Five New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- April 30, 2026

Locator: 50677B.

WTI: $106.90. Up $7.00 today. 

Active rigs: 23.

Five new permits,  #42885 - #42890:

• Operators: Devon Energy (2); Whiting (2); Enerplus Resources;
• Fields: Foreman Butte (4), McKenzie County; Lone Tree Lake, Williams County; 
• Comments:
• Devon Energy has permits for two Albert South wells, NENE 34-151-102, 
• to be sited 1220 / 1224 FNL and 897 / 922 FEL
• Whiting her permits for two Roosevelt Federal wells, NWNE 24-150-103, 
• to be sited 478 /609 FNL and 1581 / 1590 FEL; both six-section spacing;
• Enerplus has a permit for an Opsal well, SESW 11-157-99, 
• to be sited 347 FSL and 2278 FWL; Williams County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: 

• 41869, 190, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S614HF, Divide County;
• 41870, 739, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S516HF, Divide County;
• 41927, 351, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S512HF, Divide County;
• 41931, 351, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S618HF, Divide County;

Thoughts On Apple's Numbers Today -- March, 2026, Quarter -- Subject To Change -- Posted April 30, 2026

Locator: 50676AAPL.

Subject to change; not proofread. Typed "on the go."  

See disclaimer. 

This is for the extended family; not meant for general readership. These are early thoughts. Not ready for prime time. 

As my family surely knows, I am inappropriately exuberant about Apple. Members of my family, no doubt, are very curious what I think about Apple's earnings for the March, 2026, quarter reported today.

My thoughts apply only to those who are wondering whether to invest in AAPL after these numbers were reported.  

These numbers make it the easiest to ever answer with regard to Apple / AAPL. 

The numbers reported were somewhere between "excellent" numbers and "Goldilocks" numbers. 

My advice to any individual depends on what kind of trader / investor the individual is.

For traders hoping for a huge return within one year: these numbers are not enough to make me want to invest in AAPL. There are too many other opportunities. So, that was easy enough to answer.

However, if one is an investor with a 30-year horizon, Apple / AAPL needs to be in your portfolio if you are investing in individual stocks. I won't get into whether one should be investing in individual companies; that's another question, another discussion.

The best news: the earnings were not exciting enough to cause a surge in the price of AAPL. In fact, at the time this is being typed, AAPL is down slightly from its high earlier today and is actually "negative" for the day. 

Holy mackerel, I take that back. I just checked, 4:49 p.m. CT, and AAPL is up $9.93 / share. [Later, up around $6.50 / share.]

All of a sudden this now becomes a much more difficult question. 

Had AAPL opened flat or negative in the morning, I was going to say that I would add a significant amount of my existing AAPL holdings or open a new position in Apple. 

But now that AAPL is up $10 and if it opens up $10 tomorrow morning, I would wait. Only if AAPL pulls back to $170 would I buy AAPL shares. Clearly, if AAPL opens in the upper 170s or higher, I would not buy AAPL. 

There would be nothing wrong with buying AAPL at $180 tomorrow, but that's "your" choice. It would not be the worst thing one could do but you might question your decision over the next six months.

So, back to these being "Goldilocks" numbers. 

These are incredible numbers for the Apple company, for long-term investors, for employees, for those whose portfolio is overweighted in AAPL.

In order of importance, at least to some degree:

1. Had the earnings "blown out" expectations and had the shares surged 10%, it would be a formidable challenge for the new CEO. Wow, he would have been under a lot of pressure to perform. These are "Goldilocks" numbers for the new CEO. The numbers tell "everyone" that Apple is sound, and the new CEO, John Ternus, only needs to remain steady at the helm.

2. The iPhone was introduced in 2007. That's eighteen years ago and Apple's margins actually rose from 48.4 to 49.3 -- I don't think there's any product that's been on the market for almost two decades whose margins continue to grow. And we're not talking from 5% to 6% -- we're taking margins that approach 50% after almost twenty years. 

 3. The meme for the past dozen years is that Apple's profits are all about the iPhone (hardware/software). People who are actually paying attention know that services for Apple are becoming increasingly important, and this quarter, Apple's profits from services were actually greater than profits from the iPhone (I need to check out exactly what was being compared.) This will actually become more important if a) Apple's supply chain breaks down; and/or, b) memory prices quadruple in price as is being projected. [I might come back to this; it appears that Apple is doing an outstanding job managing their numbers, their profits.]

4.  Apple pays a dividend. It's not much but for those who have held AAPL for a long time, it adds up and for new investors, at least there's a dividend, more than what most tech companies can say.

5. AAPL has "done nothing" for the past couple of years -- absolutely flat. This simply can't go on forever. At some point, investors will get the clue bug with regard to AAPL.

6. Apple is an incredibly well-run company; no one expects this to change. If one agrees, it becomes a no-brainer for investors with 30-year horizons to have this stock in their portfolio. If I'm wrong on this, I would like to know the names of ten other companies that would make a better choice for a long-term investor.  

I could go on, but ....

Bottom line:

• traders with a short horizon (less than a. year) and looking for a quick profit or bragging rights to selecting a winner, do not buy AAPL based on today's news;
• investors with a long horizon, at least ten years and preferably 30 years, starting a new position in AAPL or adding to a position in AAPL, this is a no-brainer, although I would be watching for pull back to $170. If it doesn't pull back to $170, I might forgo APPL -- there are plenty of other options. But even at $180, ten years from now, that's going to look pretty inexpensive. 

Final thoughts:

• these are incredibly good numbers; 
• putting the whole story together, as good as these numbers are, they are still "Goldilocks" numbers;
• forget everything I said with regard to price point: ten years from now, whether you bought at $170 or $180, it's not going to matter;
• just stick to your investing rules;
• as for me, I will be adding as many shares as I can afford tomorrow.  

Again, these the blog's disclaimer: this is not meant for the general reader; it's for my extended family to let them know what I'm doing. This is not an investment site. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.

Longer version here.   

Whoo-Hoo! There's A Golf Tournament On -- I Don't Have To Watch CNBC, CNN, Or ABC News -- April 30, 2016

Locator: 50675AAPL.

After Hours -- AAPL

AAPL: turned sharply lower just before the close. Does someone know something? Was there a "tell'? Or simply profit-taking at last opportunity. Big players can take their profits; sit on those profits and wait for the inevitable pull back. BREAKING -- crossing now --  it looks like after hours, AAPL may settle slightly up after the close -- 50 cents to a buck higher. 

• beat on top and bottom
• EPS: $2.01 vs $1.95: a record for the March quarter
• revenue: $111.2 vs $109.66
• iPhone: second miss in three quarters
• services: record 
• cash hoard: $146.60 billion 
• compare with BRK with about $373 billion in cash, 4Q25, 
• slightly lower than $382 billion in 3Q25
• comment: these are not numbers that get analysts truly excited especially after all the hype; 
• appear to be within numbers being whispered about on Wall Street
• not the wild numbers that some were suggesting 
• this was definitely not a blow-out quarter for folks who really don't understand Apple
• gross margin: 49.3 vs 48.4; at the higher end of guidance for margin -- "49" handle vs "48" handle
• simply phenomenal
• greatest supply chain vs anyone else
• Tim Cook's expertise 
• increases dividend by 4% to 27 cents / share + buyback $100 billion 
• dividend: Apple actually doing something Warren Buffett forever refused to do 

Original Post 

Near the close:

BRK-B: holy mackerel! BRK is down today and the US equity markets are surging. Motley Fool is still telling investors BRK looks like a buy. Okay.  

Trump golf: 

The 2026 Cadillac Championship begins today, April 30, at Trump National Doral’s Blue Monster in Miami, featuring a $20 million purse. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +290. Early first-round leaders include Scottie Scheffler, Sahith Theegala, Billy Harman, and Cameron Young at -3.

Locator: 50675ARCHIVES.

News: 

This is going to be the most news-filled day in a long time. I may note headlines for the archives, but I have no plans to write much about anything until later this evening, once I've been able to digest everything, including the darkened shrimp taco I had for lunch, along with an Old-Fashioned. So rare do I have a cocktail, it's worth posting. LOL.

Okay, the news:

TSA is funded. My flight is fine! 

Epstein's suicide note is locked up by a judge. Whoo-hoo! This will drive The NY Times crazy.

WTI: sinking! Now, trading just above $105. It had been as high as $108.

LIV golfers: not being welcomed back by the PGA.

Blockade: NACHO. [Not a chance Hormuz opens.]

US markets: off to the races.

AAPL: reports later today. Only one more hour.

What's important for Charles III: Scotch. Trump vows to remove all tariffs on Scottish whiskey following meetings with Camille's husband.

California: Valero ends production of gasoline at the Benicia refinery northeast of San Francisco. Provided upwards of 10% of California's gasoline demand.

 

***************************
The AI Bubble

Mark has had enough: will removes Meta apps from New Mexico if state's demands are unreasonable.

Beth: SK Hyix -- planning to invest $13 billion for an advanced packaging plant in South Korea to meet rising demand for AI memory chips.

GOOG: up more than 10% today.

Earnings after hours today: eleven. Only one matters.

AAPL, whispers -- quarterly earnings, history -- 

• forecast: 
• EPS: $1.94
• revenue: $109.7 billion
• history, of note
• March quarter always the second/third best 
• June quarter always the worse
• Sept quarter always the second / third worst
• December quarter always the best
• recently
• the best quarter in 2021 reported EPS of $1.93

Idle Rambling -- The "Bubble" -- April 30, 2026

Locator: 50674BUBBLE.

By the way, before we get started: 

There's a great documentary on Peggy Guggenheim on YouTube -- I became interested in her story after reading about the Guggenheims in Malcolm Harris' book on Palo Alto --  she ultimately became, if not the richest -- practically the richest women in the world -- and she did it on her own pretty much without the Guggenheim money. 

Puts a lot of our anxiety into perspective.

In another side-bar discussion with a reader, not ready for prime time. 

The reader asked about "the AI bubble," on a day CAT explodes to the upside by 10%, gaining $80 /share because of the work it is doing for LDCs.

My reply, again not ready for prime time.  

With regard to the AI bubble setting us up for a crash, I asked the same question to Grok, ChatGPT, and Gemini.

The question (to each of the three chatbots): 

This is just a throwaway query. I'm not concerned. Doesn't affect my life at all, investing or otherwise. I'm just curious how you see it.

Looking back, there was a lot of talk comparing the crash of 1929 with the 2000 dot-com crash, but in the big scheme of things, the dot-com crash was nowhere near the crash of 1929. Now, we're talking about the AI bubble that will echo the 1929 crash. At the same point in the 2020 dot-com euphoria as we have now, were things, looking back, more problematic in 2020 or are they more problematic now?

The replies:

Grok couldn't provide an answer because it was under "heavy demand" and I don't pay for a subscription (which, by the way, speaks volumes). [I don't pay for any chatbot.]

Gemini agreed with you: we are setting ourselves up for a crash.

ChatGPT: not even close to a crash. Structurally things are so much different than either the 2000 dot-com bust or the 1929 crash. 

ChatGPT gave a much better explanation -- won't go into details. 

But I'm not a bit worried. 

The fact that Grok couldn't even answer because it didn't have enough "compute" -- as they call it -- tells me there is so much demand for AI -- I mean seriously -- Elon Musk doesn't have enough "compute" -- because too much demand. Give me a break!  

And in market share, I think Grok is about 1% with ChatGPT and Gemini sharing 90% combined. 

I'm still reading the history of Stanford University / Palo Alto / Silicon Valley by Malcolm Harris and the military relationship with AI is so incredible -- it cannot be overstated.   The Black Swan, if there is one, will be a shortage of rare earths or a shortage of fabs (in this case, storage, first -- MU -- and then CPUs (TSM -- 90%?).

The focus of Xi - Trump's visit this summer is going to be Taiwan. 

So, unless there's a Black Swan, something we didn't see coming, like a) an asteroid hitting Wall Street; b) a shortage of rare earths which really wouldn't be a Black Swan because we've known about this issue for years; and/or, c) China moving aggressively on Taiwan, which I don't see happening. 

China needs Taiwan's fabs and technology as much as we do. The worst that will happen will be a velvet glove takeover of Taiwan by China. That's how it will start: if Taiwan tries to fight it and US / Japan go to nukes to stop China, then all bets are off. 

But again, I was amazed. Grok -- denial of service -- because it was too busy or simply doesn't want to help me because I'm not a paying subscriber. That speaks volumes where we are with regard to how many Nvidia blades Elon Musk still needs to buy from Huang Jensen.

The State Dinner -- Re-Visited -- April 30, 2026

Locator: 50673BURGUM.

In another side-bar discussion with a reader, not ready for prime time. 

This is so much better than The NY Times assessment of the guest list. From earlier: 

White House dinner. 

So, who attended? Link here. Here it is. 

Wow: Doug Burgum and wife. Of the Trumps, only Barron missing.

To the reader: 

1. We have not even begun to see how big the [global] realignment will be [after the Iran War]. Folks forget that in the Mideast, Persia is the outcast -- and made worse by the revolution in 1979. Leaving OPEC, UAE will need friends and the only friend it will have is the US. Their relationship will be very, very quiet. 

2. The royal / state dinner was probably the dinner of Trump's four-year term. I'm trying to think of someone more "important" than Charles and Camilla showing up in Washington.

Xi and/or Putin would be more important from a strategic / military / diplomatic point of view, but from a purely TMZ / Vanity Fair / social point of view, the British monarchy beats them all. Interestingly, the Brits are pretty much washed up as force to be reckoned with. 

Even Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has more cajones than either the PM or the King. And probably more ships. 

2a. Only 100 people were on the guest list. Not one Democrat and not one left-leaning reporter was there. Six (seven, depending how you count) were from Fox, including Gutfeld! That was a huge embarrassment to legacy television news.  This was the White House Correspondents' Dinner that wasn't. LOL. Except for four (?) Brits, not one Brit was invited. It was all Trump's most important friends. If you were on that list you are never going to jail. For anything. Six billionaires -- including Ellison, his closest friend, I think. But then this: Tim Cook. I ran through the list fairly quickly so I probably missed others, but Tim Cook stood out .... not even the CEO of Intel was there. Tim Cook. Let that sink in.

2b. These were the folks from Silicon Valley: Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff: CEO of Salesforce, attending with Lynne Benioff, Marc Andreessen, Ruth Porat: President and CIO of Alphabet and Google; and Ellison, as mentioned. That's a pretty select group. No room for Musk? Altman? 

2c. CEO of Archer Daniels Midland. Only one reason why he was there.

2d. But look at this: all the Trumps were there except Barron which meant of the 100 or so guests, 10% were Trumps.

2e. I think they said six of the Supreme Court justices were there. Not one from the left.

2f. Maybe half a dozen US Senators; most from western states, or deeply conservative states. None from Texas? 

2g. Kraft (NFL, Patriots); Rory McIlroy! Trump likes winners.

2h. Hegseth and Caine, of course. 

2i. The four astronauts and their significant others would have totaled eight -- would have overshadowed the Trumps, and at the end of the day, walk-on-baggage. The Artemis II mission, not the significant others.

2j. But this is what really caught my attention: the total number of cabinet-level appointees often exceeds 20, including roles like the Chief of Staff and EPA Administrator. Of those 20, only a handful were invited. Among the handful: Doug Burgum! He easily could have been left out and no one would have noticed. [Apparently he's not a billionaire but he's considered to be in the "billionaire class." Forbes has him at $100 million or thereabouts.] I don't think Litnick was there. So, I find it amazing that Doug Burgum was there. No one from intelligence services? 

Movers and shakers: Rory, Kraft, a few others are NOT political movers and shakers. They were there for other reasons. But Doug Burgum was there. Wright, Energy, was not there. That speaks volumes -- Energy not there; Commerce not there but Interior was there. Why? 

I think folks underestimate the importance of a strong secretary at Interior. 

Under Biden: 

Deb Haaland, first Native American to serve as a Cabinet secretary; DEI.
Obama: Sally Jewell (CEO of REI); Ken Salazar (Colorado Senator)
Clinton: Babbitt, governor of Arizona.

Power politics. It will be a different list of attendees for Xi and/or Putin. You know, this state dinner now completely overshadows the WHCD "re-do." Assuming it is re-done. A lot of folks will say that box was checked off.