The Market, Energy, Political Page, T+29 -- June 29, 2018

End of 1Q18. Last day of trading for this half. "The market" just wants to go up. This is called climbing the wall of worry. The best opportunity for investors and traders.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

GDP for 1Q18 was disappointing.

But it could be worse. It could be Hillary's economy.

New Jersey is facing a "partial" government shutdown -- it would include closing the beaches for July 4th. Think about that.

My hunch: if the state government closes Jersey beaches on July 4, the governor will  have to send in the national guard to stem the tide of illegal beach-goers. They may have to build a wall. Bruce Springsteen will have to do a concert on the New Jersey Turnpike. The New Jersey story at this link. Dems vs Dems on whether to raise taxes on New Jersey millionaires. By the way, one senior New Jersey democrat flip-flopped on the issue. Under Governor Christie, the senator voted for the tax increase knowing Christie would veto it. Knowing the current governor will sign the bill, the senior and very influential democrat is now against raising taxes on himself ... er, I mean, the wealthy.

Under the Boardwalk, The Drifters
Call me hypocritical. After reading a bit more of the Harley-Davidson story, I think the story is being hyped. I don't like Harley-Davidson "caving to the EU, but I agree with the motorcycle manufacturer on this one. No need falling on one's sword on this issue. The link here. On the other hand, I can't disagree with those who suggest a EU tariff of $2,200 to the cost of a Harley in Europe would be that big a deal either. Europeans looking to buy a Harley are very, very well off. Amortized over five years, $2,200 equates to about a dollar a day. So, maybe it's a wash. But I do like Trump calling Harley-Davidson out on this one. I guess I'm confused. Actually, now that I've said all that, I think Harley-Davidson is wrong on this issue.


Poll: what do you think?

• Harley is doing the right thing by moving some production to Europe: 34%
• Harley should not move any production to Europe: 66%

Maybe this would be a nice compromise: build a Harley-Davidson manufacturing plant in Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada.

Back to tariffs: darling, don't be afraid, stand by me -- @realDonaldTrump --

Stand By Me, Ben E King
Trans Mountain: assuming the pipeline ever gets built, just how much money did the protestors cost their country? Crude oil continues to advance, and yet the spread between WTI/Brent and Western Canadian Select is incredible. Even worse, countries will find alternatives to Canadian oil and will be hesitant to switch when/if Canadian heavy oil is ever available. Crude oil prices today:

• LLS: $79.91 (probably going higher; this is "old" quote)
• WTI; $74.19, up another percent today
• Brent: $78.75, up 1.5% today
• OPEC Basket:  $74.31, up over 2% today
• Western Canadian Select: $46.45 -- $30 less than LLS -- and the Gulf Coast refineries would love to have heavy oil from Canada