Freight Train, Freight, Going So Fast -- April 3, 2023

Locator: 44300B.

I'm heading to bed. I'm exhausted. It's been a long day.

But first, just some random thoughts.

Can you imagine how all those folks -- including investors -- who hate Big Oil feel today?  I don't know if I've ever had a better day in the market. [“Surprise cut” by OPEC. WTI jumps from $74 $80.]

Governor Newsom blaming US Big Oil for gouging Americans at the pump? LOL.

Janet Yellen saying it was "unconstructive" for OPEC+ to surprise "us" with a production cut, which in the big scheme of things is a million-bopd cut when global demand is running at 100 million bopd. Give me a break. Incentivize US oil companies to drill in North America and see what happens.

Regardless, I'm in a great mood. 

But frankly, I'm surprised that taking one million bopd of crude oil off the global market had such a big effect on the American stock market. 

And remember it gets worse: June 23, 2023, when WTI oil is physically added to Brent.  

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Things Are Going Too Fast

This is the music only version of the trailer for ASTEROID CITY (2023), with everything except music (eg. dialog, sound effects) removed as well. Presented in 4K. Featuring the songs: 

 ➤ "Last Train to San Fernando" by Johnny Duncan 

➤ "Freight Train" by Chas McDevitt and Nancy Whiskey

Nine New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- April 3, 2023

Locator: 44299B.  

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $80.86.

Natural gas: $2.121.

Nine new permits, #39779 - #39787, inclusive:

• Operators: Continental Resources (5); Oasis (3); Liberty Resources
• Fields: Rattlesnake Point (Dunn County); Alger (Mountrail); North Tioga (Burke)
• Comments:
•  Rattlesnake Point is followed here, though seldom updated any more;
• CLR has permits for three Thorvald wells, NWNE 7-146-96; and two Cuskelly wells, also NWNE 7-146-96; 
• all to be sited 375 FNL and between 2030 FEL and 2360 FEL;
• Oasis has permits for three Blanchet Federal wells, NENE 21-156-93; 
• to be sited 361 FNL and between 633 FEL and 723 FEL;
• Liberty Resources has a permit for a Casey well, NENE 11-159-94; 
• to be sited 350 FNL and 1145 FEL

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38171, no IP reported, CLR,
• 38806, 479, Crescent Point Energy,
• 38808, 295, Crescent Point Energy,
• 38810, 58, Crescent Point Energy,

IGV: Did OPEC+ Just Kill The Tech Rally? Michael Fitzsimmons -- April 3, 2023

Locator: 44298B.  

Updates

Later, 10:59 p.m. CT: Janet Yellen says the "surprise cut" is "an unconstructive act."

• was it constructive when President Biden said very, very clearly: "no more drilling"?
• is it constructive when President Biden does everything he can to shut down US oil sector and then asks the Saudis to increase their own production?
• was it a constructive when Biden precipitously and prejudicially killed the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office?
• was is constructive when President Biden said "no" to COP's 5-well drilling program in the Willow Project?
• was it constructive when Biden released record amounts of oil from the SPR for purely political reasons?
• was it constructive to gaslight Americans when he said the administration would start refilling the SPR this year?
  
• the list goes on.

If the Bakken was shut down tomorrow, would anyone notice?

• the OPEC+ "surprise cut" is about one million bopd, less than what the Bakken produces daily.
• everything I read suggests analysts are "sour" on the Bakken
  

Original Post

If you have time for just one article this week, this is the article I would recommend, if you are an investor in US equities.

Link here.

Supreme Court Rule 25. April 3, 2023

Locator: 44297B. 

Updates

Later, 11:56 p.m. CT: 34 felonies; will SCOTUS let Trump serve prison time?

Later, 9:24 p.m. CT: see note at end of original post.

Original Post 

One source. 

Second source.

Note: my understanding. I could be way, way wrong. If this is important to you, go to the source(s).

Trump.

Tomorrow's arraignment.

SCOTUS Rule 25: Writ of certiorari, of course, under consideration.

Requires four justices to agree to hear the case.  Requires five justices to rule in favor of Trump.

Chief Justice Roberts does not want the US judicial system to turn into a circus.

Chief Justice Roberts will want the charges to rise to the level of a felony in the eyes of the justices.

Timeline:

45 days for lower court to provide SCOTUS with filings. Not sure about this -- needs to be fact-checked but sounds about right. Written briefs limited to 40 - 50 pages. Again, needs to be fact-checked but the number of pages is severely limited.

90 days for SCOTUS to file written opinion after conclusion of oral arguments.

30 days after filing writing opinion, the decision becomes final. 

Right to a speedy trial but that's only part of the discussion.

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Note

A reader sent me this e-mail in reference to the note above:

 You obviously have no idea what you are talking about.

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

You are so correct (about me not knowing what I'm talking about), but I used to know even less. LOL. My real weakness was natural gas, but I've come a long way even on that.

The blog was started as a personal Microsoft document for my purposes only but then realized HTML worked better, and as long as I had HTML, I could share with others.

I often tell folks not to read my blogs (because I don't know what I'm talking about but trying to learn. But that's why I almost always include links so folk can go to the source.

And the great thing, free, no password, no nothing -- no one needs to read the blog. At the end of the day it's for my benefit, good or bad.

So much more could be said, but need to move on.

I need to add this which I used to post often. 

I know very little about oil. I know even less about natural gas. 

I know even less about almost everything else. 

I don't recommend anyone reading my blog but if one does, read it for the Bakken. 

If I blogged only about the Bakken I would get very bored and would eventually run out of energy to keep blogging. I blog about other things to keep me "going" and to put the Bakken in perspective. 

I write much more about this at the "welcome" which is a stand-along page, tagged at the top, upper left. 

And for heaven's sake don't make any life decisions, financial decisions, investing decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. This is not an investment site.

I'm going to put this note in "draft" for the next couple of days, and then re-post it so it does not distract folks from the Bakken.

The Market Held Up Quite Remarkably -- April 3, 2023

Locator: 44296B.

Wow, I'm quite surprised. The market held up quite well. I expected a lot of profit taking.

Biggest winner today: Saudi Aramco.

I certainly thought profit-taking would have dampened the euphoria before the close. There is still almost an hour left of trading, so it's not yet over, but AAPL was a surprise; UNP was not.

The biggest surprise: CAT. (I don't follow the airlines).

Not a surprise:

• UNP: down
  
• BRK (OXY): up
  
• MCD: up
  

A surprise:

• AAPL: up
  
• T: up
  
• CAT: up
  
• CHRD: a huge suprise, up $9.
• COP: up 9% (?)
• HES: up $11

It should be noted that the following three companies have been quite forthcoming about raising dividends:

• DVN
• COP
• CHRD

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.