Friday, July 25, 2025

Serendipity, Serendipitous, Fortuitous, And Lucky -- July 25, 2025

Locator: 48832CHIPS.

This blog needs to be completed to include links and background; right now, it's for my benefit as I continue to read John Orton's book.

Development of the transistor from John Orton's book, c. 2004.

So many advances were serendipitous, fortuitous, or lucky. 

Tag: serendipity.

Examples:

First: early on, Brattain attacked a condensation problem by substituting an alcohol for water ….pure serendipity … p. 52

Second: in washing the sample before attempting to make measurements, Brattain inadvertently dissolved the oxide film and ended up with not one but two metal contact directly on the Ge surface. Again, pure serendipity. That  was even more bizarre than Brattain's first serendipitous breakthrough .. again, the result was favourable -- by applying a positive voltage to the Au dot and negative to the point contact the observed voltage amplification at frequencies up to 10kHz! From p. 52.

Third: selecting Ge early on in the process was entirely fortuitous. Begins bottom of page 53 and top of page 54.

Fourth: The Metal Oxide Silicon (MOS) transistor was yet another product of the fertile ground cultivated by Bell Telephone Laboratories and, once again, it involved just a small element of good fortune. The critical step in its invention was the (accidental!) discovery that the Si surface can be oxidized to from a highly stable insulating film which possesses excellent interface qualities (i.e. the interface between the oxide layer and the underlying silicon).

Serendipity, Serendipitous, Fortuitous, And Accidental -- The Story of Semiconductors -- John Orton -- July 25, 2025

Locator: 48831CHIPS.

I continue to enjoy John Orton's book on semiconductors. 

I am finding is so fascinating that I am transcribing significant amounts to be placed on the blog. 

The first example was section 3.1 transcribed here

Do a word search, "serendipity" at this post. No less than three events in the early invention of the transistor were due to serendipity, were serendipitous, or were fortuitous.

Now, transcribing section 4.2 we have yet another serendipitous / fortuitous / accidental discovery which was critical for development of the microchip / transistor / semiconductor. Link here. To wit:

4.2 The metal oxide silicon transistor. It begins:

The Metal Oxide Silicon (MOS) transistor was yet another product of the fertile ground cultivated by Bell Telephone Laboratories and, once again, it involved just a small element of good fortune. The critical step in its evnention was the (accidental!) discovery that the Si surface can be oxidized to form a highly stable insulating film which possesses excellent interface qualities (i.e. the interface between the oxide layer and the underlying silicon). We have already commented on the importance of this interface  in passivating Si planar transistors which, in turn, led to the practical realization of integrated circuits. The further application in the metal oxide silicon field effect transistor (MOSFET) turned out to be a singularly important bonus.
[Comment: so, now in the very beginning of the transistor story four discoveries that were serendipitous (serendipity), fortuitous, or accidental. Absolutely amazing.]

Continuing:

We saw in the previous chapter that the quest for a FET (which would function in a manner closely parallel to that of the thermionic valve) had already acquired something of a history. 

It was a patent awarded in 1930 to a Polish physicist, Julius Lilienfield (who emigrated to America in 1926), that thwarted William Shockley in his original attempt to patent such a device but, even more frustratingly, the existence of high densities of surface states on Ge and Si which prevented the Bell scientists from actually making one. 

Even though the application of a voltage to a "gate" electrode may have been successful in inducing a high density of electrons in the semiconductor region beneath it, these electrons were not free to influence the semiconductor's conductivity because they were trapped in surface (or interface) states. 

What was needed was a surface (or, more probably, an interface) characterized by a low density of these trapping states (of order 10^15 m^-2 or less) but, at the time, no one knew how to produce it

Brattain and Bardeen had continued to study the problem of surface states until 1955, eight (8) years after their invention of the point contact transistor, but it was not until 1958 that another Bell Group under "John" Atalla discovered the low density of states associated with a suitably oxidized SI surface. It was necessary ...

... and... and then a long paragraph explaining the next process ... ending ... 

... However, the key result was that their densities were below the above limit of 10^15 m^-2, thus making possible the development of a practice FET. This was finally achieved at Murray Hill in 1960. Within a few years RCA pioneered the introduction of MOS devices into integrated circuits and this technology rapidly came to dominate that of bipolar (e.g. n-p-n) devices in many applications.

Then a long paragraph of technical details, describing a process which is known as "inversion," the channel itself often being refrerred to as a "inversion layer."

Another short technical paragraph.

Then, another long technical paragraph, bottom of page 102, which begins:

A virtue of these curves ...As already explained in Box 4.1, digital signal processing (which is fundamental to present-day-computing and information transfer) depends on the use of short voltage (or current) pulses which are generated and moved around an array of electronic circuits in incredibly complicated fashion but the basis is, nevertheless, simple. At any point in the circuit, "information" is represented by the presence (digital "1") or absence (digital "0") of a pulse voltage. Typically its amplitude is about 5 V but the exact value is less important than the ability of monitoring circuitry to determine, with a high degree of certainty, that the pulse is either present or absent......

Now, skip ahead to the end of section 4.2:

In summary, then, we see that, by the early 1960s, the two principal active devices, bipolar and MOS transistors had become available to the electronic engineer and the story from this point is one of continuing miniaturization to improve speed and packing density in IC design and on the other hand, the development of large-scale devices with large voltage-handling capacity for use i high power applications.
Which device to use in which application depended, of course, on the specification required.
In general, MOSFETs have an advantage in IC design on account of their lower power dissipation and modest demand on silicon area, though bipolar devices are capable of faster switching speeds at the expense of more power dissipation and greater demand on space. 
The dissipation advantage inherent in the use of MOS devices was further enhanced in the late 1960s by the development of Complementary MOS (CMOS) circuity in which each switching element takes the form of a pair of transistors, one NMOS and one PMOS, the important feature being that power is dissipated only when the switch operates -- in the quiescent state (whether storing a digital 0 or 1). no current flows.

Section 43. Semicoductor technology. Oh, no. This section starts at the bottom of page 107 and doesn't end until page 120, and it begins:

In one sense (the commercial sense), this section is the most important in the book!
The reader should already be persuaded of the important part played by well controlled semiconductor materials in the development of transistors and integrated circuits. Without high-quality germanium the transistor could never have been discovered and without high-quality silicon the integrated circuit would still be a mere concept.
However, even greater importance attaches to the role played by technology.
Without the amazing skills built up by semiconductor technologists we might still be trying to wire together crude individual transistors on printed circuit boards, rather than linking powerful integrated circuit chips to build fast computers with almost unimaginable amount of memory.

A long, long paragraph. Then:

...but this still leaves unanswered the question of how to define their precise positions [the precise position of transistors on a chip]. This step, known as "photolithography," probably representing the most important single contribution to the technology, originated in the printing industry and was adapted for microelectronic applications by a number of American companies such as Bell, TI,and Fairchild at the beginning of the 1960s. As an aid to understading it, we refer to the earlier process of making mesa transistors, depeding on selective etching to form the local bumps on the semiconductor surface which defined the active device area.

Interestingly, this process is wll described in Simon Winchester's book.

Really Hot -- PSX Reports Earnings -- Beat Estimates -- Huge Beat -- Shares Up In Pre-Market -- July 25, 2025

Locator: 48830PSX.

Tag: PSX, INTC

$2.38 vs $1.71.

Link here.

******************************
INTC

Mid-day trading: why did it drop so much more as the day went on? Simply because folks are now hearing the whole story and that story is now getting the headline -- if Intel cannot find a customer for it's newest planned 14A chip, Intel says it won't produce it. Wow -- 

Pre-market;

Hot And Hotter -- July 24, 2025

Locator: 48829FIRED.

Hot -- today's forecast, north Texas, DFW:


Hotter
:

Really hot! Link here.

Ice cream break in Peru, granddaughter Olivia far right in shorts. This was a day off from work; Olivia is working this summer in Peru involving satellite technology. Later this summer to the Galápagos Islands before returning to Stanford.

Sophia -- Jiu-Jitsu -- Awarded the top grey belt, July 25, 2025:

TGIF -- No New Bakken Wells Being Reported Today -- July 25, 2025

Locator: 48830B.

Tech: two biggest takeaways from yesterday -

  • the huge head fake immediately following release of Intel's earnings
    • headline story: "Intel beat estimates"
    • thirty minutes later: "oh-oh"
  • the three-month break-out of the Magnificent 7
    • exhibit A: AMD


WTI: $66.20.

New wells:

  • Sunday, July 27, 2025: 38 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 468 for the year,
    • 41347, conf, CLR, Syverson 6-12H,
    • 40680, conf, Oasis, Ongstad 5795 13-15 2B,
    • 40580, conf, Oasis, Ongstad 5795 13-15 3B,
  • Saturday, July 26, 2025: 35 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 465 for the year,
    • 41133, conf, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen Trust 153-95-20A-32-1HS,
  • Friday, July 25, 2025: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 464 for the year,
    • None.

RBN Energy: new budget bill aims to throttle pace of EV adoption, with long-term consequences.

Expectations for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. took a sharp detour into uncharted territory earlier this month when President Trump signed the landmark budget reconciliation bill into law. Known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the law dramatically scales back EV subsidies, eliminates penalties for automakers that don’t meet fuel-efficiency standards, and significantly restricts state-level zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) programs. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why the law is likely to slow the pace of EV adoption and impact forecasts for vehicle sales and gasoline demand — a key topic in the just-published Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice.

We’ll start with one of the most significant changes in the OBBBA, or at least one that is very noticeable to consumers: the early termination of the New EV Tax Credit (30D), which has helped EVs move closer to price parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Under changes made to the tax credit in 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), EVs complying with either critical mineral or battery component requirements are eligible for tax credits of $3,750 each, or $7,500 if a vehicle meets both. In addition, a tax credit of up to $4,000 was for the first time extended to used EVs. The IRA also gave buyers the option of using the credit as part of their down payment or as cash-back from the dealer. (Under earlier legislation, buyers had to wait until they filed their taxes in the following calendar year to receive the value of the credit.)

Those tax credits are ending as of September 30 — seven years earlier than under the IRA — but the OBBBA makes a couple other key changes as well. Leased EVs will no longer be classified as commercial vehicles, a loophole that has allowed leasing companies to claim the full tax credit, then pass it on to the consumer. (About half of new EVs are now leased, according to market reports, up from 15% in 2022. The industrywide lease rate for all new vehicles is about 25%.) In addition, the Commercial Clean Vehicle Tax Credit (45W) is also being discontinued. Businesses and tax-exempt organizations that purchase qualified clean vehicles — battery-electric, fuel cell and plug-in hybrid vehicles — for commercial use qualify for the credit. The credit can be up to $40,000 for larger vehicles (14,000 pounds or more, such as heavy-duty trucks, school buses and semis) and up to $7,500 for smaller vehicles.

Figure 1. EV Share of Overall U.S. Fleet and New Car Sales, 2012-24

Figure 1. EV Share of Overall U.S. Fleet and New Car Sales, 2012-24. Source: RBN Refined Fuels Analytics