Sunday Morning -- July 8, 2018 -- When I Get To Heaven

Part 2. Part 1 was here. Part 3 is here.

When I Get To Heaven, John Prine
From a reader: the shale gas revolution has just begun, from Forbes.

The shale gas revolution is turning ten years old and is apparently only just getting started.

A new report by the business information provider IHS Markit traces the remarkable rise of the shale gas in the United States over the past decade and projects that natural gas production will grow by another 60% over the next 20 years.

“To say that the ‘Shale Gale’. . . has been anything but a veritable revolution would be an understatement,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman, IHS Markit and co-author of the report. “It represents a dramatic and largely unanticipated turnaround that dramatically changed both markets and long-term thinking about energy.”

Remind me to send a note to Art Berman and Jane Nielson. And The New York Times. And not only that, the revolution is occurring in The New York Times' own backyard:

Shale gas has fundamentally altered the domestic energy landscape. The Northeast has replaced the Gulf Coast as the largest gas producing region in the United States. Pennsylvania and New York, which traditionally imported most of their energy, are becoming energy exporters.

New York? Are they fracking in New York?

Google "natural gas production New York state".

From 1996:

The twenty-five year period from 1970 to 1994 illustrates the rise and subsequent decline and aging of the natural gas industry in New York State. With reported natural gas production for 1970 at almost three billion cubic feet, New York State's gas industry was poised to expand in both drilling and production that culminated sixteen years later, in 1986, when natural gas production reached its pinnacle at more than 34.7 billion cubic feet and then started a slow decline.

For 2017:

For the 2017 calendar year, 764 well owners reported a total of 12,045 oil and gas wells. Oil production in New York decreased 3.3% from the previous year for a total of 214,828 barrels reported by purchasers. Total reported gas production was 11.4 billion cubic feet (bcf), a 16% decrease from 2016. Gas production was primarily driven by wells in the Medina formation (5.2 bcf). Significant 2017 production was also reported for the Trenton-Black River formation (3.2 bcf), Herkimer (0.8 bcf), and Queenston (1.1 bcf) formations.

1986: natural gas production in NY state "reached its pinnacle at more than 34.7 billion cubic feet and then started a slow decline ... fast forward to 2017, total reported gas production was 11.4 billion cubic feet (bcf), a 16% decrease from 2016.

I assume these formations produce natural gas without fracking. The NY state ban on fracking remains in effect. But look at this NPR story. Wow, what incredible hypocrisy.

From the EIA, note that New York state doesn't even meet production numbers to get on the chart:

So, some 11 billion cubic feet of natural gas coming out of New York state compared with 15 billion cubic feet coming out of Pennsylvania.

So, with 11 billion from NY state and 15 billion from Pennsylvania, why didn't New York state make the chart.

Holy c**p. Am I reading this correctly?

Go back to the data.

New York state, 2017: total production was 11.4 billion cubic feet for the entire year.

Pennsylvania: 15 billion cubic feet per day.

Please tell me I'm missing something. I must be misreading this. From Forbes again:

Shale gas has fundamentally altered the domestic energy landscape. The Northeast has replaced the Gulf Coast as the largest gas producing region in the United States. Pennsylvania and New York, which traditionally imported most of their energy, are becoming energy exporters.

Why is New York included in that sentence?

That linked NPR article suggests New York is a net importer of natural gas, but importing it from Pennsylvania.

Something tells me I'm going to be hugely embarrassed when a reader points out what I am missing and I'm an idiot. 

Oil? From official New York state data:

Oil production in New York decreased 3.3% from the previous year for a total of 214,828 barrels reported by purchasers.

214,828 bbls of oil produced in New York state in one year, sitting on top of huge reserves. North Dakota produces five times that amount in one day from four counties.

Now, The Update Regarding Those Two Slawson Dual Long Lateral Wells In Big Bend -- July 8, 2018

Okay, let's go back to this one.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. I used poetic license to tell part of the story. If I stepped on any toes, let me know and I will make it all "right." It should be noted that one can buy soft drinks at J Dub's in Williston.

Disclaimer: I can't stress enough that there might be factual and typographical errors in this post. If this is important to you, go to the source. Hearsay at J Dub's is probably not "the source," but I bet you can get some pretty good stories. 

I posted this graphic earlier as a stand-alone post with no narrative but said I would get back to it later.

I'm going to do this from memory. It would take too much time and effort to go back to get the details. So if this is wrong, and affects the story, let me know and I will correct it. As noted I used poetic license to tell part of the story. Don't take that part seriously.

It's just for fun.

The other night I was updating wells that were drilled in 2015.

I came across this completion report:

Wow, 81 stages! In two fracks: a 40-stage frack followed by a 41-stage frack. But then I remembered it was a Slawson well, and Slawson would never do anything so audacious as an 80+ stage frack. LOL. Nope, they did something more audacious.

Wow, the Bakken never ceases to amaze me.

So, when I saw that 81-stage frack done in two stages, it took me three seconds to take another look -- I think what jumped out at me was the fact that the target for the first frack was different than the target for the second frack.

At least one date in the geologist's drilling report was wrong (the "cease drilling date" was said to be before the spud date -- I'm pretty sure about that, but could be wrong). Other dates are probably correct, but I can't reconcile them. But, then, I can't reconcile a lot of things in the Bakken. See the sundry form below, and then compare the target/test date (circled in red) with the target/test date in the completion report above (also circled in red).

The dates may be correct, and I may be missing something but the dates don't matter for the story.

So, for #30412, Slawson drilled a typical long lateral into the upper bench of the Three Forks (TF1). MD was 10,771 feet (vertical before they went horizontal).

On a Sunday some months later, with April Fool's Day coming up, after a long night at J Dub's, the Lightning Federal site manager drives out to the pad, #30412, and suggests to the team, "hey, why not cut a window in the casing of the TF1 horizontal / kick-off point and drill the TF2?"

Nothing better to do, and something to impress the boss, that's exactly what they did. They cut a window in the TF1 casing at/near the kick-off point and drilled the TF2. MD was 10,793 feet, about 22 feet deeper.

That simply amazes me. The roughnecks drill down two miles deep into the earth and then cut a hole in the cement casing, and then hit another target, just 22 feet deeper. I don't know about you but for me that's as impressive as NASA landing a drone on an asteroid.

Maybe more impressive. After all, NASA doesn't need a permit or an environmental impact statement to land on an asteroid.

Some time later, the boss told the Lightning Federal site manager that he and the roughnecks were  probably just lucky.

The site manager replied, "Here, hold my drink." The site manager then had the roughnecks do the same thing 105 feet to the east (distance between surface holes).

This time, MD for TF1 was 10,880 feet and the MD for TF2 was 10,906 feet, a difference of 26 feet.

Production data for 30412, note the production jump after the frack:

NDIC File No: 30412     API No: 33-061-03486-00-00     CTB No: 230412 Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 4/15/2016     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: SWSE 24-152-93     Footages: 261 FSL 1361 FEL     Latitude: 47.964030     Longitude: -102.519260 Current Operator: SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC. Current Well Name: LIGHTNING FEDERAL 6-24-13TFH Elevation(s): 1982 KB   1958 GR   1958 GL     Total Depth: 20590     Field: BIG BEND Spud Date(s):  6/9/2015 Casing String(s):  9.625" 1909'   7" 10838'   Completion Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10793-20590     Comp: 4/15/2016     Status: AL     Date: 4/27/2017     Spacing: 2SEC Cumulative Production Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 363542     Cum MCF Gas: 332004     Cum Water: 312290 Production Test Data    IP Test Date: 4/16/2016     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 2684     IP MCF: 668     IP Water: 1600

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 5-2018 31 10043 10292 9259 6228 2092 2896 BAKKEN 4-2018 30 10947 10302 9895 18491 17166 0 BAKKEN 3-2018 31 13883 14442 11892 11244 9535 66 BAKKEN 2-2018 15 5667 5592 5197 5991 5133 165 BAKKEN 1-2018 31 12576 12586 11407 20466 18973 0 BAKKEN 12-2017 31 14107 14248 12693 19595 17848 91 BAKKEN 11-2017 30 14232 14041 13003 18977 17293 0 BAKKEN 10-2017 31 16351 16460 15060 17611 14870 817 BAKKEN 9-2017 30 16715 16717 15267 20543 18578 0 BAKKEN 8-2017 31 18842 18940 17248 22963 20760 0 BAKKEN 7-2017 31 23257 23066 19820 23452 20516 243 BAKKEN 6-2017 30 25509 25613 19760 26303 23364 0 BAKKEN 5-2017 31 27317 27806 23101 18163 15036 0 BAKKEN 4-2017 29 21006 20621 19255 10876 4312 4156 BAKKEN 3-2017 30 27637 26690 25506 14359 10948 3261 BAKKEN 2-2017 28 19876 20443 26165 10261 6238 3883 BAKKEN 1-2017 24 6561 6273 7010 5611 5491 0 BAKKEN 12-2016 1 0 66 0 6 1 0 BAKKEN 11-2016 5 3463 3224 2837 2268 2243 0 BAKKEN 10-2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 9-2016 4 1028 2156 507 703 683 0 BAKKEN 8-2016 31 21457 21186 11861 19004 18849 0 BAKKEN 7-2016 31 19752 19538 14390 17654 17499 0 BAKKEN 6-2016 30 14793 14456 10762 12192 12042 0 BAKKEN 5-2016 28 17188 17908 10395 9038 6134 2764 BAKKEN 4-2016 1 1335 0 0 5 0 0

The production profile for #30414 was similar and won't be re-posted here.

What about #30413, a middle Bakken well:

Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 5-2018 31 3998 4330 3477 2872 1087 1200 BAKKEN 4-2018 30 4560 3902 3715 6273 5637 0 BAKKEN 3-2018 31 4996 5413 4460 3886 2776 424 BAKKEN 2-2018 27 4535 4407 2719 5237 4400 208 BAKKEN 1-2018 25 5795 5812 4262 6192 5404 50 BAKKEN 12-2017 31 6882 6700 4761 7432 6507 38 BAKKEN 11-2017 26 6009 6074 4267 6399 5626 0 BAKKEN 10-2017 31 10255 10389 5653 9901 8005 637 BAKKEN 9-2017 22 5300 5379 3185 4880 4185 8 BAKKEN 8-2017 29 6845 6868 3811 6811 5928 0 BAKKEN 7-2017 30 5495 5315 4498 5184 4373 67 BAKKEN 6-2017 30 6097 6238 7414 6117 5304 0 BAKKEN 5-2017 30 12953 13495 13587 12072 10523 0 BAKKEN 4-2017 8 2796 2595 3373 2680 2332 0 BAKKEN 3-2017 31 9311 9131 10417 8595 8440 0 BAKKEN 2-2017 23 6804 6127 9724 4074 3022 937 BAKKEN 1-2017 1 17 0 0 10 0 5 BAKKEN 12-2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 11-2016 2 549 776 23 319 309 0 BAKKEN 10-2016 19 13531 13782 8573 8299 5969 2235 BAKKEN 9-2016 4 3596 4442 1565 2108 2060 28 BAKKEN 8-2016 31 22894 22336 11861 18117 17962 0 BAKKEN 7-2016 31 19640 19411 14390 16955 16800 0 BAKKEN 6-2016 30 24313 24078 10952 15176 15026 0 BAKKEN 5-2016 29 15172 16261 5401 9081 6866 2070 BAKKEN 4-2016 1 1704 0 124 5 0 0

We might as well finish this by looking at #18827, about 1,530 feet to the west of #30412:

• 18287, 911, Slawson, Skybolt 1-24H, t1/10; cum 305K 5/18;

Part of the production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	4347	4497	1180	3370	1042	1706
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	3394	3117	875	2970	2459	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	3550	3999	1039	3048	2413	105
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	3103	2921	861	2733	2181	73
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	3660	3708	909	3102	2562	3
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	3336	2693	784	2897	2221	169
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	3322	3409	800	2766	2227	33
BAKKEN	10-2017	19	2450	2687	752	3230	1317	1557
BAKKEN	9-2017	21	1848	1916	696	2499	1345	845
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	4100	4388	1653	5468	3194	1678
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	4928	5063	2009	6600	3663	2253
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	4129	4112	2207	5510	3145	1765
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	3388	3136	1886	4502	2511	1473
BAKKEN	4-2017	12	1471	1917	743	1929	1048	664
BAKKEN	3-2017	22	1897	1778	1366	2480	1279	1091
BAKKEN	2-2017	26	1521	1188	1715	1989	868	991
BAKKEN	1-2017	26	2185	1770	3518	1833	1703	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	8	88	0	50	114	22	52
BAKKEN	9-2016	25	3047	3675	1061	2347	2132	90
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	5798	5659	1508	4358	4024	179
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	9624	9318	2287	7044	6873	16
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	4986	5523	1530	3757	3518	89
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	5982	5345	1925	8669	4291	4223
BAKKEN	4-2016	27	3670	4049	1166	5316	2894	2287
BAKKEN	3-2016	22	4122	3662	1192	3259	3149	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	1	464	830	181	503	498	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	26	11010	10578	5040	8502	7667	705
BAKKEN	11-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	2	949	1007	0	1368	0	1358
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	1	19	0	0	31	0	26
BAKKEN	3-2015	3	38	473	2	56	12	29
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	524	366	125	559	419	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	1410	1393	416	2115	1622	338
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	1389	1153	478	1635	1480	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	1351	1407	412	2022	1582	290
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	1398	1415	424	2207	2052	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	1400	1562	454	2134	1946	38
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	1464	1318	523	2389	2234	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	1492	1786	375	2350	2195	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	1488	1211	497	2272	2122	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	1535	1955	474	2294	2139

When looking at the production data, be sure to note that the older middle Bakken well was a short lateral (one mile long) whereas the Three Forks wells were long laterals.

Look at the IPs for the long lateral TF wells compared to the old middle Bakken well and the newer long lateral middle Bakken well:

• 18287, 911, Slawson, Skybolt 1-24H, middle Bakken, short lateral, t1/10; cum 305K 5/18;
• 30412, 2,684, Slawson, Lightning Federal 6-24-13TFH, t4/16; cum 364K 5/18;
• 30413, 1,008, Slawson, Lightning Federal 2-24-13H, t4/16; cum 204K 5/18;
  
• 314014, 1,622, Slawson, Lightning Federal 7-24-13TFH, t4/16; cum 338K 5/18; 

Finally, look at the monthly production for #30414, drilled back in 4/16 -- more than two years ago:

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	10755	11126	9259	10245	3633	5301
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	11691	10940	9895	13979	12538	34
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	15347	15905	11892	13471	6219	5449
BAKKEN	2-2018	15	5639	5494	4797	6668	5685	293
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	14816	14594	11360	23946	22207	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	16026	15820	12693	21471	19403	202
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	17313	18051	13003	18624	16604	2
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	20058	19966	15060	18883	14381

Sunday Morning -- July 8, 2018 -- Lonesome Friends Of Science Say, This World Will End Most Any Day

Part 1: done. Part two is here. Part 3 is here.

I don't live here anyway,
I live down deep inside my head,
where long ago I made my bed
I get my mail in  ...

I was sure this song was a Todd Snider song. Wrong:

Lonesome Friends of Science, John Prince

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Japanese Internment Camps

An executive order.

Executive Order 9066.

FDR.

Yup. Don't even get me started.

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The Dallas Morning News -- Sunday Edition

Last weekend the Sunday paper cost $3.00.

Today, I was surprised when the cashier charged me $3.79.

Yup, that's the "new" price for the Sunday paper. Actually, I don't know when the price was raised but it was very, very recently. I've "always" paid $3.00 for the paper (actually I don't read it any more; I quit reading it a couple of years ago, I suppose; I buy it for my wife).

$3.79.

79 cents/$3.00 = a 26% increase in price. And I don't think this is because of Trump's trade war.

I think this is a bad, bad omen for the Dallas paper.

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NASCAR Last Night

Actually, it began Friday night with the Infinity Race. An incredibly good race. Maybe more on that later for the archives. I mentioned that in passing last night to our granddaughters. They saw the race and told me all about it! Can you believe that. Olivia actually knew that Kyle Larson won and that he won be 500ths of a second. And that the car that actually beat him to the finish line was disqualified because the driver drove the left tires over the double-yellow line -- off-sides, and loses the win. Rules are rules, but one more reason NASCAR will lose fans.

I might come back to this: my mother-in-law was Japanese; married at 18 years of age at the end of WWII; came to the US about two years later. We have Japanese friends in southern California. Some of them talk of internment during WWII here in the US. Kyle Larson's mother is Japanese. He mentioned that his mother talked about those internment camps. I don't know the story. If accurate, she would have been a toddler.

Last night's race. Incredible. I missed most of it due to a family birthday celebration, but we got home to see the last seven laps and then overtime.

Were there three big crashes in the last seven laps and then overtime? I think so. One huge crash with just a feet to go where the race would have been considered an "official" race, but they didn't quite make it. Had to have another re-start. Final run out of the fourth turn, out of nowhere, Eric Jones flies ahead of Martin Truex, Jr, and wins. First ever NASCAR win for Eric Jones, and at the biggest NASCAR venue -- Daytona. Wow.

I'm kicking myself. See this post from November 4, 2017 --

Wow, what are the odds? Earlier today I had the opportunity to have my picture taken in front of the #20 car, driven by Eric Jones, in the Xfinity Series, but I did not have my camera, so the photo never got taken. I did get a free beer koozie, but no photo in front of the car. and now, wow ... Eric Jones, #20, wins the first stage of the race out at the Texas Motor Speedway tonight.  If he wins the final stage, I'm going to be really, really miffed.[Update: I'm really miffed.]

Note: one of Eric's sponsors back in 2017 was "Reser's." Last night, Reser's was still one of his sponsors. I actually now buy Reser's potato salad once in awhile.

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Starbucks

I've never seen this Starbucks parking lot so empty. Not one car. Except for three cars in the back that belong to the employees, I assume. 

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Sorry for the delay in blogging. I will start momentarily.

Items that will be discussed.

The price of the Dallas Morning News.

Starbucks this morning.

NASCAR last night.

The Slawson wells that I said I would update.

Wells coming off the confidential list this next week.

But I probably won't get to this until another thirty minutes or so.

Week 27: July 1, 2018 -- July 7, 2018

Operations
Random look at two Slawson dual long lateral wells in Big Bend 
Random update of a BR Midnight Run well with jump in production
Random update of a Petro-Hunt Charlson USA well with jump in production
Comparison of middle Bakken well paired with a neighboring Three Forks well 
Carson Peak and Morris well update
CLR wants to put 23 wells on one drilling unit in Haystack Butte
 
Pipeline
DAPL: one year later

Miscellaneous
COP temporarily exits the Permian; will focus on the Eagle Ford and the Bakken
COP returning to the Bakken
Demand for trucks across the USA: soaring 
WTI flirted with $75 this week before dropping back
US natural gas production hits all time high in April, 2018
Produced water problem in the Permian

Commentary
Saudi Arabia, Part 2
Saudi Arabia, Part 1

Atmospheric CO2 -- Breaches 410 PPM -- FWIW -- July 7, 2018

California heat: southern California sets all-time heat record.

Among the places that set all-time records were Van Nuys Airport (117 degrees), Burbank Airport (114), UCLA (111), Santa Ana (114) and Ramona (115), according to the National Weather Service. Riverside tied its all-time high temperature of 118.

Downtown Los Angeles hit a new high for the day, at 108. Long Beach Airport hit 108 and Woodland Hills, 118. B

ut not to worry: the grid is holding. More than enough electricity.

Can't say as much for Massachusetts.

Massachusetts grid: Massachusetts looking for electricity from Canada -- the problem? Their northern neighbors -- US states of Maine, New Hampshire -- don't want the high voltage lines going through their states.

 *************************************

Atmospheric CO2 -- FWIW

Was "411" in May, 2018, but concentration is season. 

Keeling curve, Mauna Loa, July 5, 2018, July's reading:

CO2 now, July 5, 2018, for June:

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The Book Page

Years ago I was in a "Graham Greene" phase. I read his "authorized" biography. I read The Portable Graham Greene. I'm back in my "Graham Greene" phase again have just read The Road Not Taken, a biography of Edward Lansdale.

Now I'm reading The Quiet American by Greened.

Place names mentioned in the book led me to this link and this link, regarding the two movies made based on the book (1958, 2002).