Sunday, June 5, 2016

Another Look At The Halo Effect: May Or May Not Be So Evident Here; But Strong Evidence Of Communication -- June 5, 2016

Updates

June 6, 2016: see first comment. From this link: http://bogc.dnrc.mt.gov/images/030221Strat.JPG, a snapshot of a small region of the oil-bearing payzones in the Williston Basin:


Original Post
 
Before reading the rest of this post, read this post first.

Now that you've read that post, and have seen the halo effect of the two Nelson Three Forks first bench wells on the original Nelson middle Bakken well -- all from the same Nelson pad, now look at this link: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2013/11/zavanna-adding-six-new-wells-to-20085.html.

At that link, scroll to the map. The obvious question is: what are the production profiles of #26685 and #26687?

[Note the number of frack stages originally reported in the data points below: the reader who brought this all to my attention states:
  • 26687: this Angus well was later fracked with the last 11 stages (together with fracking 26682, 26683, 26684, and 26686) - you can see that figure from 15/09....(I've corrected it below)
  • 26685 was fracked with 35 stages together with 26687 and the first 24 stages late 2014. 
  • Zavanna did cancel all fracking operations, when they where working the Angus wells.]
The latter is closer, so we will look at that one first:
  • 26687, 1,210, Zavanna, Angus 3-10 7H, Long Creek, middle Bakken, max gas was trip gas of 2,184 units; flares 2 - 6 feet, 19 drilling days, big rig 8 days, 81% within target interval, 24 stages, 2.8 million lbs, 35 stages, 4.2 million lbs; t4/15; cum 47K 6/15:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201629102631014256264053339955146
BAKKEN3-20163110716983564853868237895325
BAKKEN2-20162898939586495731002286151970
BAKKEN1-20163120765206021033043530393583710
BAKKEN12-201531215092004817096514204014310815
BAKKEN11-2015302272820905223914506043786827
BAKKEN10-2015282038519502252482976329098248
BAKKEN9-201597533721912452924554103701
BAKKEN8-201529369884009822626
BAKKEN7-201500730000
BAKKEN6-2015181136910086432220974189291777
BAKKEN5-2015231227010541303013937125291065
BAKKEN4-2015292104320250756627294203656497
BAKKEN3-20153350931892578472604681

Note the amount of water produced after 10/15.

Now, the one a bit farther away:
  • 26685, 1,543, Zavanna, Angus 3-10 5H, middle Bakken, gas shows as high as 5,770 units, flares 2 - 6feet; big rig - 12 days, 67% within target interval, 35 stages, 3.9 million lbs, Long Creek, t3/15; cum 74K 6/15:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-201651120776167412
BAKKEN2-20162917121659213897249081211
BAKKEN1-201631138571377532691139698241110
BAKKEN12-2015311250192473011
BAKKEN11-20151928009048517824
BAKKEN10-20151916299961384138241352516
BAKKEN9-2015112319242432197456725537
BAKKEN8-201511160156101500
BAKKEN7-2015312841333514189418490
BAKKEN6-20152926321239891235739264345054327
BAKKEN5-201523149471396364782007218981748
BAKKEN4-20152423863229811069930684285641762
BAKKEN3-201581023192977612742507306
 
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Halo Effect? Nelson Wells In Long Creek Oil Field, The Bakken -- June 5, 2016

Updates

Later, 12:53 p.m. Central Time: wow, this just gets better and better. I will add more but it will be a stand-alone post. This note is already too long; too much to absorb.
 
Original Note
 
Notes and Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. It is hard to separate fact from opinion or comment. If there are mistakes on this page, they are mine; the mistakes are not from the reader who sent me this very interesting information. There are quite a few story lines in this post. This is another great post for newbies to read closely.

A reader sent a note regarding some thoughts on Zavanna.

First, the reader provided this Facebook link: https://www.facebook.com/Flatirons-Field-Services-301042033405043/.

Then the comments:

One of the pictures at the Facebook link shows: 
  • Inlet Low Pressure Pipeline, Gas Lift Return, Medium Pressure, and Summit Oil line in the ditch adjacent to the plant.
Dry gas returns to the wells and to the Zavanna gas lifts. I think it explains part of the high gas numbers from the wells. The gas-sale spreadsheets from Zavanna are very different from the gas numbers from the well production data.

Long Creek at this link (has not been updated)(T153N-R99W), from the reader:
My guess is that Zavanna is testing 50 stages in the six (6) new wells in section 2 and 11 and 35 stages in section 3 and10.  Also: note the different layout of the middle Bakken wells compared to the layout of the Three Fork wells. One wonders if this is a testing bed for optimizing production of future wells. 
The reader also noted the incredible "halo effect" after neighboring Three Forks wells were stimulated. The "original" middle Bakken well was drilled back in 2012. Its production had declined to less than 4,000 bbls/month (before the Saudi Surge). The well was taken off-line for a full year in 2014/2015 (see monthly production figures below) and then back online for a month before it was taken off-line again while the neighboring Three Forks wells were fracked.
  • 20085, 825, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 1H, Long Creek, 35 stages; 3.8 million lbs; t8/12; cum 292K 4/16; off-line many months; see much more about this well as this post; 
  • 26676, 630, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 3TFH, Long Creek 35 stages, 6 million lbs, t12/15; cum 88K 4/16;
  • 26677, 695, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 2TFH, Long Creek, total drilling days, 28; "the Three Forks is sourced by the Lower Bakken member"; benches mentioned; "the first bench of the Three Forks is the zone of interest for oil production"; gas shows as high as 6,500 units; difficult to stay in target; majority of the lateral was drilled just above the ideal target zone (2 - 3 feet in TVD); reported dated July 22, 2014; 100% within TF first bench; 35 stages, 6 million lbs; t12/15; cum 92K 4/156;
The reader asks this very interesting question with regard to the Long Creek area: are the wells targeting the first bench of the Three Forks formation better than the middle Bakken wells?
Answer: Lynn Helms said some years ago that mano a mano, Three Forks, first bench wells are likely to be better than middle Bakken wells. 
Because of the Saudi Surge, it may be difficult to extrapolate from production numbers because operators will "manage" their production closely during periods of low commodity prices.  

The NDIC GIS map server appears to be down at the moment. When it comes back up I will provide a screen shot of the map where these wells are located. A map does exist at the above-linked site.

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Halo Effect
A middle Bakken well, before and after neighboring Three Forks 1st bench were fracked: 
  • 20085, 825, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 1H, Long Creek, 35 stages; 3.8 million lbs; t8/12; cum 292K 4/16:
Monthly Production Data (in bold red: neighboring Three Forks wells had just been fracked; tested 12/15):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201629166831588618526315863113915
BAKKEN3-20163119193182592498931174307102
BAKKEN2-20162913307127502200220544201120
BAKKEN1-2016291262311945378491887718080365
BAKKEN12-20153194198948464121329312559272
BAKKEN11-201535497747064894242607
BAKKEN10-20150000000
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-2015000046200
BAKKEN7-2015128281851360
BAKKEN6-201517111231064333131566714948466
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-20150000000
BAKKEN3-20150000000
BAKKEN2-20150000000
BAKKEN1-20150000000
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-20140000000
BAKKEN9-20140000000
BAKKEN8-20140000000
BAKKEN7-20140000000
BAKKEN6-20140000000
BAKKEN5-20140000000
BAKKEN4-201420234934471114303515241198
BAKKEN3-20143140604059218546653902301
BAKKEN2-201428475243042356740657111278
BAKKEN1-20143177418692345020715104759778
BAKKEN12-2013317589650229571293187073762
BAKKEN11-201330614359433319926928116011
BAKKEN10-2013317013757237521237637058209
BAKKEN9-2013307504741348081178616359704
BAKKEN8-2013308079808148021180748846476
BAKKEN7-2013319228879757521371068686380
BAKKEN6-2013308771902552891186325678849
BAKKEN5-201331806576325370993813938083
BAKKEN4-201317270125681997411823833
BAKKEN3-20132392969113447618056345214231
BAKKEN2-2013281508615002663326318173638538
BAKKEN1-20133119439200948013300581507814518
BAKKEN12-2012311430013548653319118786110795
BAKKEN11-201230134711346361981532153439531
BAKKEN10-201231160171613976621817740617309
BAKKEN9-20123022106221131081230385205827880
BAKKEN8-20121215835146422229517106016927
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An Interactive EIA Map Readers May Find Interesting

The link is here.

When you get to the link / the map, the first thing to do is zoom in on North Dakota so you can see how incredibly detailed this map really gets.

When completely "zoomed out" one is overwhelmed, seeing the entire United States.

When completely "zoomed in" one can see individual wells in North Dakota. Pretty impressive.

I have only begun to explore; do not know how useful it will be. 

Over at my "Data Links" page I have the following links for "Maps and Metrics." I have not checked recently to see how many of the links have broken. But it gives newbies an idea of the amount of data available to explore:

Maps and Metrics

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Nothing About The Bakken --- June 5, 2016

If you came here looking for the Bakken, scroll down or check out the sidebar at the right.

Tomorrow, the two older granddaughters begin a week of computer coding at the University of Texas Dallas. The drive is about 30 minutes but I assume in rush hour morning traffic and evening traffic it will be close to one full hour each way, which means about four hours on the road if I return home for the day. Part of the trip is on the dreaded I-35E into Dallas. It's a short segment but probably a very congested segment.

I'm thinking of dropping them off (at 9:00 a.m.) and then staying in the area all day, picking them up about 4:00 p.m.

Plano is just to the north and it appears there are many things to occupy a full week.

I think tomorrow I will spend the day at two locations, near each other, and near the UT Dallas campus: the main (?) public library in the area -- the Haggard Public Library, just four miles north -- and the high-end shopping mall, The Shops at Willow Bend.

Later in the week, perhaps on Tuesday, once I get the "lay" of the land I will take my bike and ride the trails at Arbor Hills Nature Preserve. I viewed but did not listen to the audio of the video below:

Bike Trail, Arbor Hills Nature Preserve, Plano, TX
 
 
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Sunday, June 5, 2016

Active rigs:


6/5/201606/05/201506/05/201406/05/201306/05/2012
Active Rigs2582194191213

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The Humor Page

A few days ago (May 31, 2016), UPI had a headline -- North Dakota rig count increases 10%.

With about 27 active rigs right now, a 10% increase would be about 3 rigs. In fact, the number moves up and down in a range, right now, between 25 and 30.

From the story:
Data from the state government show 28 rigs in service early Tuesday, up 16 percent from last week. The increase follows a slow march toward $50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of crude oil. WTI is up about 4 percent from last week.
And note the "typical" North Dakota tractor the UPI manages to stick in the photograph that accompanied the story.  I'm not even sure the story was taken in North Dakota: see if you can see the anomaly:
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Breakfast of Champions

This is an old story. Don sent it to me when it was "topical" and I delayed posting it. I guess I just got too busy.

So, let's go back a few weeks. Back to the Kentucky Derby, 2016. The winner: up until then, and including the Kentucky Derby, the undefeated thoroughbred, Nyquist. 

It turns out there is a North Dakota connection. The Dickinson Press is reporting that the breakfast this champion eats is from a feedstore in Dickinson, North Dakota: 
For undefeated thoroughbred Nyquist, some of his success can also be attributed to a successful performance horse feed created by Dickinson business Woody’s Feed and Grain.
After Nyquist’s win at the pinnacle of horse racing -- the Kentucky Derby on May 6 -- he was decorated with a sash of red roses.
Underneath the flowers that adorned his body and the jockey who pushed Nyquist to his limits were a sack of nutrients that gave the horse the power.
“This particular diet, Summer Heat, was one of our first beet pulp feeds that we came out with,” said Woody’s manager Alan Woodbury. “The trainers of today work with so many horses, like Doug (O’Neill) trains over 100. He wants all of his nutrition in one bag.”
O’Neil and Woodbury have been working closely with each other for more than two decades.
Woodbury said O'Neill was one of the first trainers who used this certain mixture of feed and it proved a good choice for him. He has continued to use the Summer Heat mixture since. 
Was Nyquist the only horse to eat the breakfast of champions? Nope:
Not only did their feed go into the stomach of Nyquist but also of 11 of the 22 horses that competed in the Kentucky Derby this year.
And of those 22, eight of the top 12 horses were also fed with Woody’s feed.
More on Alan Woodbury's background here and his upcoming semi-retirement. From a June, 2015, Dickinson Press story:

Alan Woodbury, owner of Woody’s Feed and Grain Co., is retiring. Well, semi-retiring is the better term.
The horse feed mill on Villard Street, which Woodbury has worked at for 46 years and has owned since 1983, has been sold to Scranton Equity and will officially transfer over on July 1, 2015.
Woodbury said he will stay on for six months to a year on a full-time capacity to smooth out the transitional period, and will work part-time for an unspecified period in the national racehorse market to help maintain the business’s clientele there.
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Getting Ready To Work

"Papa gave me a type-written page of instructions on how to draw a face, and a bunch of crayons, but what I really need is a YouTube video with instructions and some Faber-Castell artist pens. Sheesh."
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