Thursday, September 29, 2016

Saudi Arabia, OPEC Announce Cut; Two Hotels In Williston To Close -- September 29, 2016

Minimal blogging through the weekend; traveling. 

Active rigs:


9/29/201609/29/201509/29/201409/29/201309/29/2012
Active Rigs3469186184190

RBN Energy: US DUCs.
At long last, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported an “official” estimate of the U.S. drilled-and-uncompleted well (DUC) inventory as part of its monthly Drilling Productivity Report.  DUCs are a critical factor in forecasting production trends, as many of these wells are likely to be some of the first to come online as soon as prices move higher and thus have the potential to boost production quicker and easier than would otherwise be the case. However, the number of DUCs has been a difficult thing to measure, though not for lack of trying. There are, in fact, widely varying counts from many different sources circulating in the industry. Today, we begin a short series on these latest DUC counts and their potential implications.
Drilled-and-uncompleted wells, or DUCs, aren’t a new phenomenon. In fact, producers have always carried an inventory of DUCs. But in the environment of low prices and slashed capital budgets the market has been experiencing for the past 20 months or so, DUCs have taken on new relevance, not only as a tool for producers to manage their lease agreements and rig activity, but also as a control valve for production volumes, whether it is to defer supply to a future date or to quickly and economically turn on new production as prices rebound and/or as pipeline capacity is built. You can imagine, then, how without an accurate estimate of DUCs and the rate of actual completions, the current market is ripe for underestimating future production volumes that solely rely on existing and newly drilled wells.
Saudi Arabia's trillion dollar mistake. CNBCFrom WSJ.
Sources told Reuters that OPEC hammered out a deal on Wednesday to reduce the cartel's production to 32.5 million barrels per day from around 33.24 million, with output levels for each member to be determined in November.
*****************************
Hoboken Commuter Train Crash

Updates

October 1, 2016: I remember when this story first broke. Every update in the first 12 hours said that the engineer was cooperating with law enforcement. Now, we learn that as of today, investigators have still not talked with the engineer, and that asbestos concerns in the terminal has slowed down the investigation. The investigation is expected to last a full year. 

Original Post 

At least one dead; 70+ injured; in commuter train accident, Hoboken, NJ. Thank goodness it did not involve Bakken crude oil. I wonder if NY/NJ governors will ban commuter trains which have now killed more Americans than CBR carrying Bakken oil. Or any oil for that matter. All that technology being spent on "driverless cars" seems to be a solution for a problem that doesn't exist. Maybe they should be working on "driveless" technology for killer kommuter trains. Latest: the killer kommuter konductor had "health problems." (TV report, McDonald's, crawler, 12:16 p.m. Central Time.)

By the way, FWIW, another Tesla "on auto-pilot" crashes -- this one on German autobahn

************************
Bakken Economy
Two Williston Hotels Closing

The Dickinson Press:
The Missouri Flats Inn, once featured on a TV reality show “Hotel Impossible,” and the Marquis Plaza and Suites will be closing their doors this week.
In addition, it appears that man-camps in the Williston area, including the large one near Tioga, have closes. I can't say for sure, but I saw no vehicles parked at any man-camps in the Williston area (there may have some minor exceptions). The man-camp on the Alexander bypass appeared closed (hard to say) but "rooms" were advertised at $24.99/ night. My understanding is that man-camps in Williston were to be closed by September 1, 2016, but there was some question regarding compliance. In flux. Perhaps a local newspaper will provide updates.

It appear the El Rancho Motel is closed pending a sale (again, I do not know for sure). The co-located restaurant remains open.

For some notes and photos of the hotel boom in North Dakota at the height of the boom:
******************* 
The Market

Mid-day trading: Dow 30 down 162 points. Oil up the past two days on OPEC's announcement: up to $47.69 (which is no better than $40 for Saudi Arabia).

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

BR WIth Another Huge Merton Well -- September 27, 2016

Updates

September 29, 2016: see comments below. A reader has provided an excellent comment that helps explain what another reader noted. Comment brought up here for easier googling:
Rig counts are a little "dicey". Todays report shows Nabors X10 and Nabors X-10. I believe this one and the same rig. The White Mt. 252 is a "spuder" rig just drilling and setting 2000 ft surface casing. 
The OneOK gas plant is likely a factor in Dunn County. Also some of the more difficult Badlands locations are drilled in summer and fall when road conditions are better. Come winter and early spring, rigs are more common in more accessible locations in Mountrail, Williams and McKenzie Counties. It appears to me the actual deep-drilling rig count is 30. There is also a Key Drilling rig (146-100) in McKenzie County which might be drilling a vertical Madison formation test in the Rough Rider Field (or drilling surface hole only?)
Later, 9:47 p.m. Central Time: a reader noted there are 12 rigs in Dunn County an 10 rigs in McKenzie -- wondering why more rigs in Dunn County -- if it had anything to do with new ONEOK gas processing plant coming on-line soon? See first comment. 

Original Post
Wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 31359, SI/NC, Statoil, Samson 29-32 1H-R, Banks, no production data,
  • 32281, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21H, Heart Butte, no production data
One new permit:
  • Operator: North Range Resources, LLC
  • Field: Rough Rider (McKenzie)
  • Comment:
Four permits renewed:
  • Newfield (3): three Sturgeon permits in McKenzie County
  • EOG: a Mandaree permit in McKenzie County
Four permits canceled:
  • Resource Energy Can-Am (3): a Blanca State, a Jim, and an Ekness permit, all in Divide County
  • Slawson: a Pike Federal permit in Mountrail County
Producing wells completed:
  • 30280, 3,327, BR, Merton 21-15TFH, North Fork, 4 sections, t9/16; cum --
  • 30435, 174, SM Energy, Anne 13B-19HS, Ambrose, t9/16; cum -- 
  • 31009, 828, EOG, Shell 44-3229H, Parshall, t9/16; cum --
  • 31010, 1,344, EOG, Shell 46-3229H, Parshall, t9/16; cum --
  • 31018, 973, EOG, Shell 40-3229H, Parshall, t9/16; cum --
  • 31019, 835, EOG, Shell 42-3229H, Parshall, t9/16; cum -- 
Active rigs:


9/27/201609/28/201509/28/201409/28/201309/28/2012
Active Rigs3270190184190

US Shale Gas Reaches Britain -- First Time -- Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Presidential poll:



******************************************
Completing The Deal

TransCanada to buy Columbia Pipeline Partners for nearly $1 billion. Link here. From an earlier post:
Kinder Morgan Inc., with 32,000 miles of large-diameter pipeline, has more than double the mileage of TransCanada Corporation, which acquired Columbia Pipeline Group in July 2015. 
Also, back on March 17, 2016:
The deal is announced -- TransCanada will buy Columbia for $10.2 billion. It looks like Warren Buffett missed a deal.
From today's link:
Calgary, Alberta-based TransCanada Corp. TRP announced that it has offered $848 million to buy Columbia Pipeline Partners LP (CPPL), the master limited partnership affiliate of its newly acquired Columbia Pipeline Group Inc. unit. 
The Canadian oil company also announced its intention to take control of the other 53.8 million outstanding units in Columbia Pipeline Partners for $15.75 per common unit. The offer signifies a premium of about 3% over the limited partnership closing price of $15.30 on Sep 23, 2016. 
Active rigs in North Dakota:


9/28/201609/28/201509/28/201409/28/201309/28/2012
Active Rigs3270190184190

RBN Energy: estimating rates for a new pipeline.

Video of the day: Carson Wentz paper toss trick shots -- five-time world champion.


Two days ago it was reported that the first ethane shipment from US Gulf of Mexico arrived in Europe. Today, it is being reported that the first shale gas from the US has now reached Britain for the first time:
Chemicals giant Ineos shipped in Britain's first shale gas from the United States on Tuesday, sparking debate on the country's manufacturing future and Scotland's opposition to shale gas fracking.
Ineos is importing ethane, obtained from rocks fractured at high pressure -- or "fracking", in a foretaste of larger deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from shale set to reach Europe in 2018.
Chairman Jim Ratcliffe, one of Britain's richest men, argues that as the North Sea is unable to keep supplying the base ingredients to make chemicals, shale gas will be an important future energy resource.
"There simply is insufficient raw material (oil and gas) coming out of the North Sea to run Grangemouth so we're talking about 10,000 jobs in total that depend on that facility," Ratcliffe told BBC Radio Scotland.
"So were it not for the shale gas that we're bringing in from the U.S., Grangemouth would have closed three years ago," he said referring to the petrochemicals hub to the west of Edinburgh.
*********************************
The Market
Wednesday

 Futures: up 11 points.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Nice Update On Where Saudi Arabia And Iran Stand With Regard To Crude Oil -- Rigzone -- September 27, 2016

Rigzone link here. Some data points:

To "square the books":
  • Saudi Arabia needs $67 oil
  • Iran needs $61.50 oil
  • currently: about $45
Fiscal deficit:
  • Saudi Arabia: fiscal deficit equal to 13.5% GDP
  • Iran: compare at 2.5% GDP
  • Saudi Arabia: facing double-digit deficit this year
  • Iran: nearly balanced its budget this year after economic reforms in 2012/2013 following sanctions 
  • Saudi Arabia, 2015, drew down $115 billion last year; 1H16, drew down $52 billion
Economic growth:
  • Saudi Arabia: slowly sharply; about 1%
  • Iran: accelerating toward 4%
Production:
  • Saudi Arabia: around 10 million bopd
  • Iran: about 3.4 million bopd; target 4 million bopd
*********************************
Bakken Revolution

From The Wall Street Journal today: two years into oil slump, US shale firms are ready to pump more:
Few predicted that in the fall of 2014, when Saudi Arabia signaled that it wouldn’t curb its output to put a floor under crude prices. Oil pundits concluded that a brutal culling would force higher-cost players known as marginal producers—a group that includes shale drillers—out of the market.
But the greatest consequence of the Saudi decision and subsequent price drop is that it has delayed costly oil megaprojects, from deep-water platforms off Angola to oil-sands mines in Canada.
“The U.S. isn’t the marginal barrel but the most flexible,” said R.T. Dukes, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “We’ll be the fastest to snap back.”
More than 100 North American energy producers have declared bankruptcy during this downturn, but even companies working through chapter 11 keep pumping oil and gas. Many exit bankruptcy stronger thanks to a balance sheet that has been wiped clean. SandRidge Energy Inc., which filed in May, will exit next month after erasing nearly $3.7 billion in debt.
Many shale operators are still struggling at current prices, drilling at a loss and tapping Wall Street for new infusions of cash. But the strongest producers, including EOG Resources Inc. and Continental Resources Inc., soon will be able to generate enough money to pay for new investments and dividends—as well as boost production—even at low prices, analysts say.
U.S. production began inching up in July, shortly after oil prices rebounded to $50-a-barrel territory. Producers quickly put 100 rigs back to work this summer.
*********************************
The Political Page

I did not watch "the debate" last night. Based on how little reporting I see this morning regarding "the debate" it appears I did not miss anything.

This is the USC-LA Times poll from this morning (it is a poll released every day; 3,000 likely voters nationwide). I assume the poll is too early to reflect the sentiments of last night's debate. Red is Trump, blue is Hillary:


Drudge Report poll shows Mr Trump beat Ms Clinton by about 94% to 6%.

************************************
The Market

Close: up 133 points. NYSE --
  • new highs: 78 -- FedEx
  • new lows: 21 --
***********************
The Apple Page

Problems with math?
Earlier this month, Apple unveiled the new (and slightly improved) Apple Watch. The Apple Watch has a battery life of about 18 hours, meaning that most people tend to leave their watches charging on their nightstand overnight. Given that the Apple Watch doesn’t last through the night, and also is considerably bulkier than the average FitBit or Jawbone tracker (and probably uncomfortable to sleep in), it’s not entirely clear how Apple intends to leverage the existing watch into something that could track sleep. 
I don't know about you, but if my watch battery lasts 18 hours, that will get me through the night.

Oh, I see. You mean if I get up at 6:00 a.m. and then go to bed at 11:00 p.m. the battery will die at midnight -- 18 hours.

Yes.

Oh, I see.  I guess that's why my wife has two Apple watches. I don't think Apple has a problem.

Help Me Make It Through The Night, Norah Jones

Bakken Losing East Coast Market To Rising Imports -- RBN Energy -- September 27, 2016

Active rigs:


9/27/201609/27/201509/27/201409/27/201309/27/2012
Active Rigs3471190184189

RBN Energy: Bakken producers losing the East Coast market to rising imports.
The prospects for sellers of Williston Basin/Bakken crude oil in what once was a prime growth market—the U.S. East Coast—have been dwindling fast, as have the volumes of Bakken crude being railed and barged to refineries along the Mid-Atlantic coast and the Canadian Maritimes. Today we look at how a combination of weak crude oil prices, declining production, high relative freight costs, and the lifting of the U.S. crude oil export ban have opened the door to more imports from West Africa, and left Bakken producers out in the cold.
The Bakken remains an American success story, but the play’s star has certainly faded along with declining crude prices. As North Dakota oil production ramped up in 2013 and 2014 (peaking at 1.3 MMb/d in December 2014), shipments of Bakken crude to the U.S. East Coast via rail rose in tandem.  From only 10 Mb/d in 2011, Bakken barrels railed to the East Coast ultimately reached 431 Mb/d in May 2015.
In the early days of CBR, midstream companies, marketers and refiners rushed to develop the infrastructure (rail terminals, rail fleets, etc.) to serve refineries in the Mid-Atlantic states and Maritime Canada. But unfortunately, about the time all that infrastructure was in place, crude prices started to decline, the number of active drilling rigs in the Bakken plummeted, and crude oil production there fell to less than 1.0 MMb/d. 
The decline in production continues today; Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Drilling Productivity Report projects that Bakken crude production now (as of September 2016) languishes at only 875 Mb/d. Rail shipments to the East Coast in June 2016 averaged only 132 Mb/d, a decline of 69% since the peak in May 2015.