Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Brittney Griner -- Remember Her? Russian Court Denies Her Appeal Of Nine-Year Sentence -- October 25, 2022
Either this is not "high priority" for White House, or White House has no clout with the Kremlin.
For Investors Only -- October 24, 2022
Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Synthetic monopolies: link here.
- fourteen sectors / categories --
- AAPL in three of them; should be part of a fourth (cloud-base layer)
- possibly a fifth: payments, along with V, MA
- and, definitely in a sixth sector / category: semiconductors
- UNP -- this one is most obvious; has been that way for decades
- semiconductors: if there are numerous "monopolies" within this group, can they be monopolies -- ask INTC
Open-book test, link here:
- ignore the politics
- look at the PFE, MRNA headlines
US fuel demand has surpassed 2019 levels -- Valero -- link here.
Oil -- Bloomberg Opinion;
The biggest impediment to energy stocks these past few years has been contempt. Investors hated the sector’s talent for burning cash, feared its ever-darkening climate outlook and wearied of the queasy ups-and-downs of oil itself. Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. captured all that, perhaps unintentionally, in an update this week: “It seems to be getting more difficult for the generalist community to ignore the sector at large.”
Becoming seemingly less ignorable might not look like a ringing endorsement. But this is a sector that, despite producing the world’s most indispensable commodity, dropped to less than 2% of the S&P 500 two years ago. That was amid the pandemic, granted, but Covid-19 merely delivered the coup de grace after years of decline. So money managers feeling the need for energy exposure again is a big deal.
Since March 2020, oil prices have roughly quadrupled, pulling energy equities up with them. Yet, despite the sector having trounced the broader market this year, its average valuation multiples are roughly where they were back at the start of the pandemic, at about 4.5 to 5.5 times forward Ebitda. The cash flows are much bigger; energy’s weighting is back above 5%. But the level of trust and interest, as expressed by those multiples, remains muted. Changing that, and expanding those valuations, could add another leg to the rally.
There are similarities to the setup in the early 2000s, says Ben Dell of Kimmeridge Energy Management Co., with the sector coming off years of underinvestment and with supply tight. As back then, rising interest rates spur fears of recession but that may curb demand growth rather than cut it outright.
The big difference is the energy transition, with clean technologies transformed and structural changes like US climate legislation squeezing the terminal valuations embedded in energy stocks. Yet the years needed to turn over chunks of the energy system, such as vehicle fleets, and the immediate exigencies of energy security may portend another near-term upcycle.
Strong results from oilfield services bellwether Schlumberger Ltd. fit this view. At the least, as energy inflation corrodes the rest of their portfolio, many investors may feel compelled to buy back into the sector they love to hate.
-- Liam Denning, Bloomberg Opinion
Tesla permabulls in full panic mode: link here.
- robotaxis rolling off the GM production line; flooding San Francisco streets
Dividends, more of the same, nothing new, gets tedious, link here:
- notes:
- list needs to include TYS, DE, and AAPL - per reader;
- NextEra Energy just announced increase in quarrterly dividend.
How Fast Things Change -- The Big Story Today -- Natural Gas -- October 25, 2022
Posted earlier:
Natural gas: $5.158. Some Permian natural gas is trending toward $0
- European situation reversed
- no place to store more natural gas
- stream of LNG tankers continues
- European storage sites 90+% full
- European autumn significantly warmer than usual
*************************
Updates
Texas natural gas prices sink close to zero -- link here.
"Natural gas drops toward zero as output swamps pipelines, Permian" -- Bloomberg.
When WaHa goes negative, the flares shine -- link here.
- by the way, a fake interpretation of the satellite photo
- much of that is simply electric lighting; we saw the same false narrative in the Bakken ten years ago
- but that doesn't change the story: natural gas swamps pipelines.
RBN Energy: from October 13, 2022 -- just two weeks ago -- can't build them fast enough.
When it comes to Texas gas supply and Gulf Coast LNG, we’d note that with rapid growth in export terminals from Louisiana to South Texas, the Texas terminals are especially well-located. Why? Because ample and rapidly growing Permian supplies are resulting in a number of very large new pipelines and pipeline expansions from the Permian to the coast that are intrastate — fully within Texas. That means they do not face the delays and multi-layer opposition that interstate pipelines from the north do. Meanwhile, the efforts to impose various critical-facilities and reliability standards on the natural gas industry in Texas remain to be evaluated.
European Natural Gas Situation Improves -- October 25, 2022
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 43.
WTI:$83.21.
Natural gas: $5.158. Some Permian natural gas is trending toward $0
- European situation reversed
- no place to store more natural gas
- stream of LNG tankers continues
- European storage sites 90+% full
- European autumn significantly warmer than usual
Friday, October 28, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.
Thursday, October 27, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.
Wednesday, October 26, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
38783, conf, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H,
None.
RBN Energy: Alberta advances multiple carbon storage sites, part 3.
Capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial and oil and gas activities is already a big challenge but having a safe, permanent place to store them is vital if the goal is to meet or exceed emission-reduction targets. To this end, Alberta, home to most of Canada’s oil and gas industry, including the vast oil sands, is steadily advancing plans to develop carbon sequestration hubs and underground reservoirs across the province in parallel with above-ground CO2 capture plants and pipelines. In separate announcements this year, the province gave the go ahead to 25 projects to develop sequestration hubs and determine if they can achieve commercial viability. In today’s blog, we consider Alberta’s latest efforts to push forward with its emissions capture and storage plans.