CNBC
First hour, CNBC, Jim Cramer:
- numbers this number: marginally/incrementally improved
- JPow wants to see three months of data with numbers favorable for a cut
- Cramer and Liesman both see this as "month 1"
- Cramer: record "jobs story" simply keeps going
- market
- market, leaders YTD: AAPL, AMGN, WMT
- market, laggards YTD: Salesforce, DIS, MCD
- Trump verdict
- didn't affect market
- clears the calendar -- no more court hearings between now and November except for the sentencing hearing
- campaign begins in earnest
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Personal Investing
Person investing today: will add GLW to current position which was initiated yesterday. By rule. No recommendation. See disclaimers.
Updates
May 31, 2024: from my perspective, a projected 1.3% GDP for the 2Q24 is very, very close to turning negative.
A dropping GDP and the following graph should be very, very concerning:
Original Post
Steve Liesman, CNBC.
Fed's favorite data point: the PCE.
Expectations:
- 0.3%
- 0.2%
Future turning positive. Someone knows something.
Actual: relief, not euphoria. Meh.
- on target at 0.3%
- core, key: 0.2%
- PCE prices y/y: 2.7% vs 2.7%
Market surging.
Treasury yields down but inconsequential.
Market appears comfortable with one rate cut this year.
The only word Steve Liesman did not use: "Goldilocks."
Steve Liesman says the Fed is starting to be "a bit too orthodox."
Only real inflationary sector: housing and Fed has little control over that unless they want to "crash" the entire economy.
Rick Santelli (Mr Predictable)
- real spending down a tenth
- strength of the consumer: slowly deteriorating
- "the fix is in"
- "we're close"
- reality: we could look at a lot of numbers but bottom line is central banks around the world want to cut rates to keep the party going
- never going to end up at 2%
- his usual rant on government debt
Panel:
- two folks I've never seen; pretty low on the food chain
- first one: we're making a lot of progress; won't get to 2% until well into next year
- Fed should cut now, but will wait until September
- seems very, very disappointed in the Fed
- second one: no change prior to November
- expects "some" cuts but not until late in the year: that would make a cut in November and December, both after the election
After this: blah, blah, blah.
