Four New Permits; SIx Permits Renewed; BR Reports A DUC -- June 16, 2022

Crashed and burned: Phil.

• wow, does his card look bad! Bogeys and double bogeys;
• first birdie on the back nine; huge cheer from the crowd
  
• playing +6 right now; leader is -4;
• Phil is ten back; unless he has great second day, making the cut will be problematic.

California: from "green cash" to "green crash." 

• California's renewable energy dream has turned into a nightmare. Link here. Archived.
  

Headwinds, perfect storm:

• severe recession scaring everyone: folks will put off buying a new car for as long as possible;
• supply chain, semiconductors, chips: no relief in sight?
• commodities at all-time highs; wiping out profits for EV manufacturers
• ICE manufacturers pivoting to EVs: unprecedented amount of capital requirements

Hot: Spain. Link here. Heatwave drives gas-fired generation to highest rate since 2009.
Spain used to be the poster child for renewable energy. What happened?

Hot: next Wednesday and Thursday, June 22 - June 23, 2022, the US will experience incredibly hot temperatures. 

• Temperatures will be 103° to 108°F across the southeast US -- similar to late June, 2012. Link here.

Hot: Russia's largest gas field is on fire after pipe bursts. Link here to Charles Kennedy, so you know it's a big story.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here. So many data points.

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Back to the Bakken

NDIC GIS map server: still not up and running.  No new information from NDIC.

WTI: $117.10

Active rigs: 39 or thereabouts.

Four new permits, #39024 - #39027, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Ray (Williams County)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for four GO-Golden Valley wells in NWNW 28-157-96, 
• to be sited 474 FNL and between 1196 FWL and  1295 FWL;

Six permits renewed:

• BR: two Sandie permits, one Shaferpermit, and three West Kellogg permits, all in McKenzie County

Two permits canceled:

• Oasis: two Fraser Federal permits in Williams County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 37637, 0, BR, Cherry Margarita 1X TFH, 
• for newbies: this is not a dry hole; BR generally reports "0" for an initial production number  for a DUC.
  
• the BR Cherry pad is tracked here.
  

Tesla Update -- Significant Price Increases Across The Board -- June 16, 2022

TSLA: at open, down 4%; breaks below $670; trading at $669.01. Holy carbon, Batman! TSLA plummets. Down $46, could break below $655. I assume Cathie Wood is buying more. RIVN? Down 8%. But look at this: ELMS UP 200%. Later: TSLA now down over 9%, broke below $635 but according to a reader, Tesla is best in class. What does this mean for all the rest? Near the market close: down almost 10%. Trading at $633.

Coal: I'm still amazed, after all these years, folks still do not realize that EVs run on coal. 

Coal? Probably not, but one never knows. Probably not in my lifetime but certainly my grandchildren could see the Brits going back to coal. Back to the future. Back to Britain. Link here. Great Britain is "back-pedaling" on its climate pledges. 

Coal: link here. 

SecEnergy: time to buy an EV.

• "if you can't afford to buy gas, buy an EV" — US SecEnergy who is quickly going down as the US' worst SecEnergy ever
• "let them eat cake" -- some French queen

Tesla: link here.

• Tesla Model 3:
• from $54,490 to $57,990
• a $2,500 price increase
• Tesla Model Y:
• Tesla's most popular model
• a bigger price increase with both versions
• Model Y Long Range: from $62,990 to $65,990
• a $3,000 increase
• Model Y Performance: from $67,990 to $69,990
• a $2,000 increase
• Tesla also now sells a Model Y Standard Range, the new version build in Texas, but Tesla has yet to let people buy it through its online configurator and only offers it to local Model Y buyers in Texas on an invitation basis for now
• Tesla Model S
• this new price increase comes after a $5,000 price increase just a few months ago:
• from $99,990 t0 $104,990
• a $5,000 price increase today
• a $10,000 price increase over past few months
• no one is buying this car for global warming reasons or to save money on gasoline
• Plaid: remains at $135,990.
• Tesla Model X
• like the Model S, a significant price increase a few months ago, and now again
• from $114,990 to $120,990
• a whopping $6,000 price increase on top of previous price increase
• Plaid: remains the same at $138,990

See linked article for writer's thoughts on these price increases.

Shale Oil Forecast -- Rystad Energy -- June 16, 2022

Most important twitter post on shale today? Link here.

• being re-posted as a stand-alone
• twitter comment: "Let's see if Permian production comes in > 5 million for March and April -- that will give a clue how optimistic this might be
• Rystad Energy's mea culpa? Reminds one individual of "Equinor's mea culpa."
• another: "I have no doubt the US capable of producing 13 million bopd, and will likely do so by the end of the year (2022). But 16 million bopd? That kind of forecasting is based on BS assumptions.
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf

Yesterday: Crushing News From Ford; Now, It's Tesla's Turn -- Waiting For SecEnergy To Weigh In -- June 16, 2022

Links to follow, but the screenshot says it all.

Corroboration was not needed, but this corroborates the Ford story in spaces, as my dad would say. This is, in a word: devastating.

EVs: how are the EVs doing pre-market?

• GM: down slightly; flat;
• F: down 3%;
• TSLA: down 4%; breaks below $700;
• RIDE: down 3%
• GOEV: down 4%;
• ELMS: up 26%; from 14 cents to 18 cents; said to be seeking bankruptcy protection;
• RIVN: down 3.6%;
  

RIVN leads us to AMZN:

• down 3%
• AMZN trading at $108

Ford:

• in addition to price story yesterday, two additional links:
• amid recalls, Ford says costs to build Mustang Mach-E are skyrocketing;
• Ford halts Mustang Mach-E deliveries for battery recall;
• I think there might have been another Ford recall but not interested in checking

WTI Plunges To $113 -- One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- June 16, 2022

US Open! Open!

WTI: plunges to $113

• consensus: due to Russia increasing production and exports: raises a number of questions
• also: Biden's trip to Saudi still on schedule
• also: some suggest US could get into business of refining (unlikely but could offer huge incentives to open one or two mothballed crude oil refineries)
• if the latter happens, suggests for first time that "green" ideologues in the White House are "losing" to the Biden "political" faction
• SecEnergy: starting to fold on "green" energy; giving in to pragmatists?
• but what if plunge in WTI related more to risk of "severe recession"? 
  

Commentary:

• top analyst looks back on 2020 Foreign Policy article; archived.
• it may be behind paywall but I was able to read entire article
• I found the article worthless and wrong in so many places
• if I'm correct, there's an easy explanation; may re-post as a stand-alone

Most important twitter post on shale today? Link here.

• needs to be re-posted as a stand-alone
• twitter comment: "Let's see if Permian production comes in > 5 million for March and April -- that will give a clue how optimistic this might be
• Rystad Energy's mea culpa? Reminds one individual of "Equinor's mea culpa."
• another: "I have no doubt the US capable of producing 13 million bopd, and will likely do so by the end of the year (2022). But 16 million bopd? That kind of forecasting is based on BS assumptions.
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf

Freeport: bigger story than most thought one week ago

Baby formula:

• Abbott plant back on hold; "flooding"

Top story yesterday: Ford

• absolutely worse news ever for EVs
  

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $113.60

Active rigs: 37 or thereabouts

Thursday, June 16, 2022: 24 for the month, 162 for the quarter, 322 for the year

• 38435, conf, WPX, Wounded Face 14-15HW,

 RBN Energy: global market impacts of the Freeport LNG outage, part 2. 

Freeport LNG is expected to be offline for an extended period following last week’s explosion and fire at the export terminal, leaving the global gas market even more undersupplied than it already was. The outage cuts U.S. export capacity by about 2 Bcf/d at a time when Europe is still taking in huge volumes of LNG to offset declines in Russian supplies and bolster storage ahead of winter. This is all happening as another large exporting nation, Australia, is facing a critical winter energy crisis of its own and South American demand is headed toward its seasonal high, straining an already tight market. Today’s RBN blog continues our series about the ongoing Freeport outage, this time looking at the impact to the global gas and LNG markets.

Conclusion:

Ninety days takes the full-facility outage at Freeport LNG into September, meaning that no Freeport LNG cargoes will be available during this summer, with Asia and Latin America potentially feeling the loss more strongly than Europe. For Latin America, that’s because, as we noted earlier, it’s peak demand season and when U.S. cargoes would typically head south; for Asia, it’s because of Freeport-specific contracts and also rising seasonal demand. We were already seeing a drop in U.S. LNG sendout to Europe, which accounted for about 75% of total U.S. exports from January through April, but that dropped to 65% in May and appeared to be declining further this month even prior to the outage.

Beyond September, the brunt of the impact could swing back to Europe, which could find itself in a precarious position heading into winter as it seeks to secure LNG cargoes in the face of an ongoing war that has put it at odds with what has been its largest gas supplier.