OPEC+ Ready To Retaliate -- November 24, 2021

Link to ZeroHedge.

OPEC+ needs to make formal statement that it will cut production to match global release of crude oil from SPRs. 

Whether they do it or not, inconsequential. Just the thought that they might is key.

But it's important for Saudi Arabia to remind Brandon who's boss. And to remind folks that it was Brandon who killed the Keystone XL which would look awful good right now. 

With regard to Brandon's next step this is a nice summary:

One final point: while not even the Biden admin is dumb enough to consider it, some have speculated that once the SPR release is shown to be a total disaster, Biden may implement an oil export ban. 

The problem: this would have catastrophic consequences. As Goldman explains, a US export ban would significantly disrupt the US and global oil markets, and potentially be a counterproductive tool to attempt to lower oil prices.

The US exports 3 mb/d of crude and domestic pipelines would not be able to reroute these volumes to US refiners, which further don’t have enough capacity to process this much crude.

This would leave excess US crude supply quickly reaching tank tops and forcing shut-in production, with investment and production soon to enter significant declines. At the same time, the global market would be deprived of 3 mb/d of US supply (light sweet crude that is Brent like in quality). Brent prices would therefore need to spike to push demand lower as there is simply not enough spare capacity (nor suitable crude) to replace US lost exports.

Finally, with the US an importer of gasoline from Europe, US gasoline prices would spike to curtail domestic demand, creating a negative hit to US economic activity.

Not said: a US crude oil ban would cause Brent to spike and regardless of the amount of crude oil in the US, the price of WTI follows Brent, though the spread would widen.

Biggest losers: Japan, Europe, and China. 

Biggest winners: Saudi Arabia; Putin, and Big Oil.

Biden is playing checkers (when he's awake). OPEC+ is playing chess.

Brent and WTI continue to climb, albeit slowly.

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Clint Eastwood

Wow, wow, wow --- The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly has just come on. What a great morning of movies. I had forgotten how incredible the opening credits were -- with the music. Time to have le petit déjeuner avec café noir y dejar para  la cueva de murciélagos. LOL. A little English, French, and Spanish. 

The Germans are well known for combining words resulting in very, very long nouns and verbs. My little introduction to Spanish suggests the latter like big words, also. 

Exhibit A, the English, "too," in Spanish, is demasiado. Yes, there is a shorter alternative, también.