The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Thursday, August 15, 2024

US Hitting On All Cylinders -- Now It's Global Warming Producing Record Crops In The US -- August 15, 2024

Locator: 48428AGRICULTURE.

Wow, I love this country.

Wind -- August 15, 2024

Locator: 48427WIND.

".... Orsted had to cancel two major projects in the US last year after delays and supply chain issues added unmanageable costs. The latest trouble shows developers still can't predict all the costs in this generation of major projects."

key words / phrases:

unmanageable costs
supply chain issues (still? how long will they use this excuse)
still can't predict all the costs
this generation? of major projects -- what generation is this?

Link here.

Google AI Making Huge Investment In Dallas Area -- August 15, 2024

Locator: 48426AI.

With regard to AI:

some feel it is hyped;
others say it is not hyped.

I'm in camp B.

Exhibit:

Big on the nightly news tonight:

Ticker:

Electric Rates -- An Update -- August 15, 2024

Locator: 48425ELECTRICITY.

Much of this was re-posted from earlier because the CNBC folks today were very excited about these new nuclear reactors coming on line, and suggesting this could be the turning point for nuclear energy in the US going forward.

Nuclear reactor: two new units come on line. Absurdly expensive and took "forever" to build. Unit 3 and unit 4 -- big fanfare on CNBC today about bringing these two units online, and "what it might mean for nuclear future in the US" LOL.

A transformer fire in last 24 hours in Unit 1 was not mentioned, but here's the story.
The Vogtle plant in Georgia, wiki. The huge cost increase will result in significantly higher utility bills for Georgia customers.

And then this, the absurdly high cost:

Units 1 and 2 were completed in 1987 and 1989. The cost of these two units jumped from an estimated $660 million to almost $9 billion. [28x $660 million = $19 billion.]

Primary construction for Unit 3 began in 2009; completed in July, 2023.

Unit 4 came on line on April 29, 2024.

For units 3 and 4 combined, 2018 price estimates, $25 billion. By 2021, price estimates were almost $30 billion. In 2023, costs had increased to $34 billion, with work still to be completed on Vogtle 4. At $35 billion, 84% more expensive than the units 1 and 2, combined (1.84 x 19 - 35).

Per kWh:
units 1 and 2, combined, $9 billion / 2,430 MW = $3,703,703 / MW
units 3 and 4, combined, $35 billion / 2,106 MW = $16,619,183 / MW

Cost per wiki:

All of this needs to be fact-checked. I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Electric rates tracked here by the EIA.

Residential electric rates, cents per kWh, May, 2024, for selected states:

Massachusetts: 28.70
New York: 23.60
Ohio: 16.65
Minnesota: 15.69
North Dakota: 13.04
Florida: 13.63
Tennessee: 12.46
Texas: 14.74
Montana: 13.26
California: 34.31 (no typo) -- it was 29.80 a year ago -- a 15% increase in price!
Washington State: 12.16 (think hydroelectricity)
Alaska: 25.02
Hawaii: 44.14 (and a question whether Hawaiian Electric might go bankrupt)

Coincidentally, this was posted yesterday:

Bull Market As Strong As Ever -- Most Analysts Today Expect That Lows Will Be Tested Before End Of Summer (Before End Of Septembe) -- August 15, 2024

Locator: 48424INV.

At the close, August 15, 2024. At the close, the Dow up 555 points (1.4%); the S&P up 88 points (1.6%) and the NASDAQ up 402 points (2.34%). Wow.

First bull market in memory that began at the same time as the Fed began raising rates -- CBNC.

MDU raises dividend by 4% to 13 cents / share.

AMAT: earnings beat. Ticker:

Nuclear reactor: comes on line. Absurdly expensive and took "forever" to build. Unit 3 and unit 4 -- big fanfare on CNBC today about bringing these two units online. A transformer fire in last 24 hours in Unit 1 was not mentioned, but here's the story. The Vogtle plant in Georgia, wiki. The huge cost increase will result in significantly higher utility bills for Georgia customers.