Sunday, December 18, 2016

Offshore Wind Project Comes On-Line, 60% More Than EIA Estimate; 10X Cost Of New NG Plant; Definition Of Insanity: NYC To Repeat Science Project; Obama Legacy -- December 18, 2016

Updates

Later, 3:15 p.m. Central Time: from another reader, quoting other source(s). There were a couple of "justifications" for this boondoggle:
  • bragging rights -- very, very expensive bragging rights
  • huge payoff for owners down the road -- maybe soon with tax credits, investors
  • Obama's legacy
Form the Block Island Times, bragging rights:
... an undersea electric transmission cable linking Block Island to the mainland is now a reality. On Thursday, June 23, National Grid landed its 30-megawatt sea-to-shore cable at the Fred Benson Town Beach to make the connection. National Grid then spliced its $107 million sea-to-shore cable with the terrestrial cable on Tuesday, June 28 at 5 p.m.
The reader's comments with slight editing:
The $290 million 30 MW wind farm has a $107 million "interconnect" cable tied into the "national" grid.
None of this was done to provide power to the "national" grid.
The cable is for the 75% of the time, more or less, that the wind speed is "incorrect."
Justification for this boondoggle was as a pilot project for a $multi-billion follow-up wind farm and to "displace the diesel generators" in current use supplying the 5-megawatt load.
A $107 million cable/substation to connect to a 25 megawatt peak capacity, intermittent and non-dispatchable source?
No one can be that stupid to do this again ... hopefully America's first and last offshore wind farm boondoggle.
Later, 12:25 p.m. Central Time: my mistake. The Block Island off-shore wind farm provides electricity to the state's electric grid; it was not built to supply electricity specifically to the island. For now, I will leave up the original post but later will correct it. From a reader regarding Deepwater Wind (DW Wind):
  • power goes to mainland, to local utility
  • power to Block Island originates from mainland-base utility and transmitted via new cable (NOT included in cost projections for DW Wind)
  • built in, incremental rate increae for DW Wind owners that, decades on, guarantees about 50 cents/KWh fee ... five times PA residential rate
  • current, long time Block Island power sourced by aged diesel generators. They wanted long term, reliable electric. Costs of DW project disbursed throughout state
Later, 10:57 a.m. Central Time: My fingers were frozen, and I accidentally clicked on "delete" rather than "publish" and once deleted, unable to recover. Sorry about that. A reader noted, see comments:
Block Island is no getaway for the elite; it's a place to get drunk on a summer weekend.  
That explains the decision for the wind towers, I guess.

Original Post
 
A big "thank you" to a reader spotting this one. From IER, December 16, 2016, a most expensive offshore wind farm becomes operational. Data points (these are my original data points; some are in error, see updates above):
  • off the coast of Rhode Island
  • Block Island Wind Farm
  • 30 MW facility -- repeat, a 30MW facility
  • five large offshore turbines; GE Renewable Energy; operated by Deepwater Wind
  • to supply energy to 1,000 full-time residents of Block Island
  • years and year of state / federal / town hall meetings / yada, yada, yada
  • $300 million 
  • $10,000/kw
  • 10 times more than the cost of a new natural gas combined cycle unit
  • 58% more costly than what the EIA expects a first-of-a-kind offshore wind unit to cost
The definition of insanity:
  • Long Island, NY, to do the same thing
Thoughts:
  • $300 million / 1,000 residents =  $300,000 / resident.
  • What was the source of their electricity prior to the wind towers?
  • Do the wind towers supply all electricity? Of course not. Back-up is still needed for when the wind is not blowing or blowing too fast. 
  • Does anybody even think about these things?
    There was already some source for electricity for theses 1,000 residents, so wind was not a last-ditch option.
Based on the wiki entry, Block Island looks like a getaway for the elites and thus explains the largess and boondoggle:
The Nature Conservancy added Block Island to its list of "The Last Great Places"; the list consists of twelve sites in the Western Hemisphere. About 40 percent of the island is set aside for conservation.
Presidents Bill Clinton, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and Ulysses S. Grant have visited Block Island.
Other famous visitors include Amelia Earhart and Charles Lindbergh, who each made separate trips to the island in 1929.
Block Island is coextensive with the town of New Shoreham. The island is a popular summer tourist destination and is known for its bicycling, hiking, sailing, fishing, and beaches.
The island hosts two historic lighthouses: Block Island North Light, on the northern tip of the island, and Block Island Southeast Light, on the southeastern side. Much of the northwestern tip of the island is an undeveloped natural area and resting stop for birds along the Atlantic Flyway.
Every summer the island hosts Block Island Race Week, a competitive, week-long sailboat race. On odd years, the event is held by the Storm Trysail Club, and on even years by the Block Island Race Week. Yachts compete in various classes, sailing courses in Block Island Sound and circumnavigating the island.
No wonder Michelle (Obama) has lost all hope for the US. 

Bismarck Public Schools Face Growing Pains --- December 18, 2016

Link here. Data points:
  • the three Bismarck middle schools are spilling over with students
  • by 2021 - 2022: Bismarck public schools will gain almost 2,000 students; 740 at the middle schools alone
  • each middle school has reached or will soon reach capacity
Comments:
  • middle school-aged students: 10 - 13 years of age
  • this is 2016: what happened 10 - 13 years ago in North Dakota
  • 2003 to 2006: that's interesting: that's before the Bakken boom
From an NDSU study, "Trends in the North Dakota Economy, dated, May, 2006:

Summary:
As North Dakota has shifted from its traditional dependence on natural resource-based activities to a more diversified economy, changes in employment, population, income, and retail sales have occurred.
This report summarizes changes in these and other economic indicators at the county and community level from 1980 to 2004.
Employment increased 12 percent from 1990 to 2004, with 19 of the state’s 53 counties registering job growth.
The largest percentage (and absolute) gains were in Cass (Fargo) and Burleigh (Bismarck) counties. Population statewide decreased by less than 1 percent from 1990 to 2004, as substantial growth in the Fargo and Bismarck-Mandan metropolitan areas was offset by population decreases in most of the state’s rural counties.
Per capita income (adjusted for inflation) increased 32 percent statewide from 1990 to 2004. The 2004 value ($29,247) was about 89 percent of U.S. per capita income, compared to 79 percent in 1990.
Retail sales also increased substantially from 1990 to 2004, and the state’s four wholesale-retail trade centers accounted for a growing share of sales. Pull factors, which measure a community’s retail sales compared to residents’ purchasing power, were stable or increasing for the wholesale-retail centers and declining for smaller trade centers, on average.
From USA Today five years ago "North Dakota economy booms, population soars, March 17, 2011, which was based on data as of 2010. The Bakken was booming but it was in the early stages, and had  not yet reached its stride. 

The two takeaways for me:
  • the North Dakota economy is more diverse than folks might think
  • population boom in Bismarck prior to Bakken (and maybe during the Bakken) may have been significantly impacted by rural folks moving to the city; in the 2006 study only two regions showed an increase in population (Fargo and Bismarck); all other regions in North Dakota declined in population

Recent Post And Updates Of Madison Activity In The Williston Basin -- December 18, 2016

Recent posts and updates of Madison activity in the Williston Basin:

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Cold Front Swept Into North Texas About One Hour Ago -- December 17, 2016

It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas,



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It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas, Bing Crosby

Random Update On A Petro Harvester Madison Well Along The North Dakota-Canadian Border -- December 17, 2016

Updates


January 11, 2021: production update --

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON11-20213056250816042622259428
MADISON10-20213159149822922830279040
MADISON9-20211738034113501580155822
MADISON8-20212443551619042213219419
MADISON7-20213154849419322688267810
MADISON6-20213061470719783244321034
MADISON5-202125531337186626332370263

December 30, 2016: see first comment regarding natural gas production. I have updated the production data to include the most recent data available (through 11/2016).

December 29, 2016: a reader provided an incredible update on these Petro Harvester wells along the Canadian border. 
 

Original Post
 
Besides the Bakken, anything else going on in the Williston Basin? Glad you asked.

Here is an update of a relatively recent Madison well:
  • 31720, 274, Petro Harvester, Busch Trust 31-30 164-92 B, Portal oil field, Burke County, a Madison well, 13 stages, 1.4 million lbs, TVD landing at 6,372 feet (shallow compared to middle Bakken); connection gases as high as 5,300units; target window 6-feet thick Midale; sAugust 25, 2015; TD, 12,380 feet, September 17, 2015; lateral about 6,580 feet; t12/15; cum 105K 11/17; cum 136K 11/21;
Scout ticket and production profile:

NDIC File No: 31720     API No: 33-013-01819-00-00     CTB No: 131720
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 11/30/2015     Wellbore type: Horizontal (company calls it directional)
Location: SESW 31-164-92     Footages: 283 FSL 2089 FWL    
Current Operator: PETRO HARVESTER OPERATING COMPANY, LLC
Current Well Name: BUSCH TRUST 31-30 164-92 B 
Total Depth: 12380     Field: PORTAL
Spud Date(s):  8/25/2015
Completion Data
   Pool: MADISON     Perfs: 6615-12265     Comp: 11/30/2015     Status: AL     Date: 12/13/2015     Spacing: ICO (Permit request: 400 acres)
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: MADISON     Cum Oil: 71639     Cum MCF Gas: 196703     Cum Water: 174160
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 12/13/2015     Pool: MADISON     IP Oil: 274     IP MCF: 289     IP Water: 536

Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON11-201630481043821883334107341070
MADISON10-201631601560382102542761401932568
MADISON9-201630491243861650524687235191168
MADISON8-20163153765356147802075320288465
MADISON7-201631728971611570226622246491973
MADISON6-201630873792371579427182252121970
MADISON5-201628757069081273913420116201800
MADISON4-2016305089501913793740230674335
MADISON3-2016315728544017001762307623
MADISON2-2016296220656613104923509235
MADISON1-2016317716747313345847608476
MADISON12-2015316910664015886829208292
MADISON11-2015677044862500250

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