Wiki.
Willie Nelson's 90th birthday concert, the Hollywood Bowl, held and filmed in April, 2023, but aired nationally, December 17, 2023.
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The Blog
Locator: 51725B.
Tag: Beck.
Updates
Focus on dividends: I'm sure I posted this but perhaps I didn't. Can't remember. UNP announced a 3% increase in its annual dividend back on July 29, 2026, record date August 31, 2026, and payable at the end of the month, September 30, 2026. The new quarterly dividend is $1.48, up from $1.38. Link here.
WTI: early evening -- the price of WTI has increased significantly from $102.5 to $103.30 in the last few hours. My hunch: President Trump is watching this closely and is on the phone with Doug Burgum. His next call: to CENTCOM.
Most important NFL game this year: tonight's Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants. Let me clarify that: most important for Jerry Jones.
Movie night: Alejandro González Iñárritu. Link here.
In 2006, Iñárritu won the Best Director Award at the Cannes Film Festival. In 2019, Iñárritu was president of the jury for the 72nd Cannes Film Festival.
Iñárritu was awarded the Academy Award for Best Director for Birdman (2014) and for The Revenant (2015), making him the third director to win the award back-to-back, following in the footsteps of John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz.
To date, he is the only director in history to have won the DGA Award for Outstanding Directing two years in a row. Iñárritu was later awarded a Special Achievement Academy Award for his virtual reality installation Carne y Arena (2017), the first ever VR installation to be presented at the Cannes Film Festival.
Now Digger. The 4-minute trailer.
Kennedy Center: faces bankruptcy without Trump's name on the building. Link here.
Global warming / climate change, link here:
Original Post
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $102.50. Price of WTI now back to where it was under President Biden, see below.
For additional information on the Zavanna Rennerfeldt wells mentioned below, see this post.
New wells reporting:
- Tuesday, September 15, 2026: 33 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 470 for the year,
- 42028, conf, Oasis, Milkweed 5302 14-365B,
- 41996, conf, Hess, EN-Will Trust C-157-94-2215H-6,
- 41993, conf, Hess, EN-Will Trust A-157-94-2734H-4,
- 41727, conf, BR, HBU Hazel 6S MBH,
- 41631, conf, BR, HBU Badlands 8S MBH,
- Monday, September 14, 2026: 28 for the month, 108 for the quarter, 465 for the year,
- 41719, conf, BR, HBU Hazel 1N MBH,
- 41630, conf, BR, HBU Badlands 3N MBH,
- Sunday, September 13, 2026: 26 for the month, 106 for the quarter, 463 for the year,
- 41629, conf, BR, HBU Badlands 7S MBH,
- 41570, conf, Oasis, Dolls Daisy Federal 5301 31-31 6B,
- 40916, conf, Zavanna, Rennerfeldt 13-36 4H,
- Saturday, September 12, 2026: 23 for the month, 103 for the quarter, 460 for the year,
- 42236, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 2104-5BH,
- 41628, conf, BR, HBU Badlands 2N MBH,
- 41569, conf, Oasis, Dolls Daisy 5301 31-31 5B,
- 40917, conf, Zavanna, Rennerfeldt 13-26 4H,
RBN Energy: with US refiners already running hard, relief on diesel remains elusive. Link here. Archived. See also this link -- the chokepoint is not storage facilities (they are empty in many cases) but rather the pipelines, trucks, and rail. The latter (pipelines, trucks, rail) are maxed out and can't handle much more diesel in the areas where they need it most.
A $100/bbl diesel crack spread is an incredibly strong market signal, but it doesn’t translate to higher refinery output because most U.S. refiners already operate at or near their practical limits. As global supply disruptions drain inventories and foreign buyers pull more barrels from the U.S., diesel prices have surged even as domestic refinery runs remain near historic highs. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why high crack spreads don’t necessarily increase a refinery’s output, how market disruptions elsewhere can drain U.S. inventories, and the indicators that will help tell us whether the diesel squeeze is easing (or worsening).
As we noted in Part 1 of this mini-series, 2026 will be remembered by some as the year that diesel cracks topped the century mark ($100/bbl) for the first time. On August 17, the U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spread (vs. WTI Cushing) surpassed that sky-high level. On Monday, September 1, 2026, the diesel crack closed at $103.29/bbl, the highest close on record, before reaching a record high intraday price the following day of $108.02/bbl. As of publication, the diesel crack soared even higher, closing at a new record high of $107.72/bbl on September 10. It’s important to note that global crude markets are not terribly short of crude in the traditional sense (despite various geopolitically driven constraints). Instead, the world is struggling to refine enough crude oil into middle distillates to satisfy demand. U.S. distillate stocks in August were on track for their lowest end-of-month level since April 2005 and were the lowest for the month since 1951.
A crack spread measures the difference between the value of refined products and the crude oil used to produce them. A $100/bbl headline diesel crack (the right end of the orange line, measured against the left axis in Figure 1 below) does not mean a refinery earns $100/bbl in net profit.
First and foremost, U.S. refiners and importers currently incur approximately $15 in RVO/RIN compliance costs for every barrel of diesel sold domestically. That cost is passed through 100% into the domestic diesel price. The headline crack therefore includes the full RVO/RIN cost—an amount the refinery must spend on compliance rather than retain as margin. To calculate the effective crack spread, the entire RVO/RIN cost per barrel of diesel must be deducted:
Effective diesel crack = Headline diesel crack − RVO/RIN cost per barrel of diesel.
Thus, a $100/bbl headline crack less than a $15/bbl RVO/RIN cost yields an $85/bbl effective crack (still a historical high value), before operating costs and other expenses. The same distinction explains why, on a comparable basis, U.S. diesel exports to Latin America typically sell at a discount to domestic diesel equal to the RVO/RIN cost: exported barrels do not carry that domestic compliance obligation.
In addition, refiners still have operating expenses, transportation costs, financing costs, hedging effects and the economics of the other products produced by the refinery. Instead, it means that the market value of diesel relative to crude has become extraordinarily high. If crude (blue line and left axis) is expensive because the world is short of barrels, crude prices should be doing most of the work. But when diesel prices (green dashed line and right axis) rise dramatically relative to crude, the problem is further downstream.
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Weekend News
Haircuts among men: data has changed significantly since Covid-19. Link here.
Overall, men aged 25 - 65 getting haircuts in licensed barbershops has dropped about 4% since Covid-19. However, time between haircuts has stretch from 4 weeks (prior to Covid) to 8 weeks in 2026. The national average for men's haircuts now runs about $45.
I don't believe that.
Another query resulted in this more believable result:The average cost of a men's haircut in the United States ranges from $30 to $45, though prices typically span from $15 to $75+ depending on the type of establishment and your location.
I personally get all my haircuts from Sophia, now age 12. I haven't visited a licensed barbershop since March, 2020.
Saudi Arabia: shuts down its major pipeline that was the "answer" to the strait. More and more it looks like a Pyrrhic / political victory for Iran.
Colonel: the commander of the USS George Washington.
Weekend Sports
NASCAR: with 21 laps to go, under yellow -- the field is getting new tires, some get two, some get four -- finally back to green, under 20 laps to go ..
Brad K. leading ... then Logano, Larson, Bell .... four-wide at some points ... Logano takes the lead after the re-start .... Logano, Larson ahead of Brad K ... huge wreck at 18 laps to go ... Hamlin to #1 in the standings ... Bell drops 24 points in the chase behind Hamlin and Bell may drop further ... 23 looked like he was going to get through it .. but 23 ends up spinning ... Bubba Wallace ... #23 ... Bubba just happened to be in wrong place at wrong spot .... just hard racing ... nothing intentional ... 15 laps to go .... under yellow ... by the time this gets back to green, it may be one last restart and then one and done ... still Logano, Larson, Brad K, Chastin .. back to green ... 13 laps to go ... another crash down the back stretch ... today is the "caution that won't end" .... still 13 laps to go and back to yellow .... middle of the pack involved, so leaders remain the same ... now, full stop RED ... with 11 laps to go ... back to yellow ... 10 laps to go .... looks like we will be under yellow for awhile ... back to green ... seven to go ... Larson, Logano, Bowman, Chastain ... it looks they may be able to complete the last 5 laps .... if Larson wins it will be the first Chevrolet win in 10 races ... three laps to go .... yellow with three laps to go .. #17 "exploded," into the wall ... it's over for them ... single vehicle mishap ... yellow ... so, yup, green, white, black, coming up .... oh, I guess they're in a red for the clean-up ... this will be a two-lap shoot-out ... back to yellow, overtime ... Larson, Logano, Bowman ... announcers don't think Logano has a chance ... it's Larson's to lose .... here we go ... twolaps to go ... spin out on first curve ... caution ... this is getting tedious .. the Packers / Vikings game may be over before this race actually finishes ... ridiculous ..... now Larson, Bowman, Logano, Chastain .... four of the top five, Chevys; #3 currently, Logano, Ford ... here we go, overtime, three to go ... Larson, white flag ... Larson ... should have it ... Larson, Bowman, Logano, Chastain ... Larson wins.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 3rd quarter, 19 - 10.
Extending their lead in the 3rd quarter, now 22 - 10. The Vikings quickly come back, 22 - 17 with two minutes left in the 3rd quarter ... lots of football left .... that's how we'll start the 4th quarter, home team behind, 22 - 17; holy mackerel, Vikings smashed the Packers in the 4th quarter --- 39 -- 22 with 4 minute to go ... Vikings sent a message ... as a side note -- Tony Romo was not in the studio -- CBS put Tony Romo on indefinite leave ... put a fork in the Packers -- it's over ... Carson Wentz ...
Tonight: Dallas Cowboys against somebody.
Oh, that's right -- their long, long rival -- the New York Giants. Dallas had the ball first; 4 and out. Giants scored first. Literally walked down the field. Dallas' second possession -- a couple of first downs and then a punt. Seven minutes left in the third quarter: NYG walk in with a third touchdown. Dallas needs to score on their next possession or risk a blowout.
Dallas made the TD but the New York Giants come back again, march down the field and then simply walk in for another TD.
28 - 14, Giants favor, middle of the 4th quarter. For the umpteenth time, the NBC commentators reiterate how tired the Dallas Cowboys look. Eight more minutes in their home stadium for the Giants for an opening game win against Jerry's team. With a minute and a half left to play, the NY Giants are in victory formation. This was a huge, huge game for both teams. It's not often one sees a victory formation with almost two minutes left to play. The first time since 2009 that both the Jets and the Giants have won their season opener.
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Oil And The Market
Recession: that's next. WTI surges and Fed getting ready to raise rates. Trump staring down the "recession barrel."
WTI: $102.90, up almost 3% since the close on Friday; up almost $3 / bbl. The Fed: since the consumer won't be able to handle $5-gasoline and $8-diesel, let's raise the Fed rate. That will show them we're serious.
Under Joe Biden:
