The Market And Energy Page, T+9 -- January 30, 2018

Market. I am thrilled to see the market "down" today. I was starting to get concerned that folks were blindly moving the market up. Hopefully we are back to a period of volatility. It reassures me that folks are paying attention. It also provides buying opportunities. Also, I've never complained about buying inexpensive shares with automatic reinvested dividends.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship-related decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

A political note: this is the first time in eight years that we will hear a non-Democratic president deliver a SOTU address. In addition, it's been decades since a Reagan-SOTU address. My hunch is that this will be one of most-watched presidential addresses in history. Could be wrong; there will be a lot of effort to encourage folks to not watch the address. Me? I have no plans to watch the address. I quit watching the SOTU address sometime during the Bush-Obama era.

Market-SOTU: the timing for the market dropping could not come at a better time for Trump. If the market recovers tomorrow, it's going to be hard not to connect the market recovery to Trump.

ExxonMobil: from SeekingAlpha:

• Exxon Mobil says it plans to triple total daily production to more than 600K boe by 2025 from its operations in the Permian Basin in west Texas and New Mexico, as it attempts to fill in some details from yesterday's pledge to invest $50B in the U.S. over the next five years [to put that 600K boepd in perspective, North Dakota is producing 1.5 million boepd
• XOM - which says it has doubled its footage drilled per day on horizontal wells in the Permian Basin since early 2014 and reduced per-foot drilling costs by ~70% - expects to increase the horizontal rig count in the Permian by a further 65% over the next several years
• XOM says it plans to invest $2B to expand the recently acquired Wink crude oil terminal and add key infrastructure upgrades that will efficiently move production from the Delaware, Central and Midland basins in the Permian to its operations and other market destinations in the Gulf Coast region

ExxonMobil: huge bonuses reported by glassdoor.

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Notes To The Granddaughters

I always get a kick out of the kids at Tutor Time and their Spanish lessons once or twice a week. These students are in the 3-year-old room and don't move up until they've had their fourth birthday. Sophia, on the ride into Tutor Time this morning, said she was looking forward to her birthday. It's still more than five months away.

Random Update Of An XTO Kaye Federal Well In Lost Bridge -- January 30, 2018

Back on August 28, 2017, this memo to self: check #19960, #18189 at end of 2017.

• 31199, 1,838, XTO, Kaye Federal 13X-3H, Lost Bridge, t5/61 (sic, probably 6/17); cum 56K 9/17; (#19960, #18189)

Checking #18189: still off-line.

However, look at this:

• 19960, 1,666, XTO, Kaye 43X-4, API 33-025-01222; Lost Bridge, t12/11; cum 502K 11/17; placed on rod pump in late 2016; but no FracFocus data suggesting a re-frack and nothing in the NDIC file report suggesting a re-frack.

Recent production data (note flaring, and water):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	16689	15890	9530	3081	2841	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	7	1076	1030	808	1033	895	115
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	65	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	6	165	1063	56	355	348	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	6937	7096	2248	12611	7417	4913
BAKKEN	2-2017	6	1087	734	223	1998	1951	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	6274	6337	2104	10890	10601	0

Random Update Of An EOG Clarks Creek Well -- January 30, 2018

This page will not be updated. The EOG Clarks Creek wells are tracked elsewhere. A graphic of this area is at this post.

The well:

• 20602, 670, EOG, Clarks Creek 15-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t7/12; cum 480K 11/17;

Recent production. There is no evidence at FracFocus or in the NDIC file report that this well has been re-fracked. Note the jump in production in August, 2017.

Recent monthly production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	11-2017	30	4837	4845	2107	8950	7296	962
SANISH	10-2017	31	5651	5556	2622	9197	4941	3546
SANISH	9-2017	30	6060	6103	2710	9050	5080	3280
SANISH	8-2017	31	13364	13368	7554	20272	42	19515
SANISH	7-2017	2	1075	997	938	1139	0	1108
SANISH	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2017	5	494	484	97	1322	1209	5
SANISH	4-2017	30	3014	3024	696	8219	7451	76
SANISH	3-2017	31	3098	3102	764	8903	8158	31
SANISH	2-2017	28	3317	3337	798	9136	8235	255
SANISH	1-2017	31	4134	4171	919	10945	9162	1084

Random Update Of Another High-Intensity CLR Frack -- January 30, 2018

 Updates

January 31, 2018: see first comment --

These Hereford wells are certainly interesting... after looking this well up in the well files category in premium however, It looks like this well starts in sec. 20... It goes horizontally almost a half mile in section 20, the goes up through sections 17, 8, and ends up on the north end of section 5... so 3 full miles plus almost 1/2 mile in section 20, so a very long horizontal.

Still impressive, but makes more sense when you divide the stages, sand, etc. by the longer length. It has to do with Access point (section 20) and Lake Sakakewea (just north of section 20) so an unusual setup because of the lake.

Original Post

 This production data at this page will not be updated. The well:

• 32355, 1,217, CLR, Hereford Federal 6-20H1, Elm Tree, Three Forks 1, 61 stages; 15.5 million lbs, mesh, large, small; t8/17; cum 111K 11/17;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	31373	31420	17783	64354	56827	7385
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	28162	28034	16649	51373	49779	1481
BAKKEN	9-2017	28	22742	22829	16333	44843	38666	6073
BAKKEN	8-2017	22	27555	27362	19442	41612	38498	2996
BAKKEN	7-2017	1	711	711	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The CLR Hereford Federal wells are tracked here.



Quote for the day:

What, then, is the character that actually marks the American -- that is, in chief? ... It is, in brief ... social aspiration ... The American is a pusher. His eyes are ever fixed upon some round of the ladder that is just beyond his reach, and all his secret ambition, all his extraordinary energies, group themselves about the yearning to grasp it. -- H. L. Mencken, 1920, from The Man Who Made The Movies: The Meteoric Rise and Tragic Fall of William Fox, Vanda Krefft, c. 2017, p. 224.

Chinese Company To "Build" Solar Panels In The US -- January 30, 2018

MAGA: one week after President Trump announces tariffs on solar panels, a Chinese company says it will build a manufacturing plant in the United States, bringing back jobs to America. 

The company tucked news of its U.S. manufacturing plans into an announcement about an agreement to supply an unnamed U.S. customer with 1.75 gigawatts of solar panels over about three years.

Comment: regarding the solar panel story, one individual commented:

More evidence of the near Pavlovian response the very mention of President Trump provokes across the aisle. Some of his supporters appear to see this news as evidence of his tariff policy working, though common sense would suggest that such a huge investment could not possibly be cleared within a week. The project has been on the anvil for some time as the link below shows.

Likewise, his critics seem to blithely ignore the obvious inference that setting up of a manufacturing plant like this indicates rising investor confidence in the American economy and manufacturing. I am not an enthusiastic supporter of Chinese companies but to a considerable extent, this is a positive for America.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/01/19/jinkosolar-negotiating-with-jacksonville-florida-to-set-up-a-factory/

Davos? Amazon, Berkshire, JPM partner on healthcare for less expensive employee healthcare. Shares of US healthcare companies -- from insurance to prescription drugs -- dropping this morning, helping lead a sell-off in the stock market. The other big of news: the bond market. And the stronger dollar leading to drop in the price of oil.

Reset: Shares of US healthcare companies -- from insurance to prescription drugs -- dropping this morning, helping lead a sell-off in the stock market. The other big of news: the bond market. And the stronger dollar leading to drop in the price of oil. But I repeat myself.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship-related decision(s) based on what you read here or think you may have read here or what your best friend says she read here.

Iraq rising: in the news today --

• Iraq will comply with OPEC quota-deal despite oil export capacity rise; Baghdad is working hard to increase its oil export capacity -- no doubt preparing for the day the deal ends
• Iraq to build an oil refinery at the port of Fao on the Gulf with the help of Chinese firms; plans three (3) others

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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.03↓	1/30/2018	01/30/2017	01/30/2016	01/30/2015	01/30/2014
Active Rigs	57	38	45	146	190

RBN Energy: Canadian producers' battle for US gas markets.

Canadian natural gas production has rebounded to the highest level in 10 years. At the same time, Canadian producers are facing tremendous headwinds. On the upside, regional gas demand from the Alberta oil sands is increasing too. But competition for market share in the U.S.  — which currently takes about one-third of Canadian gas production —  is ever-intensifying as U.S. shale gas production is itself at record highs and expected to continue growing.

On the whole, net gas flows to the U.S. from Canada thus far have remained relatively steady in recent years, apart from fluctuations due to weather-driven demand. But the breakdown of those flows by U.S. region has shifted dramatically and will continue to evolve as Appalachia takeaway capacity additions allow Marcellus/Utica shale gas production to further expand market share in the Northeast and other U.S. regions.

Today, we begin a series looking at what’s happening with gas flows across the U.S.-Canadian border and factors that will influence Canada’s share of the U.S. gas market over the next several years.