Thursday, January 12, 2023

The Headline: OPEC-Only Production Rose By 120,000 BPD In December, 2022

But here's the bigger story: OPEC- still almost two million bpd below its target.

And remember: OPEC+ cut its collective production target by two million bpd in November

Some could add two + two and get four million bpd. 

Russian production: unchanged (and remember, Russia needs all the cash it can raise to fight the war)
Nigeria: rebounded to a several-month high -- which explained the headline number.

And despite needing all that money to fight a war:

At the end of December, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia could reduce its oil output by 500,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd in response to the oil price cap.

Let's see: two million + two million + one million = five million. 

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Sticking Its Neck Out

Link here.


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Dark Matter

Link here.

From their observations, astronomers widely predict that dark matter must comprise around 85% of all matter in the universe. So far, however, most theories about the nature of this mysterious source of mass have pinned their hopes on theoretical, as-yet undiscovered particles.
Professor Eugene Oks from the Physics Department of the Auburn University has proposed that a more natural explanation could come in the form of an uncharted ‘second flavour’ of the hydrogen atom.
With a reliable basis in theory, atomic experiments, and astronomical observations, his ideas hold the potential to provide long-awaited solutions to one of the most notorious mysteries in modern physics.

Containing just a single electron orbiting a single proton, the hydrogen atom is the simplest of all elements in the periodic table. Owing to the low number of inter-particle interactions taking place within these atoms, they have long been considered a reliable test bench for physicists to compare their theories with real experimental observations.
Yet despite their simplicity, the physical properties of hydrogen atoms still hold a number of unsolved mysteries. In their ground state – where their electrons have not been excited to higher energy levels – the atoms’ linear momenta (products of the mass and velocity of an object) are distributed over a range of values. At higher energies, this pattern displays an elongated ‘tail,’ whose shape follows a close relationship with the atoms’ momenta. For decades, however, physicists’ models of the shape of this tail didn’t match up with their observations.

Merkel's Legacy -- January 12, 2023

Link here.

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Drought In California

From The Los Angeles Times today:

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More

Global Energy: The 21st Century Is America's Century -- January 12, 2023

Themes: link here.
Themes: 2023.

The Over-Riding Themes

Global energy: the 21st century is America's century.

Medicine: it's all about CRISPR, mRNA

Information: it's all about semi-conductors, automation, robotics.

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The News

Road to New England: hits new milestone. 

Annualize The Last Six-Month CPI And See What You Get -- January 12, 2023

January 28, 2023, link here, and tracked here:

Inflation: again, a reminder, core inflation was down 0.1% over the past three months. 

Inflation: link here.

Oil: eleven best American oil stocks to buy now. From InsiderMonkey a couple of days ago. Link here. HES, VLO, HAL, PXD, MRO, DVN, COP, CVX, CHK, OXY, XOM.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Road to New England: hits new milestone. 

TSM: only stock I will be following today. 

In-N-Out: huge expansion. Moving east. Will set up "a" corporate hub in Tennessee. Franklin, TN:

Franklin is a city just south of Nashville, in Tennessee. A key site of the American Civil War, it’s home to 2 properties exploring the 1864 Battle of Franklin: Carter House and Carnton Plantation, which includes the McGavock Confederate Cemetery. The 1858 Lotz House contains a large collection of 19th-century furniture. Downtown’s Main Street is lined with galleries, antique shops and restored Victorian buildings. ― Google

Carnton And McGavock Confederate Cemetery. Wiki. 

What a butt. Link here. The link is to Axios, not FoxNews; speaks volumes. Not that he has any real "control," but he always comes on after the fact and says "they" don't know what caused the [most recent] problem, but "they" will investigate. By the time the investigation is over, there's a new supply disruption.

TSM -- January 12, 2023

Here it is:

  • exactly as expected
  • CPI: down 0.1%, exactly as expected;
  • 6.5: exactly as expected
    • high water 9.1% back in June
    •  core (y/y; excludes energy, food): up 5.7, exactly as expected
    • m/m: CPI up 0.3%; exactly as expected
  • Dow goes from "up 130 points" to "down 100 points."

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Original Post

The Dow: as CPI numbers released:

  • at 7:24, futures: Dow up 124 points, after being flat all night.
    • at 7:25: up 130 points.
    • at 7:32: down 100 points
    • at 7:35: now, as analysts start digesting these very good numbers, Dow back up 60 points
    • at 7:37: back up 80 points
  • analysts:
    • inflation decelerating
    • inflation will be higher for longer but Fed will live with it
    • a good report
    • wait for details: rent, services
    • Fed will look at this favorably
    • Fed will high rates twice more this year, up 25 bp each time;
    • market; wait and watch
    • Rick Santelli: market today -- should go much higher today; this was all the buzz yesterday -- that this could be a great day for the market

Jobs:

  • continuing claims: down 63K to 1.63 million
  • initial claims: down 1K to 205K

Enough of this, moving on. CNBC now turned off for the day. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

TSM: only one number to watch! Link here. Shares could surge today.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: link here.

The Far Side: link here. 

WTI: amazing. Up another $1.20; up 5.6%; trading at $78.61.

Natural gas: $3.810.

Friday, January 13, 2023:
36891, conf, Petroshale, Carson Federal 21-19A,
36177, conf, BR, George 2E MBH,
27883, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 21-6H,

Thursday, January 12, 2023:
38735, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-156-94-1819H-2,
37564, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12C-1-1HS,
27882, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 20-6H2,

RBN Energy: The 2023 outlook for Permian gas and oil markets. Archived.

You probably won’t be surprised to hear that we believe the Permian Basin is set for another year of crude oil and natural gas production growth. Everyone’s come to expect that from the Permian. What is new, though, is that the vast production area in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico has taken on some serious global significance over the past year — especially as an increasingly important energy supplier to Europe.
That emerging role is likely not only to support continued production growth in the Permian but also to shape how the basin’s infrastructure is built out through the rest of the 2020s. And we also know that infrastructure development is critical to the Permian’s ongoing success — in 2023, new gas pipeline takeaway capacity is needed pronto and it may not be long before new oil-pipeline capacity from the Permian to Corpus Christi is required too. In today's RBN blog, we provide this year’s outlook for Permian natural gas and oil markets.