As We Get Ready For Another Week -- After A Most Exciting Weekend -- Chaos Is Self-Organizing -- October 7, 2018 -- Everyone Stayed Home To Watch The End Of Carnival

Gasoline demand. Link here.

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In The Eye Of The Hurricane

"No-drama Obama" vs "Trump chaos." Link here.

Another journalist with no science background. Even a college freshman is aware of the fact that "chaos is self organizing." LOL. The most recent example: the chaotic US Senate was able to get organized enough to have a fairly historic vote.

Self-organization, also called (in the social sciences) spontaneous order, is a process where some form of overall order arises from local interactions between parts of an initially disordered system. ... Chaos theory discusses self-organization in terms of islands of predictability in a sea of chaotic unpredictability.

Personally, I will probably be diagnosed with PTSD before the end of President Trump's first term, but OMG, the successes (not OMG, but rather CNN in this case, I guess).

And now this, from CNBC who, it seems, cannot stop trying to talk the market down:

• President Trump's corporate tax cut and his business deregulation efforts are not a "sugar high," says Kevin Warsh
• most economists "never thought the economy could grow this fast," says Warsh, who had been on Trump's short-list for Fed chairman (I think President Trump has said the same thing)
• "At the end of this year, we may be saying the economy is the strongest since 1999," Warsh predicts

Kevin Warsh? Former Federal Reserve governor and on the short list to be the new Fed chairperson (Jerome Powell was selected instead). I would assume he's pretty smart and would know something about the economy.

This reminds me of the octogenarians at every retirement seminar who shout from the back of the room, "boring is good."

No, "boring is not good." Boring is ... well, boring.

Is it just me but does it seem that whenever President Trump has a press conference or a photo op with a foreign leader he is about the most laid-back guy at the event? It's the US mainstream press that's chaotic, out of control. The foreign press still seems civilized and civil.

By the way, did President Trump go golfing this weekend? I didn't see any media report on that.

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The Carnival Is Over

The Carnival is Over, The Seekers
Wow, so many memories.

Bonus Photograph Set From Vern Whitten -- October 7, 2018

Some weeks ago when Vern Whitten sent me his most recent set of photographs of North Dakota he also included a set of "Animals With Attitude" from his friend Mike Van Valkenburg.

Form Vern Whitten: these photos are from my photographer friend Mike Van Valkenburg. 

 

Animals with attitude:

http://www.vernwhittenphotography.net/mike

Here is his website:  https://mikevanphoto.com/. 

 

I'm sure both Vern Whitten and Mike Van Valkenburg would enjoy hearing from you. For Vern Whitten's photographs, click on the tag, "Whitten."

Mike Filloon Powder River Update -- October 7, 2018

Link here.

Archived.

Summary:

• EOG continues to see excellent results in Wyoming, with several big producers leading the way
• Arbalest 66 has produced 464,400 BO in the first 26 months of well life
• well costs are very low at $5.3 million for a 9,500-foot lateral when focusing on the Turner formation
• we think the play has significant upside given the good results and multiple intervals to de-risk

Also from this article:

EOG's current Turner well costs are $5.3 million for a 9,500-foot lateral.

WTI pricing is $70/bbl. The average EOG location in the PRB produces 133 KBO and 471 MMcf in the first year.

After reducing WTI for NRI (20%), differentials ($5) and cash costs ($10/bbl), oil revenues are $5.4 million.

This estimate does not include NGLs or natural gas.

Payback is reached in 10-11 months on average. EOG is showing how productive the PRB can be, and it is likely the play is highly undervalued. We think oil prices are headed higher, and that will make the play more attractive. Not only has it done well in Wyoming, we have addressed its success in the Permian and Super Hogs across other US plays.

A Conway Twitty sort of night.

Slow Hand, Conway Twitty

Mike Filloon Bakken Update -- October 7, 2018

Link here.

Archived.

Summary:

• COP's Anderson Ranch location produced 272 barrels of oil in the first 12 months of well life
• the move from sliding sleeves to cement casings in concert with broad volume increases in proppant continues to drive production improvements
• COP continues to push better production in the Bakken.  We expect this will drive production gains across all plays and provide better top-line numbers than are currently estimated
• US unconventional operators are currently undervalued amid higher oil prices and better well design

This is really, really cool. COP/BR's Anderson Ranch wells are tracked here. 

From Filloon:

Conoco has seen a relatively large jump in oil production per Bakken horizontal year over year.

We continue to see a jump in volumes of sand and fluids.

The improvement of 41 KBO and 63 MMcf in one year is quite good and is representative of its well design changes being implemented in a much more active manner.

A company like COP won't see the leveraged improvement of a focused, unconventional operator. That said, well design improvements will improve COP's results in the Bakken, Niobrara, Eagle Ford and Delaware.

The average increase in revenues per Bakken well is approximately $2MM. This is after we pull costs, logistics, NRI, etc.

It completed 83 North Dakota locations this year, providing a total of $170MM. This does not include its acreage in other major US plays. We continue to believe WTI is headed to $80/bbl and we are currently at the low end of the range.

Doomsday: US States, Page 2

This is the second page for doomsday, US states. 

Doomsday: states, page 1.

New Jersey: to borrow $10 billion just to pay current bills; well, technically, only $9.9 billion, Meltdown 2020, July 12, 2020;


California: from a $21 billion surplus to a $54 billion deficit. First state to borrow money from the federal government to pay for unemployment claims. Meltdown 2020. May 8, 2020.

New York: governor says the state is $13 billion in debt.

Illinois: revisited. February 18, 2020.

New York: dramatic drop in state tax revenue. February 4, 2019.


Connecticut: back in the news. October 7, 2018