Saturday, March 14, 2026

The Strait Is Open -- Polymarket - 5:00 p.m. CT -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50226EPICFURY.

March 14, 2026, 5:00 p.m.:

This is what can be achieved when the president has credibility. Apparently just the thought that Trump might take Kharg Island with 2,500 US Marines was enough to bring Iran to their senses. 

This could be an interesting turn of events for the Sunday morning news shows if reported accurately that Iran has opened the strait to all vessels other than American or Israeli: 

  • two days ago: Iran doubles down on closing the strait.
  • yesterday: Iran says vessels paying in Chinese currency will have safe passages
  • early today: Iran says Indian vessels will have safe passage through the strait
  • later today: Iran says all vessels except those of Israel and America have safe passage though the strait.

The new supreme leader, the son of the former supreme leader was said to be more "hardline" than his father and just days earlier double-downed keeping the strait closed, while increasing attacks on all countries in the region. All of a sudden -- a 180-degree turn -- announcing the strait is open, suggests that the new supreme leader is greatly compromised one way or another. This was completely unexpected -- an announcement by the Iranians that the strait is now open.

This is absolutely fascinating.  

Bashur Air Base -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50225BASHUR.

Wiki


 

The US Marines -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50224KHARG.

Updates

March 14, 2026:

  • two days ago, Iran doubled down, saying as long as the US and Israel continued bombing, Iran would keep the strait closed;
  • yesterday: Iran said that countries who paid in Chinese currency would be allowed to transit the strait;
  • today: Iran said that Indians vessels would be allowed to transit the strait.

Anyone noticing a trend here. I still maintain that back-channel diplomacy, Iran is taking the threat of an international peace force to take control of Kharg Island is a very real possibility. Meanwhile, the Kurds are an hour away from Tehran.

By the way: mines? Trump said the Iranians were not laying mines in the strait. I don't know, but I do know that mines can't tell the difference between those vessels that pay in Chinese currency and those that don't; and, can't tell Indian vessels from non-Indian vessels. 

And, oh, by the way, the Houthis? Where are they? Where have they been?

Original Post 

Link here. Be sure to read the thread. 


Has anyone asked the question why any Arab country or member of GCC hasn't politely asked the US to declare victory and leave?  Re-posting:

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Strait Security

My hunch: behind the scenes, the US diplomatic team is talking with Qatar, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia about the need for maintaining security in the strait. It's considered "international waters" by the UN and the UN is tasked with keeping the strait safe, secure and open. 

My hunch: someone in the Mideast will step up to the task, most likely Saudi Arabia. It would be Qatar, but Qatar is simply too small and, oh, by the way, that's where the Hamas leadership resides in comfort. So, it will be Saudi Arabia with a young prince, eager to do these things, who will step up to the task -- but like William Shakespeare, the Saudi prince will simply be the factotum, the front man. The default organization: the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, also known as the Gulf Cooperation Council, is a regional, intergovernmental, political, and economic union and military alliance comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.[

The council's main headquarters is located in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.The Charter of the GCC was signed on 25 May 1981, formally establishing the institution. 

All current member states are monarchies, including three constitutional monarchies (Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain), two absolute monarchies (Saudi Arabia and Oman), and one federal monarchy (the United Arab Emirates, which is composed of seven member states, each of which is an absolute monarchy with its own emir). 

There have been discussions regarding the future membership of Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen. Iraq is the only Gulf Arab state that is not a GCC member.

Iran is not a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) primarily because the organization was established in 1981, following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, as a security and political bloc of Arab monarchies designed specifically to counter Iran’s regional influence and ideological expansion. Fundamental ideological, geopolitical, and security differences divide them.

This is also one of the reasons that the Arab countries have not politely asked the US to declare victory and go home. 

The GCC has long wanted to see Iran answer for its misdeeds, and never wants Iran to have nuclear weapons. They now know they have been right since 1979.

Now that Iran has used the "nuclear option" to close the strait, the GCC is more united than ever. 

Remember the deals that were made between the US and Saudi Arabia after the CHIPS Act and Trump's overtures; we could very well see the same thing on the economic and political front with regard to the strait. 

Even more interesting, China is 1000% in support of maintaining a safe, secure, and open strait. 

Russia, not so much, but will play along to get along now that's it's tied down in Ukraine.  

Along with Texas, Saudi may ultimately be another winner of this war. 

AI Market Share -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50223AI.

Link here

Venture Global -- RBN Energy -- One Year Ago -- Re-Posting -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50222VG.

Compare this chart with the chart at the bottom of the blog.

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Re-Posting

This was from a year ago, January 29, 2025, link here

Locator: 48428RBNVG.

RBN Energy: assessing Venture Global's assets in the wake of its $1.75 billion IPO. Archived.

Venture Global put U.S. LNG on center stage after going public on January 24. The company, now listed as VG on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), launched one of the largest initial public offerings (IPO) in U.S. energy history. The IPO shares were priced at $25 each, raising $1.75 billion but valuing the company at $60 billion, a significant drop from the company’s initial target of up to $110 billion. While Venture Global was able to capitalize on some truly fantastic timing, going public just as President Trump took office and lifted the export permit ban, the market remains cautious about LNG and the energy sector. While Trump will certainly smooth the path at least somewhat to new LNG buildout, lawsuits and regulatory hurdles won’t simply disappear overnight. In addition to the general regulatory uncertainty facing the industry, there is also the matter of Venture Global’s contentious relationship with its original customers: Shell, BP and others have brought arbitration cases against the company that have yet to be resolved. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at Venture Global, its assets and what its IPO says about U.S. LNG. 

Venture Global is one of the largest players in U.S. LNG, with the 10-MMtpa (1.32 Bcf/d) Calcasieu Pass operational, although still technically commissioning (more on that shortly); the 20-MMtpa (2.65 Bcf/d) Plaquemines LNG under construction or commissioning now; CP2 in the late stages of development and nearing a final investment decision (FID); and two more speculative projects to pursue after CP2. Between Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines, the company will own and operate 30 MMtpa (4 Bcf/d) by the end of 2027, leaving it second to only Cheniere Energy when it comes to U.S. LNG output (see King Creole for more on the big three players in U.S. LNG). And with more projects in the queue, Venture Global is obviously shooting for Cheniere’s crown. All of Venture Global’s LNG projects use midscale modular technology rather than traditional large-scale trains, promising investors shorter construction timelines and requiring less startup capital to build these smaller, factory-fabricated, but scalable units.

Venture Global took FID on its first U.S. LNG terminal, Calcasieu Pass, in August 2019, although the project had been under construction since February of that year. The terminal has 18 mini trains, grouped into nine blocks, for a total nameplate capacity of 10 MMtpa (1.32 Bcf/d) and an expected peak capacity of 12.4 MMtpa (1.64 Bcf/d). Nameplate capacity is what is guaranteed by the design of the project by the engineering partners, but all LNG terminals have the ability to produce above that level.