"Fauci, We Have A Problem" -- April 27, 2021

Continuing a theme we started about the time Dr Fauci "paused" the JNJ vaccine. 

CDC data linked here. 

In the spreadsheet below, I've hidden all rows except "Tuesday." Again, this probably reflects the number of vaccinations given on Monday, again, depending on how fast local and state health departments report their numbers.

Note column "D": the number of vaccinations given in the previous 24 hours. This is one of the lowest numbers reported on a Tuesday going back six weeks.

And remember, starting last/this week, vaccines are now available to everyone over the age of sixteen. We should be seeing "blow-out" numbers. 

The US is able to administer nearly four million doses in a 24-hour period based on previous and current data. This past Monday/Tuesday? Less than 1.7 million doses. 

This may have nothing to do with the "JNJ vaccine pause" but it sure makes me wonder. 

By the way, the greatest number of vaccinations for a Tuesday were given on April 13, 2021. That was the date the US government "shut down" the JNJ vaccine so "it could be studied." Four days later, the government was ready to re-instate the vaccine, but wait another full week. We've discussed that previously.

		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered
Tuesday	April 27, 2021	297,543,635	6,851,630	232,407,669	1,639,215	78.11%
Tuesday	April 20, 2021	272,030,795	7,525,070	213,388,238	1,806,929	78.44%
Tuesday	April 13, 2021	245,364,805	7,568,500	192,282,781	2,590,736	78.37%
Tuesday	April 6, 2021	219,194,215	11,302,820	168,592,075	1,404,280	76.91%
Tuesday	March 30, 2021	189,451,285	8,804,720	147,602,345	1,789,510	77.91%
Tuesday	March 9, 2021	123,232,775	6,854,160	93,692,598	1,602,746	76.03%
Tuesday	March 2, 2021	102,353,940	5,951,450	78,631,601	1,731,614	76.82%

The Coming US Natural Gas Boom -- Rystad -- April 27, 2021

This story was posted last week but the original source document was not linked. This comes from Rystad, April 22, 2021.

The report begins:

Natural gas production in the US is set to grow to a new record in 2022, at 93.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) and will continue to rise further, exceeding 100 Bcfd in 2024, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. As a result, the performance of the country’s key gas basins is going to attract increased interest from investors and markets, with CO2 emissions intensity, capital efficiency and potential bottlenecks drawing close scrutiny.

The country’s output reached a record in 2019, at 92.1 Bcfd, but production declined subsequently to 90.8 Bcfd in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Rystad Energy expects that 2021 volumes will fall even further, to 89.7 Bcfd but the trend will quickly change as the effect of the pandemic subsides and activity builds up across the country’s major gas basins.

Rystad Energy’s analysis reveals that the Appalachian Basin was US’ best-in-class in 2020 when it comes to CO2 emissions intensity, and the region is set to report a record-high capital efficiency in 2021, as reinvestment to maintain output will drop to its lowest ever. Meanwhile, the Haynesville play will offer the largest gas output growth going forward, risking bottlenecks unless more pipelines are approved.

The graphic:

US Markets -- Early Morning -- April 27, 2021

Mid-Day Market

CDC: fully vaccinated folks don't need to wear masks outdoors. Does that include garden parties?

Of interest:

• WTI: looking good. OPEC holds production quotas.  
• COP: up 1% 
• CVX: flat to up slightly; 
• XOM: up half a percent;  
• OKE: up slightly; basically flat 
• ENB: surprisingly, up about 1%: 
• EPD: flat, down slightly; 
• MNRL: down about half a percent 
• DFS: continues to surge; after several great days, up another 1.2%;
• My favorites: 
• UNP: up half a percent; 
• SRE: down about a third of a percent; a-$124-stock now trading at $136 
• WMB: maintains dividend; pays just slightly less than 7%. 

Original Post

Wheat futures in Chicago touch highest since 2013. 

Consumer confidence:

• better than expected
• 121.7 vs 113 forecast
• highest in fourteen months
  

Blow-out earnings and blow-out margins:

• the re-opening trade;
• the re-opening is just getting started

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The US markets.

UPS:

• jumps into record territory after big profit and revenue beats; and,
• here at The WSJ;
• sales jump 27% to $23 billion; supply-chain and freight segment up 34%

BP:

• profits soar; this is quite a story; link here;
• commits to share buybacks after 1Q21 earnings double; link here;
  
• when earnings season is all over it will be interesting to see how XOM did compared to the rest;
• story: XOM failed to take advantage of "trading;" 

TESLA:

• reports record earnings; previously posted; this is The WSJ story;
• TSLA: down almost 4% in early trading today
  

AMD: reports after market closes later today.

Others of interest:

• XLNX: green, but barely;
• UNP: up slightly;
• AAPL: flat, actually down one penny today;
• DFS: up about half a percent;
• MNRL: up 1.53% -- whoo-hoo!

GE:

• does anyone care any more?
• another bad quarter: hit by slump in aviation business; well, duh;
• profit and free cash flow beats estimates (the bar must have been set low) but revenue fell shy;

A Closer Look At The MRO Kolbo USA Well -- 220K In 3.5 Months -- April 27, 2021

The well:

• 36918, F/A, MRO, Kolbo USA 34-5H, 33-061-04590, Reunion Bay, first production 10/20; t--; cum 219K 2/21; fracked 9/30/20 - 10/14/20; 10.8 million gallons of water; 66% fresh water by mass; 18% produced water by mass; new data not yet scanned in at NDIC; 54,049 over 20 days extrapolates to 81,074 bbls crude oil over 30 days;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2021	19	33762	33987	19323	47035	44861	1979
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	70051	69719	42646	98921	94970	3630
BAKKEN	12-2020	28	43615	43873	34374	57226	54626	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	20	54049	54102	67042	67815	64625	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	7	17778	16949	27894	17695	14901	1764

Two parent wells in the drilling unit show a halo effect, though not marked:

• 21630, 1,378, MRO, Waltom USA 43-8TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 434K 2/21;
• production, 11/19: 1,978 bbls
• production, 1/21: 5,3136bbls
• 18693, 560, MRO, Betty Shobe USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, t9/10; cum 353K 2/21;
• production, 12/18: 1,561 bbls
• production, 2/21: 5,496 bbls

MRO Reports A Huge Well In Reunion Bay -- April 27, 2021

NDIC hearing dockets for May, 2021: not yet announced, although NDIC has posted a few hearings for early May but these are all continuation cases; 

WTI: up temporarily due to transitory event in Mideast overnight. 

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.45	4/27/2021	04/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018	04/27/2017
Active Rigs	16	30	64	62	48

One well coming off confidential list -- Tuesday, April 27, 2021: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 103 for the year:

• 36918, F/A, MRO, Kolbo USA 34-5H, 33-061-04590, Reunion Bay, first production 10/20; t--; cum 219K 2/21; see this note for more data;
  

RBN Energy: propane markets writhe due to supply/demand uncertainty.

So far in April, there was an unexpected run-up in propane prices early in the month, followed by a 21% swoon in the past 15 days of trading. The forward curve suggests smooth sailing from now through next winter season, but that seems unlikely, given recent market developments.

Propane inventories, which are supposed to be building this time of year, actually fell last week, putting stocks at 16.9 MMbbl below this point in 2020, according to EIA statistics released last week. The data also showed that weekly exports spiked to the second-highest peak of all time at 1.7 MMb/d, while production declined two out of the past three weeks.

And just over the horizon, there’s the potential for a big increase in Chinese propane demand as new petrochemical plant capacity comes online over the next three years. Today, we look at how these issues are likely to shape the propane market over the next few months and suggest that you consider attending our upcoming virtual conference, where we will pose these questions to industry leaders from production, midstream, exports, and retail market segments.

If you don’t follow U.S. propane prices on a regular basis, Figure 1 will catch you up with the recent twists and turns. Before the meltdown in April 2020, the Mont Belvieu propane price was averaging about 40 c/gal, then dropped to 25 c/gal during the COVID crash. But in very short order the price was back up to 50 c/gal all through last summer, before taking off like an Elon Musk rocket in January 2021. The price bounced around in the 90s c/gal range, spiking up to $1/gal during the February Deep Freeze. This month, however, propane prices have come back to earth, standing at only 78.3 c/gal as of yesterday. 

Will the price of propane continue to fall? Well, the ICE forward curve says no (dashed red line in Figure 1). It’s flat as a board out through February 2022, averaging 76 c/gal, more than 30% above the 2020 price level for the same months in the prior year.