, if that makes sense (the way I wrote it).

EVs-NFM -- Ford -- CATL -- March 20, 2023

Updates

March 21, 2023: link here. Could F-150 Raptors at $109, 000 starting price be part of the problem? The F-150 is the number one selling vehicle in the US.

Later, 5:34 p.m. CT: link here.

Original Post 

So many story lines at this WSJ article, link here.

Much more at the link.

Also, search CATL at the blog.

EVs: Market Update -- March 14, 2023

Do me a favor: click on CATL to see how the blog has covered this battery manufacturer.

We'll get back to that. But first the EV market today.

The Dow was up 336 points today; the NASDAQ up 239 points.

EVs today:

• Lordstown (RIDE): up 1.5%.
• Nikola (NKLA): down 6.2%.
  
• ARVL: down another whopping 8%. It was down 14% yesterday.
  
• LCID: down 3.8%.
  
• RIVN: down 3.8%.
• FSR: down 2.7%.
  
• F: down 0.8%.

 Okay, back to CATL. Ford and CATL, The WSJ, March 20, 2023.

Are you "for it" or "against it"? 

See this link.

WTI Plunges; DE Beats -- February 17, 2023

WAG: listening to PARA earnings call yesterday, one analyst said -- "buy Netflix."

CVX: link here.

• announces upwards of 100,000 bopd from Venezuela

Putin's gift to XOM: link here.

• huge profits could drive XOM to make huge acquisition

If Hart Energy is reporting it, it's old news, but for the record: link here:

• BP acquires TA for $1.3 billlion
• BP acquisition will add 280 travel centers across the US
• think footprint locations for EV charging;

Ford / CATL: 

Projection: link here.

Mercedes-Benz: link here.

TSM: cut dividend, to 35.97 cents. 

• one site says the cut was to 35.97 cents;
• this site says new dividend: 43.94 cents, record 3/17/23; payment, 4/13/23
• previous quarter: 45.1278 cents;
• a year ago: 47.5613 cents;

Enbridge: misses, link here.

• EPS: 46 cents vs 56 cents; last year, 54 cents;
• revenue: $9.888 million; down from $9,893 million one year ago
• the weak quarterly results were primarily driven by lower contributions from the Renewable Power Generation Segment
• this will not sit well with energy investors
  
• is ENB losing its focus?

DE: link here.

• IBD
• earnings more than double
• guides high
• EPS: jumped 124%; $6.55 vs $5.57 estimate
• revenue: surged to $12.652 billion vs $12.325 billion
• guided net income of $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion
• well above consensus estimates of $8.31 billion
• DE closed down $7 yesterday; pre-market today, up $10
• a huge thank-you to a reader getting me into DE over a year ago; it's now a regular part of my "new-money" allocation (40-30-20-5-5) -- for the archives.
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $75.80,

Natural gas: $2.348.

Sunday, February 19, 2023: 54 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 125 for the year
39092, conf, Kraken, Lyman 20-17-8 3H,
37420, conf, Petro-Hunt, Powell 159-93-31C-30-2H,

Saturday, February 18, 2023: 52 for the month; 123 for the quarter, 123 for the year
38884, conf, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17A,
38429, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24H,
38414, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24-3MBH,
38038, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 4TFH,
38037, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 2TF2H,
38035, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 3MBH,
38034, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 3TFH,
38033, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 2MBH,
37421, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-93-6B-7-1HS,

Friday, February 17, 2023: 43, for the month; 114 for the quarter, 114 for the year
39005, conf, CLR, Rhonda 3-28H,
38426, conf, Hess, HA-Dahl-152-95-0706H-9,

RBN Energy: when it comes to forecasting the IRA's full impact, the devil's in the details, part 2. Archived.

It’s not the most accurately named piece of legislation, but that doesn’t mean the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) might not have an outsized impact on everything from electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen production to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon-capture projects. There’s plenty of potential for things to happen in the long run, but before then, a lot needs to get done — including the rules and regulations that will guide the IRA’s implementation. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why the IRA remains a work in progress, the critical role that rulemaking will play, and potential impediments to the law’s long-term success.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- August 3, 2022

EVs: upside-down logic of EV SUVS. Link to The WSJ. 

F: big numbers -- July's numbers --

• US auto sales up almost 40% year/year
• EVs up 170%, again year/year
• 11% market share:
• truck sales: up 21%

SBUX: record revenues. Extraordinary.

• no evidence of customers spending less; "trading down";

INTC: it only gets worse. AMD agrees with INTC -- the PC market is falling apart.

• INTC CEO: time for a bit of austerity (euphemism for layoffs)
• INTC: one word -- Nokia

AMD: guidance weak;

• 2Q22: revenue jumped 70% to $6.55 billion, barely beating estimate of $6.53;
• adjusted EPS: $1.05, again, barely beating estimate by two ceents;

Robinhood: lays off 25% of its workforce

AAPL: old news, previously reported -- most recent quarter -- record revenue of $83 billion;

CATL: posted yesterday, but now being widely reported;  

The train has left the station: link here.

Five momentum stocks: includes PSX, Valero Energy.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Oops! CATL -- August 2, 2022

Quick! What is CATL?

Link here.

Oops. Supplies Ford and Tesla. Today. 

Just getting started, June 26, 2022.

Dominates the EV battery industry, June 7, 2022.

The iCar, March 3, 2022.

Substitute safety for range, May 24, 2022.

First mention, December 25, 2016.

Just Getting Started -- June 26, 2022

CATL: link here. 

• battery range: 621 miles
• fast charge: 80% (500 miles) in ten minutes
• mass production, 2023
• price: not provided

Energy: overnight twitter feed suggests Europe is in real deep doo-doo.

• Germany back to coal.
• Groningen is back in play.
• G-7 to walk back all climate initiatives
• Greta in shock

California: $1,050 stimulus check to offset rising gas prices and inflation; 

• LOL: demand construction and more inflation
• but it will buy votes in November

Cryptocurrency: 

• watch for more bankruptcy stories;
• next: the Celsius Network;

Best NYT story this week? Link here -- 

• unfortunately it's now behind a paywall, but it will probably be re-posted elsewhere overtime -- a must read, but the headline pretty much says it all --
• June 24, 2022: the day Chief Justice Roberts lost his court

Twitter:

• thirty-six hours ago, twitter was pushing SCOTUS stories that were not part of my twitter feed; very, very irritating; this morning, they are all gone -- all energy tweets -- back to my own feed, at least temporarily;

PBR: link here. 

Born to die:

This Is What Makes Us Girls, Lana Del Rey
Teach a heron to fish: has now become a think. Link here. But similar videos all over YouTube.

Slawson With Three New Permits; Twenty-One Permits Renewed By Various Operators -- June 7, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Tine to clear out the in-box: very few links, just quick notes --

• Novavax: Covid vaccine; aimed at vaccine skeptics. overwhelmingly back by FDA panel; huge story; link here.
• panel of outside experts: 21 - 0 in favor; one abstention;
• for 18 years of age and older; looks like this might be my booster if meets criteria
• four vaccines now available
• huge thanks to Trump's Operation Warp Speed; Dems said it would never work; 
• Dems now overwhelmingly in favor of the vaccines; Trump's supporters, not so much
  
• timeline for final approval not provided
  

• Pfizer: $120 million to expand / upgrade an existing Michigan factory to "drastically" increase production and supply of its oral Covid-19 treatment.

• Abbott: re-starts baby formula plant; looks to have new product on shelves by June 20, 2022.

• Target: lowers its operating margin outlook to around 2% from its prior estimate of 5.3%.

• Russia: oil exports earnings set to decline on heavily discounted Urals. Link to Charles Kennedy.

• Apple: clobbered Affirm. Previously posted. Affirm: no moat; no deep pockets; no cult loyalty.

• Texas grid: set to hit all-time record; ERCOT says it can handle the demand. Power demand in Texas broke the June record on Monday, June 6, 2022 (yesterday) and looks set to keep climbing. More on this later.

• Rubbish: this is pretty cool. I said the same thing a daily earlier: these articles on "peak oil demand" are rubbish. Link here.

• GS:

Goldman boosts 3Q22 Brent ol forecast to $140 from $125. That would push WTI to $135. It's been my impression GS has been "behind" on its forecasts for quite some time now.

• Twain's Mustache: 
  

Over the last 20 years world governments have spent north of $5 trillion on "green" energy. That has taken fossil fuels share of primary energy from 86% to 84% and world oil consumption increased from 77 million barrels per day to 100 million barrels per day. Do you get it?

• Flying: it is now generally accepted that it is more cost effective to drive than to fly.

CATL: the Chinese company that dominates the EV battery industry.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG: bolt-on acquisition.

Willston Energy Chaser: link here.

Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative: look at this -- this helps explain why these stories are important.

Rates won’t be going up for Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative customers as a result of the back-to-back blizzards in April. You can thank the new cryptocurrency plant located in northwestern North Dakota for that, according to reports heard at MWEC’s annual meeting Thursday night.

North Dakota's Miss America 2018: graduates from Harvard. 

WTI: just short of $120.

Active rigs in North Dakota: 41 or thereabouts.

Slawson is getting active again. A reader noted that Slawson has two rigs in the North Dakota Bakken now.

Three new permits, #39002 - #39004, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Slawson has permits for two Lunker Federal wells and one Cannonball Federal well in NWNE / NENE 33-152-91; 
• to be sited 250 FNL and between 1150 FEL and 1350 FEL

Twenty-one permits renewed:

• CLR (11): six Sodbuster permits in Williams County; four Durham permits in McKenzie County; and one Cuskelly FIU permit in Dunn County;
• Whting (6): an Armas permit; a Jeffrey permit and a Gayne permit, all in Mountrail County; a Kaldahl permit, a G Bergstrom permit, and a P Earl Rennerfeldt permit, all in Williams County;
• Bowline (2): two Gibbins permits in Willams County;
• BR: a Sequoiafill permit in McKenzie County;
• Liberty Resources: a Sundhagen C permit in Williams County

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The Book Page

My goal is to read one new book each week. 

My third week, my third book.

The fourth book has been ordered from Amazon and will arrive tomorrow. It's about the cardiovascular system as described by the ancient Greeks, c. 2022.

The Energy Transition Is Dead -- EVs Not For Me -- For Investors, Margins Simply Not There

Locator: 10055DEAD.

" The Energy Transition Is Dead" will be tracked here. First post, March, 2022.

The corollary (?) or at least being reported at the same time, "Globalization Is Dead," will also be tracked here (at least for now). 

At some point in the future, I will post an "original" narrative, but for now, to save time, just the links and some minor points.

Because some politicians are trying to re-write history, we're losing sight of a very, very important data point.

Biden, et al, are trying to tell us that the inflation we are seeing is due to Russia invading Ukraine; in fact that inflation began well before the war; but it's a meme that is easily sold to the vast majority of Americans, educated or not, Republican or Democrat, does not matter.

The most important data point that all of us seem to be forgetting is that the EU energy crisis began well before the Russian-Ukraine invasion. But it's obvious that folks will forget that and put all the blame for the EU energy crisis on the Russian invasion. 

This EU energy crisis was the wake-up call that the energy transition was dead. I missed it. Many others missed it. But now, with the sanctions on Russia, we see that the energy transition is dead. The one article that cemented it for me? The EU won't ban buying coal from Russia, in effect, continuing to financially support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

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The Energy Transition Is Dead

Link here. "The energy transition is dead. We just haven't realized it yet." -- Peter Zeihan

Not enough land:

• The link has long been lost / broken, but XOM provided a very, very excellent analysis about ten years ago when I first started blogging, saying the very same thing: link here. 
  

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EVs

October 2, 2023: Ford's CATL debacle. Link here.

September 8, 2023: energy transition is dead. Update here.

February 24, 2023: Sono Motors calls it quits.

November 15, 2022: group-think.

May 20, 2022: EU to use coal a lot longer than expected now that they're cutting off Russian natural gas.

May 20, 2022: if recession lasts eighteen to twenty-four months, some EV manufacturers may not be around in 2024. Link here. 

May 5, 2022: the Biden administration admits that energy transition is going to take a lot longer than envisioned. Maybe "energy transition" is already dead. Link here.

April 27, 2022: moving on from oil, Peter Zeihan. 

April 16, 2022: Jeep will fund EVs yet to be produced with profits from large SUVs.

March 29, 2022: US EPA -- greater oil production is compatible with energy transition [if it means I'm more likely to keep my job after the mid-term elections.]

March 27, 2022: New Yorkers experience sticker shock. 

March 26, 2022: how bad is the "rare earth metals" shortage? Bezos and Gates are "buying" Greenland to mine critical materials used in electric vehicles. When Trump suggested this, he was laughed off the stage.

March 26, 2022: Coal: we can't live without it. The EU will support Russia's invasion by continuing to purchase coal from Russia.

March 25, 2022: GM to halt pickup truck production in Indiana due to chip shortage.

March 25, 2022: from my favorite contributor over at oilprice.com: lithium price surge jeopardizes energy transition efforts.

March 22, 2022: if Europe has focused on nuclear and fossil fuel, they wouldn't be in the box they are in now.

Here We Go -- The iCar -- March 3, 2022

Link to Macrumors. 

I think Apple is going to do what Ford announced the week. Apple will set up to internal teams:

• one team that makes money; and,
• one team that spends money.

From the linked article:

Apple suppliers are positioning to manufacture and assemble the company's long-rumored electric vehicle (EV), according to a Digitimes report.

The report claims that Foxconn, the colossal manufacturer behind most iPhone models, and Luxshare Precision, the assembler behind Apple devices such as AirPods, are angling to produce Apple's car.

Foxconn has moved into EV manufacturing and last year unveiled a chassis and a software platform to help carmakers bring models to market faster. Meanwhile, Luxshare is collaborating with Chinese automaker Chery to build EVs.

According to industry sources speaking to DigiTimes, while Apple is unlikely to work with Foxconn and Luxshare immediately, the suppliers are positioned to play a key role in Apple's future vehicle plans.

South Korea's Hyundai and Canada's Magna International are said to be best placed to partner with Apple initially and can provide better manufacturing expertise and infrastructure than Foxconn or Luxshare Precision.

Both Hyundai and Magna have been at the center of plausible Apple car rumors, and Hyundai has even publicly confirmed its discussions with Apple.

Instead, Foxconn could gradually build up its presence in Apple's vehicle supply chain over time by leveraging its existing relationship with the company, its newly-developed EV platform, electronic component manufacturing capabilities, and experience from collaborations with automakers like Stellantis and Fisker.

Apple is expected to need to manufacture cars for the China market almost entirely in China. For example, Apple cars for the United States market are likely to have batteries supplied by South Korea's LG, SK On, or Samsung, while Apple cars for the China market are likely to be supplied by China's CATL and BYD. Luxshare is said to be closely in alignment with Apple's EV manufacturing needs for the China market and is reportedly preparing for the vehicle's debut in the country.

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The Book Page

On Ulysses.

Link here.

Notes From All Over, Monday Morning Memorial Day -- Mid-Morning Edition -- May 25, 2020

It's possible I'm misreading this story but if accurate it validates all those earlier stories that the "Tesla battery" was unsafe at any speed, to coin a phrase. LOL.

Despite the perception that tethered vehicles already have a too-limited range, apparently the industry is going to substitute safety for range.

From ArgusMedia (caution: acronym overload follows)

Chinese auto manufacturer BYD and US EV producer Tesla have released all-electric vehicles that use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.

BYD has released the Qin and Qin Pro, which has a driving range of 300 miles. The driving range for Qin was undisclosed.

Tesla has released a new model for its Model 3 series, with more details unavailable, according to the latest declaration catalogue issued by China's ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT).

MIIT's declaration catalogue includes 12 new energy vehicles (NEVs) that use LFP batteries, accounting for 24 percent of a total of 49 NEVs.

Suppliers of the LFP batteries are: BYD, CATL, Gotion High-Tech, Penghui, Anchi New Energy and Suzhou KeYi New Power.

BYD will also provide LFP batteries to GAC and Changan Ford, in addition to feeding its own EV production.

LFP batteries are promoted as having better safety performance and lower average costs, although its energy density and EV driving ranges are shorter than nickel-cobalt-manganese/nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCM/NCA) batteries. Many Chinese producers have put more effort into developing LFP batteries amid lower government subsidies.

I know a lot of millennials will wonder where the acronym LFP for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries came from but we'll leave that for another day.

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A Sophia Story

My wife re-told this story. I had not heard it before.

When Sophie was about two and half years old, her family visited us in San Pedro, CA, at Christmas, where my wife's "ancestral" home was located.

Sophia and her family had flown to Los Angeles from Texas, but then drove the long trip from southern California to Portland, OR, without many breaks, to visit aunt Laura and her husband Tim.

Following their visit, and on their way to skiing, Sophia's family was preparing to get back into their rental yet again when Sophie refused to get into the car. She had had enough driving around.

Her dad told Sophia to get in the car immediately or walk!

Sophie started walking away. Aunt Laura heard her mutter, “I want a new family!”

Idle Chatter -- Nothing About The Bakken -- December 25, 2016

This speaks volumes.

The New York Times has a huge story about the "seating arrangement of the White House pool." If you hit a paywall, google changes coming to White House press room: who, where, when, and how. In the big scheme of things, it's a pretty ridiculous article. Whatever.

Meanwhile, CNBC has a thoughtful article on the Trump rally and trade issues with China.

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Did Warren Bet On The Wrong Battery Company In China?

Speaking of China, there's an interesting article about EVs, batteries and China being reported by Reuters. Data points and comments from the article:

• EV battery plant located near Ningde, a third-tier city China's southeast
• the company: Contemporary Amperex Technology: could be China's answer to Japan's Panasonic Corp and South Korea's LG Chem Ltd
• CATL: has tripled its production capacity for lithium-ion car batteries in the past year
• surge required to keep up with a surge in China's sales of electric cars 
• growing very, very fast; has already overtaken LG Chem in lithium-ion car battery output; is chasing down Panasonic and Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co Ltd
• CATL plans to grow its battery capacity sixfold by 2020 to 50 gigawatt hours; this could put it ahead of Tesla Motor Inc's gigafactory in Nevada
• CATL was founded just five years ago; offices in Sweden, Germany, and France; plans to build a factory in Europe; due to non-disclosure agreements, can only list BMW as a customer for now

By the way, the article failed to mention where Ningde was located (except to say it was in the southeast). In fact, Ningde is in Fujian province; folks following the Chinese auto industry know the significance of Fujian province. On a US map overlaying China, Ningde would be in Florida, or maybe Georgia.

Much more at the link.

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 Wrong On So Many Levels

This is really cool. I missed it when I first read the story. But then watching Christie Hefner's recent keynote speech at Brandeis University on C-SPAN and then re-reading a few articles about free speech and the first amendment, resulted in some unusual dots being connected.

I assume folks are following the story linked over at Drudge: "Yes California," a pro-secession group, filed paperwork with the state attorney general in November for a proposed 2018 ballot measure to strike language in the state constitution binding California to the United States. This month, the group announced the opening of a "cultural center" in Moscow -- "the first of many planned California culture centers which will serve to build a bridge between the nation of California and the nations of the world," read a statement on Yes California's website.

What did I miss when I first read that article? I was concentrating on the issue of secession. The much bigger story is the location of their first "cultural center": Moscow.

It was like a light switch being turned on. The light: To the Finland Station, by Edmund Wilson, c. 1940.

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

And, then, of course, the real irony: why would Californians want their first "cultural center" in a country run by Putin? Am I missing something? And Moscow in the winter? It seems, based on what little I know, France has a lot more in common with "Yes California" than Moscow. Or even Athens.

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A Note For The Granddaughters

Every Christmas there are three television shows that will be shown:

• Miracle on 34th Street
• A Christmas Story
• It's a Wonderful Life

I think there's a new contender, but before I make my suggestion, I will check wiki for "classic Christmas movies" and see if it makes the list.

• the 100 best Christmas movies of all time
• the 50 best Christmas movies of all time

My suggestion was on neither list.

Apollo 13.

If Die Hard can make both lists (top 100, top 50) then certainly Apollo 13 needs to be on that list.

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 Down With A Cold

A little over a year ago, September 9, 2015, Queen Elizabeth II of England, became England's longest-serving monarch. She is 90 years old; her husband is 95.