The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+44 -- April 13, 2018

JP Morgan: earnings fall short of estimates. But profit surges. Overall, profit rose 35% to an all-time high, while revenue was up 10 percent.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Four energy stocks set to surge, Investopedia: HAL, SLB, Anadarko, and CVX.

Screenshots from the past few days, while I was traveling:

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The History Page

I really, really enjoyed 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2002, see this page. I did not know that Menzies had published a follow-up book -- I found it today at Bookmans in Tucson: 1434: The Year A Magnificent Chinese Fleet Sailed to Italy and Ignited the Renaissance, Gavin Menzies, c. 2007.

I've only just began to read this book. It is about half the size of his first book. So far, based on what little I have read -- this is going to be a very, very interesting book. See also Zheng He.

University Of Alabama, Grant Nelsen -- Devils Lake, ND, Native -- Advance To Final Four — First Time In Alabama's Program History -- March Madness -- NCAA Men's -- March 30, 2024

Locator: 46874SPORTS.

Sort of reminds me of Phil Jackson's trajectory..

From wiki:

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The Book Page

 The Blue Machine: How the Ocean Works, Helen Czeerski, c. 2023.

Mentioned earlier.

Tonight while reading this book --- wow, wow, wow -- the treasure ships of China, in the 15th century.

I've been fascinated by this story since I first read about it years ago (Gavin Menzies); there are several posts on the blog about the Chinese treasure ships of the 15th century. These ships, a giant fleet of 250 Chinese ships crewed by 27,000 men, known to history as the treasure ships. 

[A digression: this is really, really a bad example of scientific dialogue; based on this one review, it's unlikely I would ever read any book authored by Robert Finlay. He seems he has a closed mind on this subjecgt. I've read of Menzies' books and he convinced me. On top of that, Czerski's book, again, supports Menzies' thesis -- think about this -- 250 ships sailing "around" the world for 28 years -- think about that -- 28 years  -- Christopher Columbus with three small ships changed history with one or two years of sailing; Magellan, similarly -- but the Chinese -- 250 ships sailing for their emperor for 28 years -- ]

From the book, p186:

Kirin beer is named after the Japanese word for qilin (which means both the mythical creature, somewhat like a giraffe, which the Chinese invented before any of them saw the real thing, and the giraffe itself), although the creature on their logo is closer to the mythical beast than a modern giraffe.

From wiki:

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Word for the Day

Gyre.

Link here.

After Announcement, WTI Jumps $2.15/Bbl -- June 22, 2018

Oil output increasing. It's official. OPEC-non-OPEC (Russia) agree to increase production. No link; story everywhere. But look at this, WTI immediately after announcement -- 

Also, note that the US has asked Japan to stop importing Iranian oil. Yesterday, Iran accused the US of interfering with global oil trade. Well, duh.

That $2.15/bbl jump in the price of WTI is very, very interesting.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

From wiki:

The Renaissance began in Florence, Italy, in the 14th century. Various theories have been proposed to account for its origins and characteristics, focusing on a variety of factors including the social and civic peculiarities of Florence at the time: its political structure; the patronage of its dominant family, the Medici; and the migration of Greek scholars and texts to Italy following the Fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Turks. Other major centres were northern Italian city-states such as Venice, Genoa, Milan, Bologna, and finally Rome during the Renaissance Papacy.

I was unaware of the close relationship between the Pope and the House of Medici. Pope Eugenius IV moved the pontificate from Rome to Florence in 1434 where the Medici bankers were based. 

An interesting brief history of the Renaissance -- again, which began in Florence -- can be found in Gavin Menzies 1434: The Year a Magnificent Chinese Fleet Sailed to Italy and Ignited the Renaissance, c. 2008, particularly chapter 17. See also Zheng He.

The yield from rice fields is some several times that of wheat. I was unaware that the growing of rice was such a big deal in Italy. From the net:

Italy is the largest rice producer in Europe, and the Lombardy and Piedmont regions are Italy's rice bowl. Rice production in Italy started around the middle of the 15th Century. Today, japonica rice varieties are planted under irrigated conditions in large and highly mechanized farms.

From conigliera:

Asian rice was brought to the Middle East sometime around 1000 B.C., and the most likely route of introduction in Europe was through Spain, conquered by the Moors in the 8th century A.D. Although rice was known to the Romans, and mentioned by Pliny in his Natural History, it was only thought to have some medicinal properties and was not grown by them as a food source.

It was not until the 15th century that rice cultivation spread to Northern Italy, where the fertile swampy plains of the Po river valley provide suitable growing conditions.

In a letter written in 1475 the Duke of Milan claimed that from the one sack of rice he sent as a gift to the Duke of Ferrara 12 sacks could be harvested, if properly cultivated.

This impressive yield led to rice being quickly diffused throughout the region, but up until the mid-19th century only that one variety of rice- called Nostrale- was grown. In 1839 a Jesuit priest, Padre Calleri, returning from the Phillipines imported 43 different rice varieties, and it was from this stock that Italians began to experiment with the varieties that could best be adapted for use in Northern Italy’s temperate climate.

From Menzies, p. 204:

In many ways, the Po River resembles a smaller version of the Yangtze. Both rivers carry melting snows from the mountains eastward to the sea. Both suffer from flash floods and are controlled by a network of canals, locks, sluices, and dams. The waters of both are used to form extensive rice field. The exact date when the Po was first utilized for rice is not known (see above). Clearly it predated 1475 but by how much? Menzies suggests it was after 1435 when Taccola's first drawings of pumps appear, and probably after 1438, when his drawings of lock and sluice gates first appear. 

The Market, Energy, and Political Page, Part 2, T+50 -- April 19, 2018

This article really caught my attention, from oilprice.com. I posted it earlier as one story among many. Needs to be re-posted/discussed. From the article:

China National Offshore Oil Corporation sold two liquefied natural gas cargoes on a local exchange for the first time, just as China emerged from severe gas shortages this winter, during which industrial gas users had to divert supplies to residential customers.

CNOOC could hold another LNG auction next month, according to the official at the Shanghai exchange.

The Chinese drive to burn more gas instead of coal left residents in the north freezing in a cold snap in early December, prompting China to backpedal on the coal ban in some areas to ease natural gas shortages.

Ahead of the longest holiday period in China—the Lunar New Year in the middle of February, [China] was gobbling up LNG cargoes from all over the world as it was trying to avoid severe natural gas shortages.

This resulted in China becoming the world’s second-largest LNG importer in 2017, outpacing South Korea and second only behind Japan.

Chinese LNG imports surged 46 percent last year.

Wow, talk about so many story lines. Just that last line, for example: Chinese LNG imports surged 46 percent last year.

I immediately thought of this article posted just a few days earlier:

Now, today, from energypost.eu:

Oh, well.

Yes, to answer the question, India was a signatory to the Paris climate accords.

The accord: only words.

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The History Page: Corfu

About a month ago, I posted a bit about the Crusades.

A bit more background, this time from 1434, Gavin Menzies, page 64, going back to the "Middle Ages,"

... the three major seafaring powers of Europe -- Aragon (Spain), Genoa (Italy), and Venice (city-state), exploited [the geography of the Mediterranean and the weather influenced by the mountains that surround the Sea] to conduct trade with the east through Alexandria and Cairo. Venice and Genoa were entirely dependent on trade for their huge wealth.

Venice's wealth was rooted in her capture of Byzantium. In 1204 a Crusade had been launched to take Jerusalem. Financing for the Crusade was hard to come by until the [Venetian] Doge Dandolo offered support -- provided the Crusaders would capture Zara (contemporary Zadar in Croatia) on their way south. The Crusaders agreed, becoming mercenaries in the process.

From my note at the link above:

• the Fourth Crusade: 1202 - 1204; military forces sailed to the East; diverted to Constantinople, which the crusaders took, together with much of Greece
• the Fifth Crusade: 1217 - 1219; ended with the recovery of Jersualem by treaty 

Back to Menzies (see also Zheng He),

The temptation to capture Byzantium for Venice, as well, proved irresistible to the Crusaders, who initiated the sack of the Orthodox Christian capital by another Christian state. [I have always wondered about this  -- the dots now connect.]

When Byzantium fell, her empire was divided amongst the victors. Venetian spoils, exemplified by the four bronze horses and marble on the facade of Saint Mark's Basilica, included Byzantine islands and ports from the Black Sea through the Aegean to the Ionian Sea. Venetian galleys thus had friendly harbors all the way to Byzantium and Alexandria.

Venice now controlled the Adriatic. In 1396, six years after she had defeated Genoa and fourteen years after the Cretan revolt, she acquired Corfu. To Venetians, Corfu was of vital importance due to its strategic location. Corfu was of vital importance due to its strategic location. Corfu became the fortified base from which Venetian galleys policed the strait leading to the Adriatic.

Corfu: the second largest island in the Ionian Sea; including its small satellite islands, forms the northwesternmost part of Greece.

With regard to the four horses and St Mark's Basilica, from wiki:

The Horses of Saint Mark were installed on the balcony above the portal of the basilica in about 1254. They date to Classical Antiquity, though their date remains a matter of debate, and presumably were originally the team pulling a quadriga chariot, probably containing an emperor. By some accounts they once adorned the Arch of Trajan.

The horses were long displayed at the Hippodrome of Constantinople, and in 1204 Doge Enrico Dandolo sent them back to Venice as part of the loot sacked from Constantinople in the Fourth Crusade.

For another day, completely unrelated but showing up about now in Menzies' book, I will leave you with this question: what was the origin of the name, the Croatans, for a Native American tribe along the Roanoke River in Virginia (US)? I assume there is much written on the etymology of that name but I just haven't taken time to research it. While living in Virginia some years ago I often visited the area under discussion and was always fascinated by the word (Croatan) but never went down that etymology path.

John Barth might have provided an answer. I see from my storage list The Tidewater Tales, John Barth, c. 1987 is in box #6011 in storage. I started [reading] that book some years ago; lost interest, but now, might find it very interesting.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+1 -- Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Top conventional wells to watch in 2018 -- WoodMac -- over at Rigzone:
A full list of the most anticipated conventional wells this year can be seen below:

• Pemex – Yaaxtaab-1
• Repsol – Bon Bini-1, Ivela
• Repsol & Shell - Boyuy, Jaguar
• Kosmos Energy – Anapai-1, Requin Tigre-1
• Statoil – Guanxuma, Aru Trough
• BP – Aspy, Peroba
• Eni – Santola-1, RD-1, 4118-4-1, Calypso-1, Cuttlefish
• Siccar Point Energy – Lyon
• Total – Tucano-1, Paddavissie-1, Tepat, Antelope South-1
• Far Limited – Samo-1
• Tullow Oil – Cormorant-1
• Statoil – Gjokasen
• Rosneft – Maria-1
• Gazprom – Bautinskaya-1
• Petro Matad – Takhi-1

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Global warming: this was in the Philadelphia Inquirer so it must be true --  it was the coldest April in 20 years across the United States, feds say.

Temperatures in the contiguous United States were 2.2 degrees below 20th century averages last month, making it the coldest April in 20 years, according to the government analysis released Tuesday.

Overall it was the ninth-chilliest April on record in Pennsylvania in records dating to 1895, said the National Center for Environmental Information.

In Philadelphia, 21 of the 30 days were cooler than normal, and coincidentally the official temperature at Philadelphia International Airport also finished 2.2 degrees below the 30-year average in a month that featured a significant snowfall.

Summer energy -- from Drudge Report today:

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The Literature Page

I'm still in my "China" phase. See also Zheng He.

These are the four books I have recently read:

• 1421, Gavin Menzies, c. 2008; softcover; Powell's in Portland, OR
• 1434, Gavin Menzies. c. 2009, softcover; Half-Price Bookstores;
• A New Literary History of Modern China, edited by David Der-Wei Wang, c. 2017
• The Opium Wars: The Addiction of One Empire and the Corruption of Another, W. Travis Hanes, c. 2004

I am now reading:

• Tai-Pan: The epic novel of the founding of Hong Kong, James Clavell, c. 1966 

And, I am ordering The Chinese Typewriter, from Amazon next week. Powell's had a hard copy for full price ($35) and one can get hard copy from Amazon for about $28 (free shipping) or a softcover for much less. 

After I mentioned that I was in my "China" phase and had just completed The Opium Wars, a reader highly recommended that I read James Clavell's Tai-Pan. I bought a copy today at Powell's in Portland, OR, and have started reading it. I am taking my time to read it; reading it very, very slowly. When I first read the subtitle ("The epic novel of the founding of Hong Kong") my hunch was that this was an "Ayn Rand novel set in China." Wow, having just read the first 15 pages, my hunch seems right on.

I was very fortunate to have read The Opium Wars first; this novel makes so much more sense knowing the background.

So, to the reader who recommended that I read Tai-Pan, thank you.

Wow, Wow, Wow! WTI Breaches $65 -- March 21, 2018

Today, WTI up 2.4%, trading at $65.04.

Most recent data from the EIA:

Did the dollar have anything to do with this today? Unlikely. The dollar is stronger today than it was yesterday. Long-term trend: down.

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The Geography Page

The Greater Antilles: a grouping of the larger islands in the Caribbean Sea:Cuba, Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic), Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.

Antilles: Europeans used the term Antilia as one of the mysterious lands featured on medieval charts, sometimes as an archipelago, sometimes as continuous land of greater or lesser extent, its location fluctuating in mid-ocean between the Canary Islands and Eurasia.

The Lesser Antilles: a grouping of smaller islands that form an arc between the northern/northeastern coast of South America, extending up to the Greater Antilles. The Lesser Antilles islands form the boundary between the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

West Indies: the Greater Antilles; the Lesser Antilles; and the Lucayan Archipelago (northeast of Cuba, east and southeast of southern tip of Florida).

From 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2002

The author:

• 1953: joined the Royal Navy at the age of 15
• seventeen years in the Royal Navy
• 1968 - 1970: commander of the HMS Rorqual; took her from China to Australasia, the Pacific, and the Americas
• guiding stars in the southern hemisphere are Canopus and the Southern Cross; crucial in his discoveries
• educated by a Chinese amah for the first five years of his life
• spent years traveling back and forth to China and around the world; tracking Chinese voyages of exploration
• mentions Chinese porcelain, silk, votive offerings

From the introduction:

• medieval chart dated 1424, signed by Venetian cartographer Zuane Pizzigano
• coastlines of Europe were accurate
• the map also included a group of four islands far out in the western Atlantic: Satanzes, Antilia, Saya, and Ymana
• two largest islands
• Antilia
• Satanazes
• antilia -- anti-- on the opposite side of 
• ilha -- island -- 
• "island on the opposite side of the Atlantic from Portugal"
• Satanazes, "Satan's or Devil's Island" -- a very distinctive name
• author suggests:
• Antilia: Puerto Rico
• Satanazes: Guadeloupe island, in the Caribbean
• this meant that someone surveyed the islands before Columbus
• con/ymana: "volcano erupts there" -- on map where there are three volcanoes on Guadeloupe today
• the volcanoes had erupted twice between 1400 and 1440 but o/w dormant
• someone had established a colony on the island 68 years before Columbus
• it appears the Portuguese had obtained a slightly later -- 1428 -- chart that also showed the same islands
• like Sherlock, author eliminated all other global navies at the time, and by default: the Chinese were left
• all European explorers owed a huge debt to the great figure of Henry the Navigator (1394 - 1460), the Portuguese prince whose base in southwest Portugal became the academy for explorers, cartographers, shipwrights, and instrument makers
• problem: in the mid-15th century almost every Chinese map and document of the period was deliberately destroyed by officials of the Chinese court, following an abrupt reversal of its foreign policy; far from embracing the outside world, after these momentous discoveries, China turned in on itself; anything commemorating its expansionist past was expunged from the record

Random Update Of An MRO Lun Pad In Reunion Bay -- June 10, 2018

Updates

October 1, 2018: See this post.

Fracked:

• 34101, Briek, drl, fracked;

On same pad, next to be fracked:

• 34100, SI/NC, Nora Jones,
• 34102, SI/NC, Julia Jones,
• 34103, SI/NC, Dye USA,
• 34104, SI/NC, Hammerberg USA,

Will affect:

• 19514, off-line, Jones USA, t4/11; cum 524K 8/18;

Might affect:

• 29211, off-line, Doll USA, t6/15; cum 473K 8/18;
• 29210, off-line, Tony Lun USA, t6/15; cum 365K 8/18;

October 1, 2018: MRO is starting to frack these wells (#34100 - #34104, inclusive). This one has been fracked but still on drl/conf status:

• 34101, drl, MRO, Briek USA 13-14H, 33-053-08224, 8.1 million gallons water; 88% water by mass, Reunion Bay, fracked 7/29/18 - 8/16/18; 

Original Post

It certainly looks like #29211 might have been re-fracked (although not the production jump one would expect with a re-frack) but no data at FracFocus and no sundry form to suggest this well was refracked:

• 29211, 2,929, MRO, Doll USA 12-14H, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 457K 4/18;

Recent production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	6255	6245	1313	13844	11931	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	7121	7159	1624	17020	14943	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	7004	6868	2288	14192	11760	448
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	11040	10984	2965	19548	16745	380
BAKKEN	12-2017	18	6794	6751	1598	10948	8953	496
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	6671	6510	2161	10579	8388	438
BAKKEN	10-2017	17	3388	3505	559	6791	5620	232
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	6801	6865	958	14259	11503	853
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	7229	7243	1203	14504	11959	334

From an earlier post:

March 17, 2018: 29209, IA/2,776, MRO, Ernestine USA 11-14TFH-2B, why did this well go IA 1/18? #34100 - 34104, inclusive all SI/NC; the 4-well pad:

• 29208: Lun USA, off-line since 2/18;
• 29209: Ernestine, off-line since 1/18;
• 29210: Tony Lun USA, not off line; production fairly stable are around 4,000 to 6,000 bbls/month
• 29211: Doll USA, as above

The graphic:

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Cotton

A Note For The Granddaughters

Until earlier today I had only a very remote, passing interest in cotton. In another life, we lived in Alabama for two years and became slightly acquainted with cotton -- and thus the very remote, passing interest in cotton. Until today.

In 1421, The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2002, spent a bit of time discussing cotton and its genetics. Fascinating. So, after spending much of today reading about cotton and genetics (on the internet), I coincidentally find this article on cotton at The Wall Street Journal: 

China is re-emerging as a major consumer of U.S. cotton after years of stockpiling the fiber, a shift that together with poor growing conditions in Texas has sent prices surging to a six-year high.

The world’s most populous nation has purchased futures contracts covering more than 361,000 bales of U.S. cotton for 2019-20, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. That is enough to make 400 million T-shirts. China has never booked that much cotton that far in advance at this time of year, in data going back to 1998.

“It’s very unusual to have that many bales in the books,” said Peter Egli, risk manager at Plexus Cotton Ltd. “China is the biggest taker of forward sales.”

China’s return to global cotton markets is likely to mean a period of higher prices for a fiber used in most apparel, textiles and upholstery. It is also a boon to U.S. producers who have long labored under a market whose prices investors perceived to be capped by China’s cotton stores, which for years have accounted for more than half of all global stocks.

China announced this month that it intends to raise cotton import volumes, a move that could increase Chinese purchases of American fiber at a time when the Trump administration is calling for more imports from the U.S.

Hmmmm.....Trump ... tariffs ... 

November 23, 2019, Part 1 -- Nothing About The Bakken

I'm on vacation for the next few days. Blogging about the Bakken will not be my priority. I would recommend folks coming here to read about the Bakken wait until Tuesday, November 26, 2019, to come back to the blog.

Disclaimer: I often make typographical and/or factual errors. If this is important to you go to the source. 

Note: in all posts there will be factual and typographical errors. If anything on the blog is important to you, go to the source. Opinions and facts are often hard to tell apart but I don't intentionally post fake news. I do have a hidden agenda: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Note: the blogger app I use is owned by Google. They use cookies. 

Intermittent blogging due to traveling.

Top stories for the week may be delayed.

Lots of moving parts in the last 24 hours:

• son-in-law flew out to his parents in Kentucky earlier in the to see sister's  new baby, his first niece
• Arianna and Sophia flew unaccompanied to Kentucky last night to meet up with father to see said new niece
• daughter and middle granddaughter Olivia on way to Miami, FL, to participate in soccer tournament; later in week, they fly cross-country to Las Vegas, NV, to participate in another soccer tournament
• my wife and I are headed out to the Permian for a couple of days

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Things On My Mind

Other Than Family

And The Blog

Biggest business story of the week: Schwab to buy TD Ameritrade. TD Ameritrade is huge in the DFW area; much new building in the last five years. Now, all that becomes Schwab. One wonders what this was all about. How long were the talks going on? But going forward this really is likely to shake up the banking and brokerage industry. One wonders about Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, how this affects Merrill Lynch? I am very, very familiar with both (ML and Schwab).

Compare: But look at this, from yesterday, yes, it's dated November 22, 2019, a comparison between Schwab and ML -- over at Stockbrokers. 

Longest US bull market in history
Energy
Apple

• that AirPod story from yesterday blew me away

YouTube music

• cat-and-mouse game to remove copyright material

My three books for the week:

• Lost To The West: The Forgotten Byzantine Empire That Rescued Western Civilization, Lars Brownworth, c. 2009. -- nearly completed.
• The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009. -- about a third of the way through.
• And I'm re-reading 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2008. -- halfway through, again.

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Back to the Blog

Barron's top stories:

• Pfizer's new strategy makes it worth another look
• Charles Schwab stock could surge after a TD Ameritrade deal
• The bull market could end in 2020. Or not. Be prepared. Shouldn't one always be prepared?

Now, notes from readers.

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Greta: Geta Grip

Anyone who doesn't understand what's going on with regard to anti-fracking movement in the US isn't paying attention.

GDP:



Take my breath away:

Berlin

National team soccer player; Ph.D, mother.

Certified SCUBA diver and open-water sailor; little sister.

Inflation Watch -- Apple's Air Tags -- 25% Off -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46878APPLE.

Without question, with inflation the big story this past year, I have made four huge changes:

• we have really, really cut back on dining out;
• I watch sales at our local grocers like a hawk, as they say; I may or may not save much money -- our grocery bill is the least of our concerns -- but I find it fascinating to see how prices change -- on a percentage basis, significantly -- from week to week -- and I've learned some great price points
• when things go on sale, I pounce -- particularly coffee (K-cups), detergent, paper products (Bounty, e.g.)
• non-perishable household products? Have almost completely replaced Target with Amazon (particularly toiletries)

Apple's Air Tags on sale, link here. These Air Tags go on sale every so often and at the same price price, around $75 vs $100. I grab them at $75. Incredibly useful. Put them in your dog's collar, but especially put them in your cat's collar. Put them in the shoe of your toddlers. Shoot, put one in my shoe, LOL. In Toronto, Ontario, everyone should be putting one in their car(s).

By the way, another great example of Apple's price points, which we've talked about before.

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Amazon Is Amazing 

I ordered a hard-to-find item from Amazon several days ago. Yesterday, I got a note from Amazon updating the expected delivery date -- not sooner than April 1 - 2, 2024.

This morning, I got a note from Amazon: that item is now out for delivery and it will be arriving today, Easter Sunday. Amazing. 

I have several items on order; they could have arrived today but I asked Amazon to delay delivery until Monday. As a rule, I don't like Sunday deliveries in a gated community. And, Amazon cuts the price every so slightly if I delay deliveries by one or two days so they can "bundle" items, saving shipping costs. 

Link here.

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The Book Page

I continue to read The Blue Machine: How The Ocean Works, Helen Czerski, c. 2023.

I finished Max Boot's The Road Not Taken. Incredible. Brought back so many memories. 

I'll probably go back and re-read some sections of Gavin Menzies' books. 

The Annotated Emerson: Ralph Waldo Emerson, edited by David Mikics, c. 2012, arrived earlier this week; yet to get started on this one. Maybe now, while watching the PGA in Houston.

Billy Wilder: born, 1906; died, 2002. Almost exactly the 20th century. Alfred Hitchcock, almost an exact contemporary, born the same year as my maternal grandmother, 1899; died, 1980 -- at age of 80.

My maternal grandmother? Died at age of 90 in 1990. We were stationed in Germany at the time. When we got the note that she had been admitted to the hospital and not expected to live more than another 24 - 48 hours, the USAF flew me and our younger daughter Laura back to the states so Laura could see her great-grandmother at least once. We made it and less than twelve hours later, Reka passed away.

WTI Breaks Through $59 -- March 18, 2019

Active rigs:

$59.01	3/18/2019	03/18/2018	03/18/2017	03/18/2016	03/18/2015
Active Rigs	65	58	47	32	107

Five new permits: pending

• Operator: XTO
• Field: Heart Butte (Dunn County)
• Comments: XTO has permits for a 5-well FBIR Baker pad in section 25-149-92 in Heart Butte oil field (see below)

Four permits renewed:

• BR: two Saddle Butte permits and two Curtis permits, all in McKenzie County

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 34162, 469, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35BX, Bear Creek, t1/19; cum --;
• 35834, SI/NC, Whiting, Moline 31-14-5TFHU, Tyrone,
• 32463, 421, Petro-Hunt, Milt Sandra 15-20HS, Ambrose, t3/19; cum --;
• 35289, 771, Whiting, Berg Trust 34-22-3TFH, Pembroke, t3/19; cum --;
• 34670, 1,142, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-4, Wheelock, t2/19; cum --;
• 34669, 1,520, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-5,  Wheelock, t2/19; cum -0;

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XTO Baker Wells Sited in Section 25-149-29, Heart Butte Oil Field

There's currently a 5-well Baker/Walker pad situated in this section:

• 23395, 1,158, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25E, Heart Butte, t1/13; cum 231K 1/19;
• 19293, 1,537, XTO, FBIR Walker 34X-25, Heart Butte, t7/11; cum 355K 1/19;
• 23394, 1,170, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25A, Heart Butte, t1/13; cum 252K 1/19;
• 23393, 943, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25F, Heart Butte, t1/13; cum 218K 1/19;
• 19292, 1,358, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25, Heart Butte, t7/11; cum 220K 1/19;

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The Book Page

The Silk Roads: A New History of the World, Peter Frankopan, c. 2015, first Vintage softcover printing, 2017. At B&N: $27.00.

It looks like a good book but I'm always leery when I read "a new history...." of anything.

China and India competing for trade in the 14th and 15th century. From the book:

Cochin emerged as a rival to Calicut int he fifteenth after an aggressively competitive tax regime succeeded in attracting considerable trade ....

Widening horizons in this way, however had its costs. Zheng He's first expedition involved some sixty large ships, several hundred smaller vessels and nearly 30,000 sailors, representing a very substantial outlay in terms of pay, equipment and the extensive gifts sent along with the admiral for us as tools of diplomacy. This and other initiatives were paid for by a sharp rise in the production of paper money, but also by increasing mining quotas -- which led to a trebling of revenues from this sector in just over a decade after 1390. -- pp. 190 - 191.

Zheng He? See this post. Or search "Menzies" at the blog.

Spices were often a euphemism for opium along the "silk roads." It would be interesting to know more about opium trade early on in the Silk Road history, let's say, well before the 16th century. The first mention of opium in Frankopan's book is with the 19th century Sino-British opium wars.

When Paris Sizzled: The 1920s Paris of Hemingway, Chanel, Cocteau, Cole Porter, Josephine Baker, and Their Friends, Mary Mauliffe, c. 2016.

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1969

I have always said "1969" was the best year for music. Now this, from Hollywood Reporter:

Sony Pictures on Monday released the first poster for Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

In the official promo art for the forthcoming drama, stars Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio are seen dressed in late '60s garb for the film centered around the actors' respective characters, Cliff Booth and Rick Dalton, as they move through a city and a business they hardly recognize anymore.

The highly anticipated film was first announced in February 2018. Tarantino — who is directing and producing the film, for which he also wrote the script — describes it as "a story that takes place in Los Angeles in 1969, at the height of hippy Hollywood."

"I've been working on this script for five years, as well as living in Los Angeles County most of my life, including in 1969, when I was seven years old," Tarantino has said of the film. "I'm very excited to tell this story of an L.A. and a Hollywood that don't exist anymore. And I couldn't be happier about the dynamic teaming of DiCaprio and Pitt as Rick and Cliff."

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His Name Was Bill 

Da Doo Ron Ron, Lala Brooks

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- Happy New Year! -- MDU -- November 14, 2019

MDU Resources increases dividend for 29th consecutive year. Press release.

• previous: 20.25 cents/share; a 2.5% increase in quarterly dividend
• new: 20.75 cents/share
• annualized: 83 cents/share (was 81 cents/share)
• at share price of $29, pays 2.86% (was paying 2.78%)
• to stockholders of record: December 12, 2019
• payable on January 1, 2020
• announced November 14, 2019

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Notes For The Granddaughters

From 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, 2002, page 91:

Western methods of astronomy embodied the principles first enunciated by Greek astronomers such as Aristotle and Ptolemy, basing latitude on the equator.

In Chinese astronomy, latitude was determined not by the distance north of the equator but by the distance from the Polar Star, Polaris. A bright and easily identifiable star, Polar, sits directly above the North Pole, billions of miles out in space.

When viewed from the North Pole, the Polar Star, Polaris, is directly above the observer at 90° latitude; at the equator it sits on the horizon at 0° altitude or 0° latitude. Measuring its height above the horizon (altitude) enables the navigator to calculate his latitude.

Moreover, since Polaris is due north it enables magnetic variation -- the difference between due north and the magnetic north of a compass -- to be determined and adjustments made.

.. And One For Road -- Off The Net For Awhile -- November 18, 2019

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The Book Page

My three books for the week:

• Lost To The West: The Forgotten Byzantine Empire That Rescued Western Civilization, Lars Brownworth, c. 2009.
• The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009.
• And I'm re-reading 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2008.

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The Geology Page

Quick! Fill in the blanks: ____________  __________ is arguably the rarest and most historically important stone in the world. It comes from only one source, a single mountain in Egypt that the Romans called Mons _________________. It is a purple, volcanic stone, very dense and fine-grained, with small white inclusions. Samples were first brought to Emperor Tiberius in Rome who decreed that ________________ _________________ would be for the use of the Imperial family only.

Centuries later Emperor Constantine placed seven huge drums made of _____________ _____________ to hold religious relics at the base of a 30-meter column erected in honor of himself and his new city.

Flashback: An American Crude Oil Gusher -- July 6, 2018 -- Quick! Name The Most Productive On-Shore Well In 2012

Doesn't know his history: China's Xi says "Trump has unleashed the largest trade war in economic history." Way wrong. Maybe China's Xi needs to re-read the history of the "opium wars" and how that turned out for the Chinese.

One of my least favorite tropes: lack of investment by the oil companies over the past ten years is going to result in $150-oil in the out years.

Predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand. I'm certainly in the minority on this but I'm not a bit worried about this "lack of investment." It's another trope. If that's the right word.

Bloomberg pressed that trope again -- the lack of investment by the oil sector.  The headline does not provide a time frame; the article does: 2030 -- twelve years from now. My hunch is that Ben Sharples can't even predict accurately what the price of oil will be next week, much less the price of crude oil in 2030.

With regard to lack of investment and lack of exploration, take a look at the sidebar at the right that lists all the shale plays in the US if the price is right. There must be three dozen plays, and right now, only three are actively being pursued: the Permian, the Bakken, and the Eagle Ford.

Quick: in what basin was the largest onshore well in 2012 found? The answer is at this link.

Without the aid of pumps or fracking, the oil just flooded out — more than 600,000 barrels in its first year, making it the nation’s most productive on-shore well in 2012.

The hydrocarbon bounty, however, includes unexpectedly large amounts of methane and other components of natural gas that Fidelity has to burn off because there is no way to get those fuels to market.

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The Literary Page

I just finished Graham Greene's The Quiet American.

It started with Edmund de Wall's books on ceramics, and then moving to the Gavin Menzies' books, and then to W. Travis Hanes The Opium Wars, I finally ended up with The Quiet American. I think the immediate precursor was the "biography" of Edward Lansdale and the lead-up to the US war in Vietnam.

Wow, The Quiet American. What an incredible book. The way Graham Greene can move from the far past to the recent past to the future, and even throw in an epilogue, is quite incredible.

If I recall correctly, "it" was said that Graham Greene, when asked, specifically said Edward Lansdale was not the "model" for the character in The Quiet American who told the story, but that's hard to believe. Too many coincidences between the book and the story of Edward Lansdale.

Oil Tops $68 For First Time In More Than Three Years -- April 18, 2018

From CNBC:

Weekly petroleum report, link here:

• US crude oil inventories: decreased by 1.1 million bbls; now at 427.6 million bbls
• operable refining capacity: 92.4% (flat, but technically down a bit)
• otherwise, ho-hum
• I no longer track "time to re-balance"; that metric has become irrelevant
• the "old" US crude oil inventory baseline number was 350 million bbls
• the "new" US crude oil inventory baseline number is 400, maybe 420 million bbls

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For The Granddaughters

Well before the 15th century, the Chinese were using the equatorial system for open water navigation. From Gavin Menzies, 1434, page 33:

For the stars, the Chinese had the same system of measurement they used to determine latitude and longitude. This system was called the equatorial system -- vastly simpler than the equinoctial system [Wiki does not have a page for the equinoctial system], used in medieval times which relied on the ecliptic or the horizon. After 1434, Europeans adopted the Chinese system, which remains with us today.

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For The Granddaughters

If there is one part of the world's geography that gives me the most trouble, it is Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei.

I was reminded of that while talking to a woman of Asian descent recently (the Tucson wedding).

My wife is Hispanic-Japanese -- her mother was Japanese, born in Japan and emigrated to the United States during the Korean War.

I have always enjoyed trying to recognize the ethnicity of people I meet -- based on any number of criteria. I remarked to this woman that I was was having trouble with her ethnicity, running through about six different Asian possibilities. I failed to mention Filipino. When she said she was Filipino, I was quite taken aback. She did not appear Filipino to me and after after a bit of conversation it turned out that only her mother was Filipino. Her father was not Asian. That explained everything.

She looked more Japanese than Filipino and interestingly, had a connection to Malaysia -- and that's where the blog helped me out immensely.

I know almost nothing about that part of the world (geographically) but because I had been following the route of the Shaden on the blog, I was somewhat familiar with the straits, Malacca, and Singapore. Absolutely fascinating.

Just one more reason why I love to blog and how much it has permeated all aspects of my life.

[I completely missed the next one, but I was working with almost no information. I suggested to the woman next to Ms Filipino above that she looked to be Welsh or Irish -- completely wrong: she was of Lithuanian/Polish background. When we were stationed in Europe, we were struck by how beautiful Polish pottery was -- and, of course, that became the topic of conversation.]

TOC -- A Re-Post Of An Earlier Entry -- June 16, 2018

This is being re-posted for newbies to help them understand the Bakken a bit better. There is nothing new here; it has been posted before. I'm not sure all the links still work. I now know a lot more about the Bakken than when I first started, so some of this may be "out of date," or very wrong, But it is what it is. Or more accurately, it is what it was some years ago.

At the very end of this re-posting, I have posted a little nugget that might be new for all of us.
Previously posted:

The 2013 USGS survey is linked at the sidebar at the right.

Newbies should go back and read this post of November 1, 2011.

There are numerous factors affecting the quality of an oil basin. Total organic content (TOC) is one of the Big 5.

A bit more about TOC at this link. Now, how does the Bakken stack up against, let's say, Saudi Arabia?

There are five areas in the world where "world class" source rock exists:

• The Bakken
• Norwegian Sea (North) and North Sea
• Venezuela
• Saudi Arabia
• Norwegian Sea (South) and The Netherlands

For comparison, TOCs:

• Bakken: as high as 11%
• United Arab Emirates: 0.3 to 5.5%
• Saudi Arabia: 2 to 5%
• Trinidad: 2.2%
• North Sea: 5.6% 

When I first came across this information, I about fell off my chair: the Bakken has a TOC average of 11 percent, compared to Saudi with varying reports of 2 - 5 percent. Wow.

So, that was from the earlier post, back in 2011.

Did the USGS 2013 Survey of the Bakken-Three Forks have anything to say about the TOC of the Bakken? Yes, based on new information, and I quote from the first page:

"The upper and lower shale members are the primary source rocks for the Bakken TPS, with present-day total organic carbon (TOC) values from less than 1 weight percent to 35 weight percent (Lillis, 2013)."

A TOC of 35% is the highest I have ever seen reported for the Bakken. As noted above, the 30-second sound bite: the average TOC for the Bakken is 11 percent. Most sources quote TOC as high as 16 percent in the Bakken, and there is one source that quotes a TOC as high as 20%.

Again, more recent data suggests the TOC in the Bakken can be as high as 35%. That must be some kind of record.

The four-page USGS 2013 assessment does not provide more detail regarding TOC. It does not matter. But it does put the Bakken into perspective for some folks. Like me. [Ryder Scott, June-August 2011, Vol 14, No 2, states that "a total organic carbon (TOC) of 2 percent is considered a sufficient screening criterion for oil shale plays. However, both the Bakken and Arthur Creek ["Northern Territory, Australia] have been reported to contain much higher TOCs. Greater TOC and shale thicknesses are correlated to higher production." -- Ryder Scott. See comments below.]

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And It Might Be Better Than We Think

Now, something new. First of all, repeating:

 "The upper and lower shale members are the primary source rocks for the Bakken TPS, with present-day total organic carbon (TOC) values from less than 1 weight percent to 35 weight percent (Lillis, 2013)."

I recently received a personal note from a Bakken operator who suggests that someday operators will "crack the code" how to economically exploit the source rock, the upper and lower shale members. 

If that happens, "Katie, bar the door."

The Dreadnoughts
Oil tanker coming up the Missouri -- setting sail for the Confluence!

With regard to the Dreadnoughts over at YouTube, one of the comments:

If anything the band was named after the song, not saying it was... But "The Dreadnought" was a sea shanty most probably written and sung by sailors upon a packet ship named; (yep) "The Dreadnought".

Given that the ship sank in 1869 off of Cape Horn, I would argue that the song was around long before the band and their cover of it.

Having read twice Gavin Menzies' first book and now reading for the second time his second book, I have great respect for the Dreadnought sailors (and all sailors who have doubled Cape Horn, including Captain Magellan). I also feel I "know" Cape Horn" a whole lot better and it's no surprise that the Dreadnought sunk of Cape Horn (assuming, of course, that's accurate).

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 19, 2019

I thought the Permian boom was over. Weren't there stories just a few weeks ago that things were slowing down in the Permian? Whatever. Link to this story here. Also at zerohedge.

I thought the Permian boom was over, part 2:

From the linked Bloomberg story via Rigzone:

The New York city area may boast the largest share of personal income in the U.S., but pay is growing the fastest in the much smaller oil-boom towns of Odessa and Midland, Texas.

Indeed, Midland’s per capita personal income of more than $122,000 a year was higher than that of San Jose, San Francisco, Boston or New York last year.

Midland and Odessa -- bases for Permian basin shale production -- have benefited from a boom that last year drove the U.S. to surpass Russia to become the world’s largest oil producer.

Still, personal income in the New York-Newark-Jersey City area last year rose to almost $1.5 trillion, or 8.3% of the U.S. total -- the largest share in the U.S. The NYC metro area was followed by Los Angeles with a 4.8% share and Chicago at 3.3%. Among the top 20 largest, Denver surpassed Riverside, California for the 18th spot last year.

For the fifth year in a row, metropolitan areas in the U.S. outpaced rural and small towns in per capita personal income -- total pay divided by population.

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Backyard News

McKesson: previously posted, about a year ago. Company's headquarters moving from San Francisco to "a suburb of Dallas." Apparently that move is now taking place. Headline story of 329 folks at San Francisco headquarters who elected not to move to Texas. I was curious -- exactly to which Dallas suburb is McKesson moving. I see why the name of the suburb was not mentioned. It's a bit confusing. The company is moving to a "planned community" inside the city of Irving, TX, pretty much in between (and north) of Dallas/Ft Worth. The "planned community" is Las Colinas.

Las Colinas? Sounds like a city in southern California or Arizona or New Mexico. I had never heard of it. Here's the wiki entry. Very, very interesting. It turns out the city is closer to my apartment than it is to Dallas or Ft Worth. It's literally just down the road from where we live. I could bike there if the twelve-lane divided highways weren't such a problem between my house and Las Colinas.

The migration of businesses to Texas is truly incredible.

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The Vikings
For The Granddaughters

The names of the three long-ships that excited the "Viking Age" literature:

• the Tune ship, unearthed at Rolvsøy, 1867; dated to about 900 AD
• the Gokstad ship, unearthed at Sandar in Vestfold, 1880; overshadowed the Tune find
• the granddaddy of them all, the Oseberg ship, unearthed at Slagen in Vestfold, 1904; dated to about 820 A.D. based on tree-ring dating; the ship's active life ended in 834 A.D., when her presumptive owner died

820 A.D. -- this would be about the same time as Constantinople reaching mid-life as a Christian city. About a century after the burial of this ship (834 A.D.),

On the other side of the Viking world from Oseberg and the Norwegian Vestfold and about a century later, the Arab diplomat and Islamic teacher Ibn Fadlan noted down his detailed description of the rites surrounding the cremation of a Viking chieftain on the banks of the Volga which he witnessed in 921.

When I was in eighth grade, my dad took my grandfather (Paul Oksol) and me to Norway. The trip to Oslo-Trondheim-Bergen-Copenhagen-Berlin-Luxembourg-Paris took lasted about three weeks I suppose. Maybe only two weeks but it was a long trip measured by everything we saw.

Early in the trip -- perhaps the first "thing" we visited  --  we were taken to the museum where one or all (?) of these long ships were on display having been restored to pristine condition. At the time I did not know what the big deal was. Things are now starting to fit together. What a great story.

My three books for the week:

• Lost To The West: The Forgotten Byzantine Empire That Rescued Western Civilization, Lars Brownworth, c. 2009.
• The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009.
• And I'm re-reading 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2008.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+16 -- May 24, 2018

Cars. I'm traveling. When possible, I rent from Enterprise. About two years ago a new "neighborhood" Enterprise went up in our neighborhood -- it's on my bicycle route. Four rentals ago, it was a Ford cross-over; it was okay, but not great. Three rentals ago, it was a Nissan Rogue; awesome; if I was in the market for a new crossover SUV, I would consider a Rogue .Two rentals ago, it was a compact, but I actually forget what it was, but similar to a Honda Civic, I suppose. This time, a Chevy Sonic. I love it. This is definitely something I would consider as a replacement for my Honda Civic. My problem: I've grown to trust the quality of Honda so much I doubt I could ever switch. Interestingly enough, this 2018 (2019?) Sonic appears to get worse highway mileage (about 33 mpg) than my 2012 Honda Civic (which I bought in 2011), which gets about 40 mpg. I have to admit, I generally drive a rental faster than I drive my Honda civic.

Sirius: I never thought I would see the day that I actually said I listened to Sirius XM Radio, much less say I really enjoyed it. With the Enterprise rental, I get Sirius XM Radio for free. Quite incredible. I can listen to CNBC (112) and then alternate with best music from the 50s, 60s, and 70s (#5, #6, and #7, respectively. I had some incredibly long stretches of driving in some very, very remote areas and was quite thankful for Sirius. I never thought I would say that. But, having said that, Sirius XMR has "its place" and I don't need it for local driving.

Odometers: I cannot remember ever trading a car in for a new car. I generally drive a car to the end. The first car I ever had, a '73 Chevy Nova SS, I gave away when the US Air Force transferred me to Germany. My dad bought me the car in 1973, and we were transferred to Germany in 1983. The two Saabs that we had overseas were also pretty much given away before we came back to the US after 13 years being overseas. One was left in Turkey; one was sold to another airman in Belgium when we left Europe. The highest odometer reading: 198,000 miles on a Chrysler minivan before I donated it to charity (and, no, I never took any tax write-off) -- the transmission finally gave out. So, I thought I was doing pretty good. Then a DJ on Sirius XMR said he had put on 450,000 miles on his car -- never mentioned the make/model. Now I have a new goal for my Honda Civic. So, we'll see.

Tesla: Musk says he can drop the price of one of his cars (I forget which) by $14,000 if China cuts its tariffs. This just shows how onerous the Chinese auto tariffs are. Chinese auto tariffs? 25%. But I believe I recall reading that Denmark's tariff is 100%. US automobile tariffs: 2.5%. Yes, the decimal is in the correct spot.

Separate but equal: Starbucks homeless shelters. In response to a comment, Scott Adams weighed in on Starbucks and their "new" bathroom policy. Scott Adams predicts that Starbucks will eventually place stand-along bathrooms for public use adjacent to, but separate and detached from the Starbucks cafe itself. Starbucks would only need to do this in certain locations. Some have argued that Starbucks will shutter many of its cafes that have bathrooms. Scott Adams disagrees: he thinks there will be more bathrooms -- separate but equal -- rather than fewer bathrooms.  I disagree. Obviously Scott Adams is much smarter than I and he is most likely correct, and I will be proved wrong, but its clear that Starbucks customers are moving to drive-through; app ordering and pick-up; Uber/Lyft/Dash delivery; and, that sit-down in the cafe is minimal. In a problematic area in east Portland (near the Portland/Gresham city line), there is a Starbucks that has no inside seating. So, we'll see.

Feinstein: I see she is running for re-election for another full six-year US Senate term. She is 84 years old. Rumors are she is running to set herself up for running for California governor at age 90, and then US President at 94. She will probably face off against Hillary in the 2028 Democratic primary for president. That's really not that far away, 2028, is it?

China. I'm in a remote, undisclosed location which I will talk about at a later date. I'm in a very nice hotel, paid for by another, and something to which I am not accustomed. When traveling cross-country, I generally sleep in the car or in $49/night roadside motels that have not been renovated since Lucille Ball last stayed there. Coming down to the lobby yesterday afternoon, three people, whom I assume were Chinese -- I don't want to be accused of profiling, but a) they were speaking Chinese; and, b) they appeared not to be Scandinavian. I was actually carrying my very, very used copy of 1421: The Year China Discovered America, by Gavin Menzies. I showed them the book I was reading, and, now that I know a limited amount of Chinese geography, I asked if they were from Hong Kong, Canton, Nanking, or Beijing (it was obvious they were not from Macao). The "leader" of the three replied, "Yes." And we moved on. This morning, the petite (and I hope that's not being sexist) and quite attractive (and, yes, I suppose that is sexist) woman of the group came down for coffee. I don't know if the Chinese discovered America or not in 1421, but it appears the three have discovered Sturgis, SD. She was wearing a Harley-Davidson leather jacket. I assume she was "corporate" -- I would have joined her for breakfast but I did not want to be seen as being too forward. As I'm writing this, the Chinese gentleman who said he was from "Hong Kong, Canton, Nanking, and Beijing" has just walked in. Very distinguished gentleman in a yuppie sort of way. I can't imagine him on a hog (or is it "Hog"), but I also never imagined running into "him" here in this remote location.

Stock market: I love this market. I would write more but not in the mood.

WTI: fascinating to say the least. It's down again today, now trading below $71. I assume we will start seeing articles with these headlines:

• price of oil could plummet to $20 -- Goldman Sachs
• is this the end for oil? -- Art Berman
• why oil will still go to $140 -- Goldman Sachs
• Schumer wants Big Oil to pay state income tax for all NY state residents -- NY Times
• Trump and Russian mistress tried to corner oil market in 1973 -- Vanity Fair
• no more hedging; we learned our lesson in 2012 -- Harold Hamm in Williston Herald
• $10 gasoline by August 10, 2018 -- former Shell president John Hofmeister
• never too late to plant a garden -- Michelle Obama, in Home and Garden
• go big, go Bobcat, when tilling that garden -- Barack Obama, in Progressive Farmer (yes, that really exists) 
• global warming increases risk of earthquakes, replay of "San Francisco - 1906" -- Los Angeles Times
• Mueller accuses President Trump of using SUVs for transportation when in Washington; House GOP wants proof -- CNN
• you, too, deserve a new SUV -- O, The Oprah Magazine
• WTI soars on new Iran sanctions, up 3 cents -- oilprice.com
• Jeff Bezos to buy ExxonMobil; will offer free gasoline to Prime members -- The Washington Post
• Starbucks to buy Conoco, citing clean bathrooms as key to deal -- Oil & Gas Journal
• flashback: John Kerry centerfold -- Playgirl
• "Stormy" interview -- Playboy
• your first trip in a Tesla could be to Venus; we've already done Mars -- Elon Musk in Scientific American

Back On The Road Again -- On The Road To Australia -- June 9, 2018

Screenshot of concern:

Some time ago we were following the "electric grid" in Australia pretty closely. I haven't thought about Australia in some time. I assume it's autumn and the "electric grid" should be doing quite well. But apparently I was wrong.

Before getting in that, I'm bringing myself up to date by clicking on the tag at the bottom of the blog, "Road to Australia."

To keep this in perspective, the average price of electricity in the US is about $100 / MWH.

In New South Wales, Australia, recently, the average price of electricity is about $300 / MWH and in the last few weeks has been spiking to $14,000 / MWH. NSW is the most populous state in Australia -- with two-thirds of the country's population; its capital is Sydney.

It is also the home of a number of coal-fired utility plants and aluminum smelters.

The link regarding the $14,000 / MWH spike comes from a site that has followed this closely. I was curious if perhaps the site was "crying wolf." A quick google search brought me to this article, from June 8, 2018, yesterday: Australia's largest aluminum (sic) smelter warns of "energy crisis" as power supply falters.

Tomago Aluminium, Australia's biggest smelter of the metal, warned on Friday that it faced curtailing operations for a third time this week because of power shortages across the national electricity market.

As of Friday afternoon, NSW plants reporting outages or reduced output included the gas-fired Tullawarra power station, Mt Piper coal-fired power plant - both owned by EnergyAustralia.

Also reporting coal-fired power units offline were Sunset Power's Vales Point and AGL's two Hunter Valley stations, Bayswater and Liddell.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued an actual lack of reserve alert at 5.44 pm only to cancel it 23 minutes later after the market responded with extra supply - and demand eased back ahead of the long weekend.

There are at least three issues here:

• the role coal will (or won't) continue to play in a land where faux environmentalists are in control
• the mix of renewable energy vs fossil-fuel energy for generating electricity
• the lack of understanding, apparently, that renewable energy is not dispatchable; and, storage technology is yet a long way off (and/or very, very expensive in itself)

A fourth issue:

• the Australian grid issue sounds very much like the "oil issue" in Venezuela
• Venezuela sits on the world's largest reserve of oil (and the right kind of oil) and failed this past week to meet its contractual obligations due to central government policies
• Australia sits on some of the world's greatest coal reserves, and  cannot meet electricity demands due to central government policies

A fifth issue:

• if large utility plants fail (for whatever reason) and if aluminum smelters and steel plants fail (for whatever reason) they are unlikely to ever come back -- if they do come back, they won't come back for years -- others may disagree, but it's a huge gamble

Even worse news for the Australians, or at least two-thirds of Australians and their heavy industry  is the fact that politicians appear not ready to solve the problem, but rather are looking at whom to blame. The fact that politicians are looking to blame rather than solve, one suspects this problem will only get worse.

There would be nothing better that Canada would like to see than US aluminum and steel plants get shut down. Along with China, the two countries would have incredible pricing power, affecting everything from the US military to Boeing to American automobile manufacturers.

I don't know the statistics but my hunch is that it is not without good cause Presendent Trump has suggested that a robust steel and aluminum industry in the US is a national security issue.

Not mentioned is the quality and/or specifications of the required steel and aluminum.

In the short term, the viability of the US steel and aluminum industry is at risk if unfair trade practices continue. The big question, of course: if we want "free" trade, why are their any tariffs at all among the G7 countries, China, India, Australia, and so on?

In the long term, even if President Trump is able to save the US steel and aluminum industry by creating a level (or a more level) playing field, if the US takes the Road to Australia with renewable energy, it may not matter at all.

Joke of the day:

Some in Australia want to "fix" the "dispatchable" problem of renewable energy with more non-dispatchable renewable energy:

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A Reminder And Another Inconvenient Truth 

Today (20th century) it is completely impossible, even for a nuclear-powered icebreaker, to circumnavigate Greenland, for the seas surrounding the far north are frozen solid all year around.

However, there is direct evidence that conditions in the early fifteenth century were markedly different from those existing today, suggesting that Greenland could have been circumnavigated by the Vikings. -- 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, 2002, pp. 349 - 350.