Manic Monday -- The Bakken -- July 13, 2026

Locator: 51153B.

The strait: 

• Trump will reinstate the blockade against Iran;
• the USA will be reimbursed 20% on the value of all cargo shipped brought through the strait 
• to compensate the USA for protecting the strait

***********************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $74.60.

New wells reporting today:

• Tuesday, July 14, 2026: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 376 for the year, 
• None.
• Monday, July 13, 2026: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 376 for the year, 
• 41918, conf, Murfin Drilling, MH Hecker 1-11H, 
• 40623, conf, Devon Energy, Skaar 15-22 6H, 
• Sunday, July 12, 2026: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 374 for the year, 
• 42042, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willow Gray 2-11-14-23 4H, 
• 42041, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willow Gray 2-11-14-23 3H, 
• 42040, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willow Gray 2-11-14-23 2H, 
• 42039, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willow Gray 2-11-14-23 1H-LL, 
• 41548, conf, Oasis, Ellis 5602 13-17 4B,
• Saturday, July 11, 2026: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 369 for the year, 
• 41619, conf, Devon Energy, Sanders 34-27 5H, 

RBN Energy: more on how hyperscalers mitigate the impacts of their fast-rising use of natural gas. Link here. Archived here.

There are several approaches environmentally inclined hyperscalers can take to mitigate the climate-related impacts of their increasing consumption of natural gas for data centers. These include buying and retiring environmental credits for low-methane-intensity (low-MI) gas; capturing and sequestering most of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by their gas plants; developing new wind, solar and geothermal projects (either onsite or elsewhere) to offset the gas-fired generation; and buying power from existing nuclear units and/or supporting the development of new ones. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at what hyperscalers are doing to mitigate the impacts of their growing reliance on natural gas.

As we said in Part 1, many of the nation’s largest hyperscalers — companies like Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft — now acknowledge that the need to rapidly ramp up the availability of around-the-clock electricity to power their new data centers gives them little choice but to rely heavily on gas-fired generation, at least for the near term. The catch is that these gas-dependent plans conflict head-on with the companies’ long-stated “net zero” goals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, so many of these same AI giants are taking aggressive steps to mitigate the environmental impact of their fast-rising gas use.

We also summarized the major hyperscalers’ stated goals for reducing GHGs and the new challenges they face in meeting those goals, and identified the primary approaches that hyperscalers are leaning into — noted just above.

Today, we will put a little more meat on those bones, focusing initially on what seems sure to be a popular tactic, namely the purchase and retirement of low-MI gas certificates (aka MiQ certificates) tied to natural gas that has been independently certified as having very low methane intensity. As we said a while back in our Drill Down Report on certified gas (aka differentiated gas), there are a variety of efforts underway in the U.S. and elsewhere to make the natural gas piece of the global energy puzzle as clean as it can be. A primary focus of these efforts is on reducing as much as possible the amount of methane (CH4) — the main ingredient in natural gas — that is released into the atmosphere along its route from the production well to the end-user’s burner tip.

There’s good reason for zeroing in on methane emissions. Methane is a particularly potent GHG, with 84 times the atmospheric heat-trapping effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the short term (five to 20 years). That means reducing methane emissions along the gas value chain has quick and very positive climate effects.

Certified gas is natural gas that an independent auditor has verified against a third-party standard, thereby providing a credible and transparent accounting of emissions performance. For the most part, the certified gas movement has focused on the upstream end, namely where gas is produced, either in gas-focused plays like the Marcellus/Utica and the Haynesville or crude-oil-focused plays like the Permian and the Bakken, where large volumes of associated gas (a mix of methane, NGLs and various impurities) emerges from wells with crude oil.

Random Update -- Atmospheric CO2 -- November 16, 2025

Locator: 49727CO2.

I quit following atmospheric CO2 some years ago, but every so often I check back in to see what's going on.

This is the site I always use: Earth CO2. 

The site seems to be a bit sketchier than usual. At the top, this banner:

Why they leave up "February CO2" is beyond me but that hasn't changed ... well, since February, 2024. 

December Temperature? What's that all about? Obviously that's December, 2024 -- almost a year ago. This is the reason they go back to 1880 - 1920:

Considering all the coal that China is burning, I just can't get too excited about these numbers. In fact, if we're talking only 1.55°C since 1900, an increase of 1.55°C over 125 years isn't all that remarkable. Also, it appears that the number for February, 2025, was 427.09 compared with a most recent reading of 428.29 for November, 2025. I doubt that is statistically significant nor repeatable (if they were to test again). 

All in all, this is really a pretty amateurish website considering the billions of dollars the sponsors are demanding from western nations

Global Warming, Increasing Atmospheric CO2, And That Record US Corn Crop -- October 26, 2025

Locator: 49524GLOBALWARMING.

Making the rounds, link here. 

"This" was brought up years ago about what global warming meant for US agriculture. This was "predicted" by some crackpots years ago. I was one of those crackpots that raised the issue. I was involved in research back in the early 1970s so I am not quite as naive as folks might think (LOL).

Whatever.

The AI prompt:  

I'm sure there's much more to it and there's absolutely no connection but it's interesting that the US will be reporting a record corn harvest this year, at the very same time as the earth continues to warm (global warming) and atmospheric CO2 is rising -- the basic "food" for plants. 

Have any "legitimate" news sources commented on this?

AI reply:

 *****************************
History

Global warming, longer growing seasons, increasing atmospheric CO2?

Corn And CO2 -- September 15, 2025

Locator: 49108CORN.

Re-posting, from September 20, 2024. Link here.

This was a big story for me. While in college, I participated in a study on the North Slope, Barrow, Alaska, studying the CO2-utilizing efficiency of the grasses there.

Locator: 48343CORN.

A tip of the hat to Geoff Simon for finding this one.

Link here.

Corn, or maize, is foundational—along with rice, wheat, soyabean—to global food security, serving as a critical source of nourishment for both humans and livestock. Over the past few decades, increases in atmospheric CO2 from industrial emissions have tracked with notable boosts in corn yields.

Between 1900 and 2024, the national corn yield in the U.S. rose to 183 bushels per acre (bu/A) from just 28 bushels. During the same period, atmospheric CO2 increased from 295 parts per million (ppm) to 419 ppm. Worldwide, corn yield rose from a mere 29 bu/A in 1961 to 86 bu/A in 2021.

This phenomenon is not merely coincidental; it is deeply rooted in the physiological characteristics of corn as a C4 category plant. C4 plants like corn – so named for the number of carbon atoms in their photosynthetic product — possess unique biochemical pathways that make their photosynthesis particularly efficient under high concentrations of CO2 and elevated temperatures. Such plants employ a mechanism that concentrates CO2 in specialized structures called bundle sheath cells.

Higher CO2 levels also improve water-use efficiency in corn, which is particularly beneficial where water supplies are limited or during droughts. This efficiency translates into enhanced growth rates and potentially greater yields. In fact, researchers say that “less water will be required for corn under a high-CO2 environment in the future than at present.”

One wonders if corn might be grown above the Arctic Circle? Corn, from seed to maturation, 60 to 100 days based on variety. The "warm season" in Barrow, Alaska, lasts 3.3 months = 99 days. Wheat? Slightly longer.

Atmospheric CO2 Update -- August 21, 2025

Locator: 48916CO2.

Link here.

I quit tracking atmospheric CO2 a long, long time ago.

I was curious. I checked in today.

Wow, they used to post updated numbers one month after the measurements -- gave them time to "massage" the numbers.

I see now they're taking a whole year to "massage" the numbers before releasing them:

And in some cases, like August, 2024, they don't even have the data:

Corn -- It's Amaizing -- September 2024

Locator: 48343CORN.

A tip of the hat to Geoff Simon for finding this one.

Link here.

Corn, or maize, is foundational—along with rice, wheat, soyabean—to global food security, serving as a critical source of nourishment for both humans and livestock. Over the past few decades, increases in atmospheric CO2 from industrial emissions have tracked with notable boosts in corn yields.

Between 1900 and 2024, the national corn yield in the U.S. rose to 183 bushels per acre (bu/A) from just 28 bushels. During the same period, atmospheric CO2 increased from 295 parts per million (ppm) to 419 ppm. Worldwide, corn yield rose from a mere 29 bu/A in 1961 to 86 bu/A in 2021.

This phenomenon is not merely coincidental; it is deeply rooted in the physiological characteristics of corn as a C4 category plant. C4 plants like corn – so named for the number of carbon atoms in their photosynthetic product — possess unique biochemical pathways that make their photosynthesis particularly efficient under high concentrations of CO2 and elevated temperatures. Such plants employ a mechanism that concentrates CO2 in specialized structures called bundle sheath cells.

Higher CO2 levels also improve water-use efficiency in corn, which is particularly beneficial where water supplies are limited or during droughts. This efficiency translates into enhanced growth rates and potentially greater yields. In fact, researchers say that “less water will be required for corn under a high-CO2 environment in the future than at present.”

One wonders if corn might be grown above the Arctic Circle? Corn, from seed to maturation, 60 to 100 days based on variety. The "warm season" in Barrow, Alaska, lasts 3.3 months = 99 days. Wheat? Slightly longer.

TGIF -- July 12, 2024

Locator: 48116B.

Gaslighting: the word for the day.

 PPI: for the market, for JPow, not helpful.

*******************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: up about 1%. Back to $83.45.

Sunday, July 14, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 354 for the year
None.

Saturday, July 13, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 354 for the year
None.

Friday, July 12, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 354 for the year
40244, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay 5292 22-7 9BX (Oasis naming scheme),
40230, conf, Neptune Operating, Gustafson 5-8 4H,

RBN Energy: EU methane regs to begin impacting US natural gas producers. 

Three phenomena — the European Union’s laser focus on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the EU’s now-significant reliance on LNG from the U.S., and the impending startup of new LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast — are converging, with potentially significant implications for gas producers and LNG exporters alike. Starting next year, U.S. and other suppliers that ship LNG to EU member countries will need to begin complying with the EU’s methane emissions reporting requirements — full compliance is mandatory by 2027, and in 2030 and beyond the gas exported to the EU will be expected to meet a to-be-determined methane intensity (MI) target. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the EU methane regulations are still a work in progress, but they provide another reason why U.S. gas producers have been increasing their monitoring of methane emissions and their efforts to reduce them. 

We’ve been tracking the certified/differentiated gas movement for some time now, most thoroughly in a five-part series a few months ago. In Part 1, we discussed the outsized climate impact of methane emissions — a GHG with more than 80 times the atmospheric heat-trapping effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the short term (five to 20 years) — and the push by an increasing number of E&Ps to reduce their methane emissions and get credit from the market for those achievements. Part 2 focused on the push by gas producers to have their gas certified (i.e., scored or assessed) as a “low-emissions” hydrocarbon allowing for a differentiated product based on the percentage of methane that escapes into the atmosphere during the production process, with higher marks being given to gas with a lower MI. We also discussed two alternatives for gas producers seeking to certify or differentiate their gas (MiQ and Project Canary) and noted that as much as one-third of the natural gas being produced in the U.S. each day was already being certified/differentiated by one of them.

My Favorite Chart Updated -- February 18, 2024

Locator: 46838MMF. 

Link here. Starting to look like the global atmospheric CO2 chart.

************************************
A Bit More Detail

From February 1, 2024: 

Locator: 46710INV.

Investors are happy about all this cash on the sideline. They shouldn't be; we've discussed this before (December 19, 2023):

More than $6 trillion "on the sidelines." Some talking heads on CNBC and some tweeters opine that a lot of that money could flow back into the equity market in 2024 if the Fed cuts rates. Not gonna happen. Most of that money was moved from checking and savings accounts at banks. Huge problem for regional banks. Some of that MMF money will flow back into the equity market but most of it will stay in MMFs. Compared to MMFs, equities are riskier and even at 2%, MMF compare favorably with equities in many cases. 

People that put money into MMFss are not going to put that money into the stock market. At least not $6 trillion. My mother exemplified the typical "investor" in MMFs, as does my wife. 

Link here.

Headlines — December 15, 2023

Locator: 46307B.

Did JPow wait too long? Empire State manufacturing index down a whopping 14% versus an estimated increase. A decline in any manufacturing index makes some folks think “recession.”

COP28: time to phase out natural gas. Final statement. Meanwhile, coal? Demand will hit all-time high in 2023 — current year. I assume the same in 2024. 

Inflation: two components — go back to this post — goods and services. Now, see Peter Zeihan today. Consider his prediction in light of AI.

I've got some good news and some bad news on inflation in the US...one has to do with COVID, and the other is about the labor market. Which do you want first? 

Let's start with the good news. The US is finally emerging from its COVID mask of changing consumer behavior and crazy supply chain dynamics. That means we've settled into more stable consumption patterns, and supply chains have finally caught up...so headline inflation is decreasing. 

Yay! Now, onto the bad news. We're entering a (two-decade-long) period of labor shortages. As baby boomers retire, the Zoomers won't be able to keep up with labor demands. And that shortage is only going to get worse until the mid-2030s. While it's nice to finally see COVID in the rearview mirror, we're coming up on something much stickier that will plague our inflation rates for a while.

Southern surge: jobs these folks are taking won’t be affected by AI to extent others may be.Think about that in regard to Peter Zeihan’s comments today.

Missed the rally: 85% of individually-held stocks are owned by millionaires. Most missed the 2023 run because they were weighted heavily in cash. Study: CNBC. See “my favorite chart.” 

Work force participation disconnect: “return-to-work” mandates disconnected with role of stay-at-home moms with children.

RMDs: fifteen days left. Trading days? Eleven days including today. Twenty percent of folks haven’t taken their RMDs. It will start next week. How does that impact the rally? Link here. Those folks that waited are going to do very well.

RMD reminder: This year is unusual in that there isn’t a big cohort of 70-somethings taking their RMDs for the first time. The starting age had been 72 until the Secure 2.0 Act passed at the end of 2022 bumped it up to 73, effective this year. People turning 73 this year were subject to the requirement last year at age 72, while people turning 72 this year got a reprieve until 2024. All things being equal this will extend the bull market through 2024.

*********************************

Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.15

Sunday, December 17, 2023: 21 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 740 for the year 

39696, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HIL, 

Saturday, December 16, 2023: 20 for the month; 169 for the quarter, 739 for the year 
None. 

Friday, December 15, 2023: 20 for the month; 169 for the quarter, 739 for the year
39291, conf, Hess, GO-TONG Trust A-17-96-2032H-3,

RBN Energy: how will EPA’s methane rule impact the certified/differentiated gas market?

The Biden administration’s recent announcement at the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai that it has issued a final rule on reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas industry raises an important question: If the feds will be requiring every producer to phase out flaring, install new equipment, and meet new, aggressive standards for emissions monitoring and leak detection and repair, will there still be a need for entities like MiQ and Project Canary to score or assess the lower-emissions natural gas produced by a significant subset of enviro-conscious E&Ps? 

In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the potential impacts of the new EPA rule on gas certification/differentiation and the development of a market for low-methane gas. This blog series’ aim is to examine the certified/differentiated gas movement, which has been driven to a large degree by growing interest among gas producers, shippers and buyers alike in gas that is produced, processed and transported with minimal emissions of methane along the way. 

In Part 1, we discussed the outsized climate impact of methane emissions — a greenhouse gas (GHG) with more than 80 times the atmospheric heat-trapping effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the short term (five to 20 years) — and the push by an increasing number of E&Ps to reduce their methane emissions and get credit from the market for those achievements. Part 2 focused on the push by gas producers to have their gas certified as a “low-emissions” hydrocarbon and differentiated (i.e., scored or assessed) based on the percentage of methane that escapes into the atmosphere during the production process, with higher marks being given to gas with a lower methane intensity (MI). We also discussed the two primary alternatives for gas producers seeking to certify or differentiate their gas (MiQ and Project Canary) and noted that as much as one-third of the natural gas being produced in the U.S. each day is certified/differentiated by one of them.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- November 8, 2023

Locator: 45989B.    

NASDAQ: up 30% for the year. 

Household net worth: cup is half full. 

Screenshot, streaming, from bat cave, last night, November 7, 2023, about 5:45 p..m. CT:

E-mail access, update. This all began November 5, 2023, at which time I wrote: 

I do not have access to my e-mail account that I use for the account associated with the blog. I will not be receiving any e-mail for an undetermined period of time. I'm not sure yet if I can moderate comments for the blog without e-mail access. But if you are e-mailing me or if you send a comment for the blog, I won't be seeing it. I'm not purposely ignoring you. The problem is being worked. We will know more tomorrow. The blog, fortunately, is not affected. 

The Yahoo! folks have been wonderful, incredible. They have a fix to get my e-mail account re-established, but I have not re-established the account. My biggest concern was whether the account had been hacked. The Yahoo! folks did not specifically address that issue, and I'm not sure they would be allowed to, but based on our lengthy conversations, it is clear my e-mail account was not compromised. Knowing my accounts have not been hacked, I’m greatly relieved but it raises the question whether associating an e-mail address with a blog is a smart practice.

*****************************
Personal Investing
Today: I was done with buying any more "oil" but this is a rare opportunity.

• bought AAPL at the open
  
• bought DVN at the open; paying 11.04%; and increasing its dividend.
  
• bought  CVX at the open; pays 4%;
  
• no plans to sell anything 

 

 ***************************** 
Back to the Bakken 

 WTI: ouch.  Thursday, November 9, 2023: 106 for the month; 106 for the quarter, 676 for the year 39707, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 5B, 37327, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 4-19H,  Wednesday, November 8, 2023: 104 for the month; 104 for the quarter, 674 for the year 38097, conf, Enerplus, Narwhal 148-94-05D-06H, 38096, conf, Enerplus, Brydes 148-93-05D-06H, Bryde's whale;  RBN Energy: wide range of producers lining up to prove their natural gas is “low emissions.”

Over the past couple of years, a growing number of natural gas producers — from global integrateds like ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP to E&Ps large, medium and small — have contracted with entities like MiQ and Project Canary to scrutinize their upstream operations and score their relative success in minimizing methane emissions. By some estimates, as much as one-third of U.S. gas production is already “certified” or “differentiated,” and with growing interest in “low-emissions” gas among domestic and international buyers the trend seems likely to accelerate. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at certified/differentiated gas with a review of the gas producers leading the way. 

In this blog series, we’re examining the certified/differentiated gas ”movement” from just about every angle. In Part 1, we said there are a variety of efforts underway to make the natural gas piece of the global energy puzzle as clean as it can be. The primary focus of these efforts is on reducing as much as possible the amount of methane (CH4) — the main ingredient in natural gas — that is released into the atmosphere along its route from the production well to the end-user’s burner tip. We noted that there’s good reason for zeroing in on methane emissions: Methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas (GHG), with more than 80 times the atmospheric heat-trapping effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the short term (five to 20 years). That means reducing methane emissions along the gas value chain has quick and very positive climate effects.

Atmospheric CO2 -- September, 2022, Data

Locator: 45816CO2.

Link here.

Atmospheric CO2 -- August, 2023

Locator: 45577CO2.

Link here.

Despite all those Canadian fires and the huge fire in Maui, atmospheric CO2 rose at no great rate than predicted.

Atmospheric CO2 -- July 2023

Locator: 45413CO2.

Month-over-month, a slight decrease, but that's seasonal and occurs every July. Year-over-year, the typical increase.

Link here.

This Is Absolutely Obscene -- August 6, 2023

 Locator: 45360CO2.

Atmospheric CO2:

Two links with the same story.

• link one;
• link two.

From a reader:

If you look at the Giga tonnes of CO2 from the coal used by China. then add in the 290 mega-tonnes of smoke from Canada in the first 7 months, and really the world smoke /CO2 number of 425 PPM or what ever it is, is not so bad. 

Then the Bombing/burning for 18 months in Ukraine... and "they" think the US is singularly responsible or atmospheric CO2.

Atmospheric CO2 -- June, 2023

Locator: 45935WHOCARESANYMORE. 

Link here. 

 

Atmospheric CO2 -- June 16, 2023

Locator: 44951WHOCARESANYMORE.   

Atmospheric CO2, link here:

 

TGIF -- WTI Holds Above $70 -- June 16, 2023

Locator: 44948GMA.  

101 days of summer: day 20.

• biking weather on scale of 1 - 10: a seven; quite windy
  

Wow. What a day. Yesterday. Today it's going to be even busier as far as blogging goes. A lot of charts to update.

WTI: a reader sent a chart corroborating my thoughts on the price of oil -- thoughts I posted yesterday or the day before.

Short squeeze: it took awhile but I finally one mention of the phenomenon that propelled the market yesterday to new highs across the board. FOMO-->rally-->short squeeze-->profit taking.

Apple: one or two more updates today. Truly incredible, the technology for such a low price. The brand new 15-inch M2 Macbook Air is already on sale at Amazon, from $1,299 to $1,199. 

Atmospheric CO2: new numbers out. No surprises.

My favorite chart: new numbers out and a big surprise.

TGT: Barron's writer "missed" the big story. I'll update the TGT post later.

ERCOT: easily meeting demand. Most recent electricity rates by state (EIA data) posted. Of the cities in the lower 48 (does not include Hawaii or Alaska) guess which major city has the highest electric rate. You might be surprised. Or not.

GDPNow: new chart released yesterday.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.76.

Sunday, June 18, 2023: 36 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 399 for the year
39398, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 2H,
39303, conf, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 8-6H,

Saturday, June 17, 2023: 34 for the month; 142 for the quarter, 397 for the year
38633, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-2H,

Friday, June 16, 2023: 33 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 396 for the year
39397, conf, Krakken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 3H,

 

RBN Energy: E&Ps face tougher decisions about allocating dwindling free cash flow.

We’re now in the midst of the summer vacation season, but a recent survey showed that just two out of five Americans are planning a trip that requires a flight and/or hotel stay — the fact is, inflation has whittled away at discretionary income. U.S. E&P companies are in a similar boat. After a brutal decade marked by intense commodity price volatility, oil and gas producers over the past couple of years have won back investors with a new fiscally conservative approach that prioritizes harvesting free cash flow to fund surging shareholder returns. But more recently, lower commodity prices and persistent inflation have significantly eroded the funds available for dividends and share repurchases. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the increasingly difficult cash allocation decisions oil and gas producers made in Q1 2023 and are likely to face in future quarters.

First, a couple definitions. Discretionary income is what’s left after we pay our taxes and fixed costs like housing, food, and clothing. We can use the remainder to save or invest, treat ourselves to luxuries, donate to charity, indulge in recreation, etc. The equivalent for E&Ps is cash flow from operating activities (CFOA), which is the net income the company generates adjusted for non-cash expenses like depreciation and stock-based compensation, and for changes in working capital. The largest allocation of this cash is investing in replenishing oil and gas reserves and growing production through capital expenditures. What’s left is free cash flow, the funds available to fund acquisitions, pay down debt, and return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

Atmospheric CO2 -- April, 2023

Locator: 44606CO2. 

Link here.

Atmospheric CO2 -- March, 2023

Locator: 44360B.  

Before we get started: the earth's oceans are now rising at 0.13 inches per year. That's over a foot over 100 years.

Link here.

Atmospheric CO2 -- February, 2023

On a percentage basis, one of the smallest increases m/m ever?