Inflation, Again -- July 19, 2022

Updates

July 20, 2022: housing market in free fall. Or not.

Original Post 

Whenever I see stories about high inflation here in the states, I keep coming back to this graph:

I was reminded of that when I came across this today (link: https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1549346241737379843):

I now follow Lance Roberts.

Production Changes Month-Over-Month, May-Over-April, 2022

Folks who think they "know" the Bakken may want to spend some time on this one.

I would be curious if anyone can explain this.

Assuming I did all the math correctly and that's a huge assumption, but look at this:

The number of wells offline for operational reasons:

• May, 2022: 2,944
• April, 2022: 2,403
• so, in May, month-over-month, there was an increase of 541 wells taken off line
• those 541 wells represents an INCREASE of wells taken off line by almost 25%
• got that? 25% more wells were off line in May than in April. Twenty-five percent.

The number of producing wells:

• May, 2022: 16,953
• April, 2022: 16,896
• in other words, month-over-month, May-over-April, the number of producing wells increased by 57
• as a percentage, that was an increase of 0.3%. Not 30%. Not 3%. Not even one percent, but a third of one percent.

Now, take a look at this:

• oil production, month-over-month, May-over-April increased by 17%. Seventeen percent.
• natural gas production, month-over-month, May-over April increased by 14%. Fourteen percent.

Anyone want to hazard a guess. 

I'll discuss it later.

It's not rocket science. Again, assuming I did the math correctly.

Production Changes Month-Over-Month, May - April, 2022

Most recent "dashboard" for the Bakken:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf

Production change, month-over-month:

Oil:

• April, 2022: 905,357bbls / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 1,058,721
• delta, bopd: 153,364
  
• delta, percent: up 17%
  
• revised revenue forecast: from 1.2 million bbls to 1.0 million bbls
  

Gas production and capture:

• April, 2022: 2,451,679 MCF / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 2,787,671 MCF / day
• delta, MCF / day: 355,992 MCF / day
  
• delta, percent: up 14%

Now compare that data with wells offline for operational reasons for the past three months:

Data for past several months; full list is tracked here:

May, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 2,448
• DUCS: 496
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,944
• producing: 16,953

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 1,909
• DUCS: 494
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,403
• producing: 16,896

March, 2022:

• inactive: 1,928
• DUCS: 451
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,379
• producing: 16,746

Update Of Wells Offline For Operational Reasons -- July 19, 2022

Data for past several months; full list is tracked here:

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 2,448
• DUCS: 496
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,944
• producing: 16,953

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 1,909
• DUCS: 494
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,403
• producing: 16,896

March, 2022:

• inactive: 1,928
• DUCS: 451
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,379
• producing: 16,746

February, 2022:

• inactive: 1,872
• DUCS: 463
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,335
• producing: 16,746

Director's Cut Posted -- May, 2022, Data

Director's Cuts are tracked here. 

May, 2022, data posted here.

Wells offline for operational purposes tracked here.

Oil:

• April, 2022: 905,357 bbls / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 1,058,721 bbls / day (preliminary)
• delta, bopd: 153,364
  
• delta, percent: up 17%
  
• revised revenue forecast: from 1.2 million bbls to 1.0 million bbls
  

Crude oil price:

• today: $100.50
• May, 2022: $105.77
  
• April, 2022: $100.16

Gas production:

• April, 2022: 2,451,679 MCF / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 2,787,671 MCF / day
• delta, MCF / day: 355,992 MCF / day
  
• delta, percent: up 14%
  

Rigs and wells:

• rigs:
• today: 42 (includes at least one SWD rig)
  
• June: 42
  
• May: 40
• April: 38
• permitted:
• June: 77
• May: 68
• April: 55
• completed:
• June: 27 (preliminary)
• May: 53 (revised)
• April: 33  (said to be preliminary but probably final)
• inactive:
• May: 2,448
  
• April: 1,909
• DUCs
• May: 496
• April: 494
• producing:
• May: 16,953
  
• April: 16,896
• May to April: 0.3% increase in number of producing wells.