Is This All There Is, Mr Trump? -- March 26, 2017

GDP Now:

Latest forecast: 1.0 percent —

March 24, 2017:  The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.0 percent on March 24, up from 0.9 percent on March 16.

The forecast for first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 7.3 percent to 7.8 percent after this morning's durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth increased from –0.87 percentage points to –0.77 percentage points after last Friday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board.

Is "pathetic" spelled with two "e's" or just one?

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The Peggy Lee Page

See this link to North Dakota -- Peggy Lee (from a reader).  What a great country!

Is That All There Is? Peggy Lee

Saudi Is Not The Only One Squirming -- March 26, 2017

Saudi Isn't The Only One Squirming

Norway. From Oilprice.com. 

Norway:

• 2017: forecast: 1.60 million bopd
• 2016: 1.62 million bopd
• 2015: 1.57 million bopd
• 2013: 1.46 million bopd
• 2001: production peaked -- 3.12 million bopd

Great graphics at the site. Norway's production reminds me a lot of Mexico, but underlying reasons are considerably different.

XOM: someone likes it at $78 / share -- well below its recent trading range.  XOM is going to end up being an "accidental high dividend payer."

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Algore Storm

Massive blizzard forces cancellation of Iceland soccer game.

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Word For The Day

In another time and place I most likely would have been transhumance:

Transhumance is a type of nomadism or pastoralism, a seasonal movement of people with their livestock between fixed summer and winter pastures. In montane regions (vertical transhumance), it implies movement between higher pastures in summer and lower valleys in winter.

LGBTTH, I suppose. Or BLT, bisexual transhumance.

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Atmospheric CO2

From CO2Now:

A year ago, February, 2016: 404.16 ppm. We're fighting a losing battle against Mother Nature.

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Boogie, Woogie All Night Long

Yes Sir, I Can Boogie, Baccara

Whiting Reports Another Great Rolla Federal Well -- March 26, 2017

Monday, March 27, 2017

• 31962, SI/NC, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19E2, Lost Bridge, no production data,
• 31963, SI/NC, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19AXB, Lost Bridge, no production data,
• 32479, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXB, Bear Creek, no production data,

Sunday, March 26, 2017

• 31705, 2,079, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-2TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 7 million lbs, t10/16; cum 125K 1/17;
• 31961, SI/NC, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19A, Lost Bridge, no production data,
• 32480, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34E, Bear Creek, no production data,

Saturday, March 25, 2017

• 32423, 320, Petro Harvester, FLX1 22-15 163-91B, Flaxton, a Madison well, 19 stages (18 successful), 1.9 million lbs, t1/17; cum 9K 1/17;
• 32481, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34A, Bear Creek, no production data,
• 32985, 1,025, Enerplus, Desert Rose 149-92-35A-04H TF, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum --

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32423, see above, Petro Harvester, FLX1 22-15 163-91B, Flaxton:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2017	7934	10112
12-2016	387	0

31705, see above, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-2TFH, Twin Valley:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2017	27385	68016
12-2016	30917	67724
11-2016	36346	86289
10-2016	26288	56199
9-2016	4135	7989

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Active rigs:

	3/26/2017	03/26/2016	03/26/2015	03/26/2014	03/26/2013
Active Rigs	49	32	99	198	186

Scott Adams: Trump and healthcare. This is so incredibly cool. I wrote my daily notes dated March 26, 2017, and March 27, 2017, well before I read Scott Adams' note. Very, very interesting.

Back to the Bakken: the Elidah oil field might be telling us something. I will spend some time on updating that field today. If I don't get interrupted. The production data has been updated, but my thoughts on the Elidah oil field are yet to come. Two wells of interest in the Elidah oil field: Nordeng; and, Sivertson Rush.

Random thought: if we don't see DAPL oil flowing this week, methinks there may be a) issues downstream (Iowa?); and/or b) continued domestic terrorism in the Dakotas.

Boomtown population, from The Williston Herald, data points:

• current: 34,337
• 65% higher than 2010
• 3% drop between 2015 and 2016
• Williams County: rose 53% between 2010 and 2016
• McKenzie County: almost doubled between 2010 and 2016 (up 98%)
• births, at Williston's St Alexius Health
• 2016: 843
• 2015: 883
• 2014: 804
• 2013: 750 
• 2012: 600 (estimate)
• 2011: 543
• 2010: 478
• Williston Public School District 1:
• 2009 - 2010: 2,275 students; forced to reopen McVay Elementary; previously closed due to low enrollment
• 2016: 3,780 students; new $70 million high school
• superintendent says a new elementary school will be needed
• 2016: New Public School District 8 added an additional 51 kindergarteners

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North Dakota Change In Number Of Wells By Field, Month-Over-Month -- December, 2016 -- January, 2017

This is one of several spreadsheets on Bakken production data from January, 2017.

• Spreadsheet 1: oil fields ranked by change in number of active wells reported for the month by field.
• Spreadsheet 2: oil fields ranked by change in oil production for the entire field.
• Spreadsheet 3: oil fields ranked by total production.
• Spreadsheet 4: oil fields ranked by average well production.

Disclaimer: in a long spreadsheet like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. I did not double-check all entries. This is for my own use. Do not quote me on any of this. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

Ranking of oil fields in the Williston Basin based on percentage change of producing wells in that particular field, month-over-month (last column).

For example, in Elm Tree, the number of wells increased by 37.5% month-over-month, going from 32 wells to 44 wells. 

Field	Dec 2016 Prod	Dec Wells	Dec Oil / Well / Month	Percent Change Nov-to-Dec	Jan 2017 Prod	Jan Wells	Jan Oil / Well / Month	Percent Change Dec-to-Jan	Change in Number of Wells Month-Over-Month
Elm Tree	138,705	32	4,335	26.24%	223,777	44	5,086	61.33%	37.50%
Twin Valley	150,060	16	9,379	-11.69%	186,614	21	8,886	24.36%	31.25%
Sand Creek	175,817	85	2,068	-12.85%	350,297	93	3,767	99.24%	9.41%
Bell	158,896	67	2,372	-1.04%	213,471	71	3,007	34.35%	5.97%
Camel Butte	78,734	34	2,316	-27.61%	88,307	36	2,453	12.16%	5.88%
Siverston	615,088	240	2,563	-6.62%	809,673	252	3,213	31.64%	5.00%
East Fork	372,579	116	3,212	4.67%	452,386	119	3,802	21.42%	2.59%
Mandaree	217,514	84	2,589	-14.77%	268,244	86	3,119	23.32%	2.38%
Grail	665,775	178	3,740	-6.75%	720,811	182	3,961	8.27%	2.25%
McGregory Buttes	348,257	95	3,666	3.48%	424,960	97	4,381	22.02%	2.11%
Pembroke	62,834	52	1,208	-17.40%	61,661	53	1,163	-1.87%	1.92%
Alger	492,727	318	1,549	-16.03%	574,441	324	1,773	16.58%	1.89%
Heart Butte	419,950	180	2,333	-15.87%	474,971	183	2,595	13.10%	1.67%
Blue Buttes	584,941	150	3,900	-9.46%	741,587	152	4,879	26.78%	1.33%
Banks	562,445	191	2,945	-23.06%	531,011	193	2,751	-5.59%	1.05%
Parshall	1,344,661	464	2,898	0.43%	1,306,143	465	2,809	-2.86%	0.22%
Sanish	1,223,338	601	2,036	1.10%	1,189,444	602	1,976	-2.77%	0.17%