Waking Up To A New World Order -- February 22, 2022

Updates

Later, 8:20 a.m. CT: amazing how fast WTI / Brent is moderating less than twelve hours after the "minor incursion.”

Original Post

Most interesting: Ukraine has been simmering for decades. No one had "Russian incursion" on their 2022 bingo card.

Zelenskyy: already talking about a post-incursion Ukraine suggesting things aren't going to be that bad. In fact, remove the politicians who are trying to make things worse and this is actually going to be good for the region. On so many levels. If that minor incursion stops here, in fact, some can argue Zelenskyy was "right" all along: Putin was not going to attack Ukraine; the two separatist provinces were more Russian than Ukraine. My hunch: folks in the know have already moved on. 

Spare capacity? Going. Going. Gone. Russia pumped 10 million bopd in January, 2022, and may exhaust its remaining 320,000 bopd spare capacity by mid-year. The "minor incursion" won't help. Platts Oil on twitter. 

UAE: second only to Saudi Arabia in the Mideast plans to invest $127 billion, 2022 - 2026, to expand its oil operations and develop .... drum roll ... its .... drum roll ... low-carbon oil business. Memo to self: google low-carbon oil. Here it is ... Forbes, The Oil Industry Jumps on the Low Carbon Bandwagon, February 8, 2021 -- that was one year ago. Two pieces:

• decrease combustion of fossil fuels via conservation and a switch to renewable energy; and,
• carbon capture and storage

My hunch: the UAE budget --

• $125 billion on conventional oil exploration, production, and export;
• $2 billion on "other stuff" that sounds good

Memo to self: update the Biden presidency scorecard.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$94.12	2/22/2022	02/22/2021	02/22/2020	02/22/2019	02/22/2018
Active Rigs	33	15	54	66	56

Tuesday, February 22, 2022: 43 for the month, 98 for the quarter, 98 for the year

• 38149, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 14-5H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
• 38062, conf,  Hess, GO-Soine A-156-97-2932H-3, Dollar Joe, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 104K 12/21;
• 37781, conf, Hess, EN-Rice_A-155-94-0310H-6, Manitou, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 121K 12/21;

Monday, February 21, 2022: 40 for the month, 95 for the quarter, 95 for the year

• 38148, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 13-5H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

Sunday, February 20, 2022: 39 for the month, 94 for the quarter, 94 for the year

• 38147, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 12-5H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
• 37798, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 342-3BH, Fertile Valley, no production data,
• 37797, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 3410-2BH, Bar Butte, no production data,

Saturday, February 19, 2022: 36 for the month, 91 for the quarter, 91 for the year

• 34062, conf, Enerplus, Recluse 149-92-32C-29H-TF1, Heart Butte, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 92K 12/21;

RBN Energy: lucrative opportunities for renewable propane flow into low-carbon fuel markets. 

It burns just like propane, smells just like propane, and gets transported just like propane. But instead of being extracted at gas processing plants or refineries, it is produced from renewable feedstocks like used cooking oil or soybean oil, and so it has a low carbon intensity. That means it is eligible for low-carbon fuel credits, like those available in California. Renewable propane has been around for years but has never gotten much traction due to a combination of technical and economic issues. Now that is changing, with a deal announced last week by a major propane retailer and a biorefiner showing the way to a win-win-win for the producer, the marketer, and the environment. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a deep-dive series on where renewable propane comes from, why it has been a challenge to get the market going, and what changes may create significant opportunities across the renewable propane value chain.