ATT

April 9, 2022: merger is complete.

March 28, 2022: more details released, Deadline.

• T to spinoff WarnerMedia
• WarnerMedia to combine with Discovery
• ATT to issue a special dividend on April 5, 2022: 0.24 shares of Warner Bros Discovery for every share ATT
• ATT: two-way trading to begin April 4, shareholders getting option to buy or sell shares of ATT with / without WBD shares
• ATT quarterly dividend: 28 cents / ATT shares, part of the company's annual dividend of $1.11 after the spinoff closes
• unusually high number of individual investors, rather than institutions, owning its stock: ATT's dividend is a closely watched obligation on its balance sheet
• dividend payable May 2, 2022; record date, April 14, 2022
• in line with previous guidance
• exact date of closure not specified as of March 25, 2022

Taming A River -- The Red River -- North Dakota -- 1997, 2009, 2011 -- Vern Whitten Photos

Spring in North Dakota: the Red River Valley.

From 1997, Vern Whitten:

• medium format film camera
• ten "shots"; then re-load; over-and-over again;
• rolls of film
• Red RiverK from Wahpeton to the Canadian Border
• https://www.vernwhittenphotography.com/flo97

Twelve years later, 2009, and again in 2011, Fargo area, Vern Whitten:

• now shooting digital images
• hundreds of photos; then simply put in a new chip
• https://www.vernwhittenphotography.com/floodsafter09

Vern Whitten:

• www.vernwhittenphotography.com
• (701 261-7658

Photos available. Mr Whitten would love to hear from you.

Cushing, Midland, And The Keystone XL -- March 28, 2022

Re-posting. Not sure how many folks caught this. Not being reported by other oil analysts.

Oil:

• US oil exports surge, drawing crude away from Cushing; Midland oil headed to coast;
• so, what was supposed to "replenish" Cushing? Not mentioned.
• see below 

"Below":

From the blog, almost seven years ago to the day, link here:

So, if that's true, what is driving oil over $100? It's not the weakness of the dollar. The dollar rose slightly or remained flat, during the rise in the price of oil, so it's not the weakness of the dollar driving the price of oil. 

I can go through a laundry list of likely reasons (which I recently did) but I'll cut to the chase. I think it has to do with the drawdown at Cushing. The Keystone XL 2.0 South is draining Cushing; Keystone XL 2.0 North which was meant to replenish Cushing is not on-line, and probably never will be. Bakken oil should be replenishing Cushing via railroad and existing pipelines, but operators are getting better returns shipping Bakken oil to the east coast and the west coast.

And, it will long be forgotten, but it was President Biden who killed the Keystone XL on his first day in office. 

Notes From Overnight -- March 28, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

BRK-B: why it's hitting all-time highs. The Motley Fool.

Buybacks: US companies setting records. Link to Financial Times. 

Apple sales? Not so good. Link here. Shares fall in pre-market trading. Still above $170-support.

Apple TV+: wins "Best Picture" Oscar, 2022, 94th Academy Awards; overshadowed by "the slap"

Treasuries: five to 30-year yield curve inverts for first time since 2006. This will be the headline story today on CNBC. By 10:00 a.m. we will have moved on.

Energy transition: "The US and Europe are just now starting to acknowledge that the energy transition will take time [and lots and lots of money] -- ADNOC. Link here. 

• Who will get stuck with the bill? Auto manufacturers.
• EU: currently installing <2,000 public EV charging units each week;
  
• demand? 14,000 public EV charging units each week; 
• link here or go direct to spglobal
• estimated cost: Eur8 billion / year
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Oil:

• US oil exports surge, drawing crude away from Cushing; Midland oil headed to coast;
• so, what was supposed to "replenish" Cushing? Not mentioned.
• see below
  
• WTI: Shanghaied. Simply another buying opportunity.
• once-in-a-lifetime opportunity: Murphy Oil sees it as opportunity to cut debt.
• plans to ramp production 11% per quarter this year
• let's see: 100,000 bopd x 1.11 = 111,000; 123,210; 136,763; 151,807; = 52% for the year?
• 4Q21: 158,000 boepd; 87,000 bopd; at a 52% increase, y/y, should we see 132,240 bopd next year (2023)?
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

From the blog, almost seven years ago to the day, link here:

So, if that's true, what is driving oil over $100? It's not the weakness of the dollar. The dollar rose slightly or remained flat, during the rise in the price of oil, so it's not the weakness of the dollar driving the price of oil.

I can go through a laundry list of likely reasons (which I recently did) but I'll cut to the chase. I think it has to do with the drawdown at Cushing. The Keystone XL 2.0 South is draining Cushing; Keystone XL 2.0 North which was meant to replenish Cushing is not on-line, and probably never will be. Bakken oil should be replenishing Cushing via railroad and existing pipelines, but operators are getting better returns shipping Bakken oil to the east coast and the west coast.

Got coal?

Shanghaied: WTI From $114 To $108 -- March 29, 2022

$114 --> $108: Shanghaied. 

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$108.7	3/28/2022	03/28/2021	03/28/2020	03/28/2019	03/28/2018
Active Rigs	35	14	45	66	62

Monday, March 28, 2022: 47 for the month, 156 for the quarter, 156 for the year

• 38295, conf,  CLR, Rolf Federal 11-17HSL, Brooklyn, no production data,
• 37711, conf, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-9, Alkali Creek, very nice well;
• 36893, conf, Petroshale, Crockett Federal 1TFH, Bear Den, producing,

Sunday, March 27, 2022: 44 for the month, 153 for the quarter, 153 for the year

• 38296, conf, CLR, Rolf Federal 10-17H1, Brooklyn, no production data,
• 37706, conf, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-8, Manitou, nice well;
• 36894, conf, Petroshale, Boone Federal 1MBH, Bear Den, producing; albeit, not much;

Saturday, March 26, 2022: 41 for the month, 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year 

• 36889, conf, Petroshale, Clark Federal 2TFH, Bear Den, producing; albeit, not much;

Friday, March 25, 2022: 40 for the month, 149 for the quarter, 149 for the year

• 38297, drl, CLR, Rolf Federal 9-17H, Brooklyn, no production data,
• 36890, loc/A, Petroshale, Lewis Federal 2MBH, Bear Den, producing; albeit, not much;

RBN Energy: E&P CAPEX and production guidance, and why they aren't doing more, part 2. 

There’s a lot of confusion out there — both in the media and the general public — about how producers in the U.S. oil and gas industry plan their operations for the months ahead and the degree to which they could ratchet up their production to help alleviate the current global supply shortfall and help bring down high prices. It’s not as simple or immediate as some might imagine. There are many reasons why E&Ps are either reluctant or unable to quickly increase their crude oil and natural gas production. Capital budgets are up in 2022 by an average of 23% over 2021. That increase seems substantial, but about two-thirds (15%) results from oilfield service inflation. And there are other headwinds as well. In today’s RBN blog, we drill down into the numbers with a look at producers’ capex and production guidance for 2022, the sharp decline in drilled-but-uncompleted wells, the impact of inflation and other factors that weigh on E&Ps today.