Monday, April 26, 2021

Texas Gains Two US House Seats -- Monday, April 26, 2021

Census results are in. Link here.

Congressional seat changes:

  • gains 2: Texas (+2)
  • gains 1: Oregon, Montana, Colorado, Florida, and NC (+5)
  • loses 1: California; New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois (- 7)
  • yup, the math works.

Corn, from social media:

  • after a staggering year-to-date rally, corn is now knocking at the $7-per-bushel door.
  • record imports by China and concerns about the weather are boosting prices
  • spill-over effect into the oil and refinery market via ethanol
  • note: a reader wrote me saying it cost him upwards of $6 - $8 to plant/fertilize/de-weed/harvest a bushel of corn

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Wow, Doesn't This Look Like Something
Warren Would Dream Up?

All things being equal, this looks superb. I would love this. A one-year holding period to be considered capital gains as it is now, I've always thought somewhat ridiculous.

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Global Warming: Hey, Not So Fast

A top Obama scientist is not rebutting much of the dominant political narrative. WSJ

Must be one of them there Neanderthals. 

Tesla, 1Q21 -- Beats Expectations Across The Board; Active Rig Count Drops To Fourteen -- April 26, 2021

Tesla, 1Q21, beat expectations across the board, despite a chip shortage and still facing Covid-19 pandemic headwinds.

  • record net income: $438 million
  • EPS: 93 cents vs 79 cents forecast; that's a huge beat;
  • revenue: $10.39 billion vs $10.29 forecast, up 74% from a year ago; very, very impressive;
  • revenue from sales of regulatory credits: $518 million (about 5% of total revenue)
    • perhaps that will end the meme -- one that I often posted -- that Tesla made its money off regulatory credits;
    • one analyst said: "looks like Tesla lost $80 million in the quarter excluding the massive $518 million regulatory credit sales"; 
    • another analyst: "Tesla's revenue declined 3.3% quarter-over-quarter; excluding regulatory credits its revenue declined 4.6% Q/Q;
  • deliveries, Model 3 and Model Y: 184,800; a record; beating expectations;
  • guidance:
    • expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year;
  • apparently "no one" can make sense of this earnings report based on comments on social media; one analyst has TSLA ttm P/E 1153x;
  • from the linked article:

The fact the company grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but only grew service centers by 28% and its mobile service fleet by 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.

The WSJ analysis: here.

Definitions: there seems to be some "disagreement" on the definition of "revenue" and "income" in this release.

TSLA: during the day, TSLA had been up n1.2%; up almost $9; trading at $738;
after-hours, profit-taking: TSLA dropped 2%; dropped $15; trading at $723.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Scary Headline

Non-story:

  • headline: Canadian government halts Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in Burnaby, BC:
  • "suspension" will last for four months;
  • ruling comes after complaints about construction activity impacting the birds
  • "temporary suspension" to last until August 20, 2021, when the hummingbirds said they will be done with their own nesting season;

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Alaska

The Newsom announcement. Yesterday it was California, down to less than 400,000 bopd production. Now, today, EIA on Alaska:

  • oil production in Alaska reaches its lowest level in more than 40 years; graphic suggests Alaska's production is down to slightly less than 500,000 bopd.

Link here.

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China Electricity

China's electricity consumption this year (2021) will increase by 7 to 8 percent from 2020 on stronger domestic activity. Source.

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Back to the Bakken

Bakken economy: Basin Electric set to expand grid in area between Tioga, Parshall due to all the growth. Link here

Active rigs:

$61.96
4/26/202104/26/202004/26/201904/26/201804/26/2017
Active Rigs1429646348

No new permits.

Three permits renewed:

  • Lime Rock Resources (2): one Brew permit and one Emerson permit, both in Dunn County.
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: one Ranger permit in Divide County;

The Trend Is Not The CDC's Friend -- April 26, 2021

Would you take the JNJ vaccine if the mRNA variants were available and you had a choice.

A four-day review and everything was copacetic, okey-dokey? 

Link here

Did the "JNJ pause" derail the vaccine rollout?

That drop from 3.127 million to 2.741 million was not trivial. It represents a 12% decrease from 3.127 million, and oh, by the way, the pool of those now "allowed" to get the vaccine has dropped all the way down to everyone over the age of 16. The most recent average should have soared. 



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Average number of doses given / day in past seven days

Monday

April 26, 2021

290,692,005

0

230,768,454

2,107,046

79.39%

26,186,280

2,741,021

Sunday

April 25, 2021

290,692,005

6,350

228,661,408

3,020,948

78.66%



Saturay

April 24, 2021

290,685,655

4,590,470

225,640,460

3,318,230

77.62%



Friday

April 23, 2021

286,095,185

3,911,270

222,322,230

3,374,587

77.71%



Thursday 

April 22, 2021

282,183,915

4,245,040

218,947,643

2,995,734

77.59%



Wednesday

April 21, 2021

277,938,875

5,908,080

215,951,909

2,563,671

77.70%



Tuesday

April 20, 2021

272,030,795

7,525,070

213,388,238

1,806,929

78.44%



Monday 

April 19, 2021

264,505,725

0

211,581,309

2,174,495

79.99%

26,709,420

3,127,038

Sunday

April 18, 2021

264,505,725

6,010

209,406,814

3,534,901

79.17%



Saturday

April 17, 2021

264,499,715

5,996,900

205,871,913

3,589,620

77.83%



Friday

April 16, 2021

258,502,815

3,102,150

202,282,293

3,965,253

78.25%



Thursday

April 15, 2021

255,400,665

4,402,400

198,317,040

3,525,204

77.65%



Wednesday  

April 14, 2021

250,998,265

5,633,460

194,791,836

2,509,055

77.61%



Tuesday

April 13, 2021

245,364,805

7,568,500

192,282,781

2,590,736

78.37%



Monday

April 12, 2021

237,796,305

200

189,692,045

2,644,914

79.77%

29,904,910

3,214,893

Sunday

April 11, 2021

237,796,105

4,370

187,047,131

3,579,422

78.66%



Saturday

April 10, 2021

237,791,735

4,199,780

183,467,709

4,629,928

77.15%



Friady

April 9, 2021

233,591,955

4,193,270

178,837,781

3,958,065

76.56%



Thursday

April 8, 2021

229,398,685

4,104,250

174,879,716

3,403,061

76.23%



Wednesday

April 7, 2021

225,294,435

6,100,220

171,476,655

2,884,580

76.11%



Tuesday

April 6, 2021

219,194,215

11,302,820

168,592,075

1,404,280

76.91%

 

 

Monday

April 5, 2021

207,891,395

100

167,187,795

2,134,049

80.42%

27,244,830

3,053,566

Sunday

April 4, 2021

207,891,295

24,650

165,053,746

3,365,324

79.39%



Saturday

April 3, 2021

207,866,645

3,147,310

161,688,422

4,081,959

77.78%



Friday

April 2, 2021

204,719,335

4,222,700

157,606,463

3,975,059

76.99%



Thursday 

April 1, 2021

200,496,635

4,914,910

153,631,404

3,358,112

76.63%



Wednesday

March 31, 2021

195,581,725

6,130,440

150,273,292

2,670,947

76.83%



Tuesday 

March 30, 2021

189,451,285

8,804,720

147,602,345

1,789,510

77.91%



Monday

March 29, 2021

180,646,565

100

145,812,835

2,350,144

80.72%

23,912,010

2,757,586