Friday, December 18, 2020

Notes From All Over, Part 4 -- Late Morning Edition -- December 18, 2020

Over at the sidebar at the right, I have a feature called "The Next Big Thing." I haven't added to it in a long time. 

That "feature" was started years ago when my son-in-law and I argued "Netflix vs Roku." He be on Roku; I bet on Netflix. I'll leave it up to readers to decide who won that argument. 

Be that as it may, it may take a long time but Roku is finally on a roll. A huge roll. 

Headline: ROKU forges deal with AT&T's WarnerMedia Stream HBO Max. From Zack's:

The two companies had hit a deadlock since HBO Max was launched in May over the financial terms for Roku to carry the streaming app. 
Markedly, in exchange for hosting an app with advertising, Roku typically takes 30% of the ad inventory to sell on its own. 
Markedly, Comcast CMCSA owned NBC Universal and Roku had been previously locked in negotiations for months over Peacock streaming app before they struck a deal in September. 
These standoffs have been a sign of how Roku, which has about 46 million active users, is flexing its muscles as the largest platform in the United States for aggregating streaming services.

Chinese flu watch: "percent positivity rate." This was new to me. I happened to catch it during a live television interview with a public official from Iowa. Here's the link from The [Cedar Rapids] Gazette. There is a graphic at that link. The caption to that graphic reads:

Chart updated December 17, 2020. Most of the state's June 2, 2020, data was late for The Gazette's 11 a.m. June 3, 2020, review of the numbers. 
There was another backlog resolved by the July 19, 2020, review. 
Positive antigen tests were added on August 27, 2020 [despite Johns Hopkins saying this is really, really inappropriate -- see below].

Meanwhile, with regard to "percent positivity rate," Johns Hopkins writes this

When states report testing numbers for COVID-19 infection, they should not include serology or antibody tests. Antibody tests are not used to diagnose active COVID-19 infection and they do not provide insights into the number of cases of COVID-19 diagnosed or whether viral testing is sufficient to find infections that are occurring within each state
States that include serology tests within their overall COVID-19 testing numbers are misrepresenting their testing capacity and the extent to which they are working to identify COVID-19 infections within their communities. States that wish to track the number of serology tests being performed should report those numbers separately from viral tests performed to diagnose COVID-19.

On another note, I absolutely do not understand the whole issue of "percent positivity rate." Oh, I know what it means, but it seems reporters are misinterpreting the results. At the Johns Hopkins link, the analysts also raise other issues with Iowa's reporting. 

Bottom line: the data collection and county health reporting across the US is still a mess; reporters don't know how to report the data; and politicians are making decisions on bad data. 

By the way, this is currently the most common "shape" of "new cases reported" looking at the charts from the 50 individual states:

This screenshot was taken of a single state (fairly consistent across all US states with a few exceptions). This was data released prior to the Covid-19 vaccine rollout in the US. This is not an uncommon curve seen in pathogenic viruses about to "burn themselves out." It was also seen, although perhaps not as dramatic, prior to the introduction of the smallpox vaccine.

Notes From All Over -- Late Morning Edition -- December 18, 2020

MLPs: from SeekingAlpha, Goldman Sachs, November, 2020:

TSLA: on a down day for the market, TSLA is up 1%;

  • volume:
  • current: 39 million
  • average: 46 million

Winter Storm Gail, electricity rates

  • ISO-NE:
    • current: $118
    • surge: $150
    • mix:
      • hydro: 8%
      • renewables: 7%
      • oil: 6%
      • coal: 3%
      • natural gas maxed out
  • ISO-NY:
    • Long Island: $101
    • NYC: $87
    • west-state (along Pennsylvania state line: $33

Winter Storm Gail: link here, from The WSJ:

A massive storm system dropped record-breaking snow across parts of the Northeast, producing dangerous traffic conditions that snarled highways and resulted in multiple fatalities.

Residents from Virginia to Maine dug out of significant snowfall from the two-day storm. It dumped more than 2 feet across central Pennsylvania and New York.

In Binghamton, N.Y., 42 inches of snow fell, breaking the area’s record for the highest one-day and two-day storm totals in December.

“It’s shattering a lot of records over here,” said Lily Chapman, a meteorologist with the weather service in Binghamton.

In New York City, 10.5 inches of snow fell on Central Park by Thursday afternoon, surpassing last winter’s cumulative snowfall there.

Japan: record snowfall hits Japanese islands

Chinese flu watch:

  • wow, the brown map is at light as ever except for San Bernardino County, CA
  • even "four corners" looking better:
  • except for a couple of outliers, ND is practically back to "normal"
  • top-5 graphic:
  • Tennessee remains at #1 but new cases/100,000 coming down
  • Rhode Island remains at #2, followed by California (#3), Arizona (#4), and Indiana (#5)
  • California's rate of climb? By Monday, if not over the weekend, California should clearly be in first place;

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- The Miami Vice Edition -- December 18, 2020

PSA: my greatest luxury is no need for a clock between 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 a.m. Monday through Friday now that I'm retired. I have a busy, busy schedule between 10:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. with Sophia and her remote learning schedule. But after 7:00 p.m. when she goes home, I am free, free, free. I stay up until well after midnight, but often wake up well before 5:00 a.m. eager to see what the market is doing, what the TCM lineup will be for the day, and the news headlines. I then go back to sleep when my cortisone level is at its nadir, 5:30 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. and reluctantly get out of bed at 9:00 a.m., mostly out of "guilt."

But I hate getting out of bed. And the wonderful thing is that I don't have to any more. If you have a cable television wi-fi and a smart tablet, wow. What a luxury. 

It's only been in the past two months or so that I've become hooked on watching television on my smart tablet in bed. 

Spectrum cable is expensive but if one takes advantage of all it has to offer, it is absolutely amazing. Watching television on an Apple iPad is more satisfying than watching it on television. So I can lay in bed, open the iPad, and screen through over 400 stations -- only four of which I actually spend much time on -- I really don't know how many stations there are -- I see numbers in the 400 range but not all "numbers are available" and I've never checked to see if there are stations higher than 4XX.

If you have cable and good wi-fi, you need a smart tablet. 

PSA: for those following the shale revolution, the best blog out there is RBN Energy. There is a new post every day. If you aren't reading RBN Energy, to paraphrase our president-elect, you aren't oily. I don't always read it -- my bad, and a real loss -- but the best part of the RBN Energy blogs are often the music notes at the end of each RBN Energy blog.

 This is so good on so many levels. Wow. I wonder if Elon Musk watched this growing up as a kid? It would explain a lot, assuming one is looking for an explanation in the first place.

Crockett's Theme, (Miami Vice), Jan Hammer

In the video above, look at the choreography that begins at 3:45. I get it took a hundred takes to get it that perfect. And that's just three seconds (at most) of a six-minute video.

Genius. 

Best episodes of Miami Vice. Link here

And for me, from the opening of season 4, episode 20 -- the "halliburton" reference.

Three Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today; WPX Will Report A Huge Topaz Well -- December 18, 2020

Active rigs:

$48.30
12/18/202012/18/201912/18/201812/18/201712/18/2016
Active Rigs1453695140

Three wells come off the confidential list today --  Friday, December 18, 2020:

  • 37318, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HT, Mandaree, t--; cum 25K over ten days;
  • 37212, drl/A,  Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-5, Tioga, t--; cum 94K 10/20;
  • 31003, loc/NC, BR, Cleetwood 31-27TFH-A, Elidah, no production data,

RBN Energy: can a low-cost offshore crude export terminal hook shippers?  Archived.

U.S. crude oil exports are off from the record highs they reached earlier this year, leaving the Gulf Coast even more flush with surplus export capacity than it had been going into 2020. And yet … Energy Transfer is developing an crude export terminal off the coast of Beaumont, TX, that would be capable of fully loading a 2-MMbbl VLCC every day or so. 
Is the company’s Blue Marlin project based simply on a hunch that U.S. oil production and exports will rebound over time and eventually leave PADD 3 short of dock and ship-loading capacity? Or is Energy Transfer’s proposed offshore terminal, with its extensive re-use of existing infrastructure, a cost-efficient way of giving oil-sands, Bakken and other producers more direct access to deep water and the supertankers that long-distance shippers prefer? Today, we discuss what may be behind the seemingly long-shot effort to develop new export capacity in a region that’s already got way too much.

A closer look at that WPX Topax well reporting today:

  • 37318, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HT, Mandaree, t--; cum 25K over ten days; fracked 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; a small frack at 5.2 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass; 25,102 bbls over 10 days extrapolates to 75,306 bbls over 30 days; the Topaz wells are tracked here.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Edition -- December 18, 2020

Politics and C-130s: this article has been sitting on my desktop for several days now, apparently since December 1, 2020, when it was first posted. The article: "Air Force picks next C-130J Super Hercules locations." I didn't really pay much attention to it but with a government shutdown appearing more and more likely and with Senator Mitch McConnell in the center of the storm, all of a sudden, a re-reading of the article was, shall we say, illuminating? 

So, the C-130, the workhorse transport for the USAF, is modified once again, this time the "J" model. It must be really, really expensive because the first models will be released in small numbers to just a handful of bases. And wow, what interesting bases that were chosen.

Number one on the list: Senator Mitch McConnell's home state, Kentucky. The Louisville Air National Guard base will be among the first three sites to get the new "J" model.

Number two on the list: the poster child state for federal pork, West Virginia. I kid you not, the militarily important state of West Virginia is number two on the list, specifically the famous McLaughlin Air National Guard Base. No, I have never heard of it.

Third: Savannah Air National Guard Base in Georgia -- let's see, quick, name the most famous senator from Georgia who was a huge Department of Defense supporter. Democrat. Last name, one consonant, one vowel, four letters altogether.

And finally, if there are any "J" models left after the initial authorization, the Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base, Ft Worth, Texas, will get a few. Number four on the short list. 

By the way, the link up above won't work. Here's the link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/air-force-picks-next-c-130j-super-hercules-locations. 

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Today's Stories That Interest Me

Just three. I had two but an early-morning reader reminded me of a third, the most interesting story of the day.

1. TSLA. Last day of trading before TSLA is added to the S&P 500. After the market closes tonight, TSLA will be added to the S&P 500. We might see record volume of TSLA trades today.

2. The market. Quadruple witching hour. Occurs in the last hour of trading four times a year on the third Friday following the first full moon after the first Sunday in the months of lunar significance: March, June, September, and December. Something like that. 

Interestingly, and I haven't seen anyone comment on it yet, but there is no quadruple witching hour in the month of October. One would think, of all the months October, with Halloween, would deserve it owns quadruple withing hour. There are market futures, and market options; and, mirror-like, there are stock futures and stock options. The yin and yang of trading. The alpha and omega. the Ben and Jerry, futures and options. Traders take positions in options and futures to minimize risk. But at some pint it's time to pay the piper: the traders need to 'unwind" their futures and their options positions before they expire. They need to sell stuff and then in the next breath buy them back. In that split second between selling and buying them back there exists an opportunity for Joe Schmoe to sneak in and buy a contract before the original seller can buy back his original position. But to get it, Joe may have to pay a premium, or not. And, so, in the hectic last hour of trading on that third Friday in that lunar-important month there's a lot of volatility. Volatility is the mother's milk for profit for traders. Anyway, that's how I understand it. My hunch is that I'm not exactly correct on all the details. 

3. The other story? The cost of electricity in New England and New York in the aftermath of winter storm Gail. 

By the way, I was disappointed that I didn't see any reference to one of my favorite actresses back in the 1950s -- the eponymously-named Gale Storm. I've always wanted to use that word on the blog (eponymous) even though it's probably incorrectly used here. 

But that's about the only news that I'm interesting in today. 

Congressional -- or more specially, Senatorial -- shenanigans will continue through the weekend and we won't see white smoke emanating from Mitch McConnell's office in the US Capitol Building until Monday morning, 5:14 a.m. ET. 

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The Book Page

My book this week: On Color, David Scott Kastan, c. 2018. I don't remember how I acquired this strange little book. Somehow it escaped the purging of my library of the past few months. 

Fascinating book on "color," exploring the questions about color that have always intrigued me. For example, is the "red" I see the same "red" you see. 

The book sits on the window sill next to the table where Sophia paints. She has been working with primary colors and secondary colors and so it seemed appropriate to place the book there until I got around to reading it.