Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Huge Build In US Crude Oil In Storage -- October 28, 2020

Weekly EIA report, link here:

• US crude oil stored in the US: 492.4 million bbls
• US crude oil change since previous report: increased by 4.3 million bbls
• US refineries operating at 74.6% -- essentially no change, but down about a percent
  
• distillate fuel production decreased a bit last week
• US crude oil imports showed almost no change week-over-week
• average about 13% less than same four-week period last year
• jet fuel supplied still down almost 44% compared with same period last year

Re-balancing:

Week	Date of Report=	Change	Million Bbls Storage	Over/under 5-year average
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 84	July 15, 2020	-7.5	531.7	17%
Week 85	July 22, 2020	4.9	536.6	19%
Week 86	July 29, 2020	-10.6	526.0	17%
Week 87	August 5, 2020	-7.4	518.6	16%
Week 93	September 16, 2020	-4.4	496.0	14%
Week 94	September 23, 2020	-1.6	494.4	13%
Week 95	September 30, 2020	-2.0	492.4
Week 96	October 7, 2020	0.5	492.9	12%
Week 97	October 15, 2020	-3.8	489.1	11%
Week 98	October 21, 2020	-1.0	488.1	10%
Week 99	October 28, 2020	4.3	492.4	9%

Distillate fuel:

Distillate Fuel Inventories
Week	Date of Report	Change in Millions	Relative to 5-Yr Avg
Week 1	August 26, 2020	1.40	24.0%
Week 2	September 2, 2020	-1.70	23.0%
Week 3	September 10, 2020	-1.70	20.0%
Week 4	September 16, 2020	3.50	22.0%
Week 5	September 23, 2020	-3.40	21.0%
Week 6	September 30, 2020	-3.20	21.0%
Week 7	October 7, 2020	-1.00	23.0%
Week 8	October 15, 2020	-7.20	19.0%
Week 9	October 21, 2020	-3.80	19.0%
Week 10	October 28, 2020	-4.50	17.0%

Imports -- crude oil:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 13	June 10, 2020	6.4	0.000
Week 22	August 12, 2020	5.6	-0.389
Week 23	August 19, 2020	5.7	0.109
Week 24	August 26, 2020	5.9	0.185
Week 25	September 2, 2020	4.9	-1.000
Week 26	September 10, 2020	5.4	0.500
Week 27	September 16, 2020	5.0	-0.416
Week 28	September 23, 2020	5.2	0.160
Week 29	September 30, 2020	5.1	0.045
Week 30	October 7, 2020	5.7	0.600
Week 31	October 15, 2020	5.3	-0.447
Week 32	October 21, 2020	5.1	-0.167
Week 33	October 28, 2020	5.7	-0.131

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 0	3/7/2020	-12.80%
Week 1	3/14/2020	-12.60%
Week 2	3/21/2020	-8.90%
Week 3	3/28/2020	-16.40%
Week 4	4/4/2020	-0.22%
Week 5	4/11/2020	-39.70%
Week 6	4/18/2020	-53.60%
Week 7	4/24/2020	-61.60%
Week 8	5/1/2020	-66.60%
Week 9	5/8/2020	-68.50%
Week 10	5/15/2020	-67.90%
Week 11	May 22, 2020	-66.60%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	-42.10%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	-40.90%
Week 22	August 12, 2020	-45.80%
Week 23	August 19, 2020	-47.60%
Week 24	August 26, 2020	-45.70%
Week 29	September 30, 2020	-46.10%
Week 30	October 7, 2020	-47.50%
Week 31	October 15, 2020	-41.80%
Week 32	October 21, 2020	-45.90%
Week 33	October 28, 2020	-44.30%

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- OPEC Basket Below $40 -- October 28, 2020

First things first: EPD reports in-line.

• EPS: 48 cents vs 48 cents forecast
• net income: $1.084 billion vs 1.045 one year ago
• adjusted EBITDA: $2.06 vs $2.023 one year ago
• 3Q20 cash distribution 0.6% increase compared to year ago
• discounted cash flow provided 1.7 time coverage of the distribution
• pays 10.31%
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Boeing, link here:

• surprise beat
• sales, EPS, cash burn were stronger than expected
• looking to fire another 7,000 workers while another 4,000 to be lost through attrition
• revenue: $14.14 billion, down almost 30% y/y but beating estimates of $13.84 billion
• loss per share: $1.39 vs $1.45 y/y; beating estimate of a loss of $2.08/share

Preview: COP to announce tomorrow, Thursday, October 28, 2020; from SeekingAlpha --

• ConocoPhillips is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Thursday, October 29th, before market open. 
• the consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.31 (-137.8% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $4.98B (-35.8% Y/Y). 
• analyst expects capex of $790.0M. 
• over the last 2 years, COP has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 8 upward revisions and 11 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 3 downward. 
  

CNP: Fitzsimmons, over at SeekingAlpha --

• CenterPoint is said to be considering selling its stake in Enable Midstream. It's new CFO is likely to be strongly in favor of the move.
• the company has also laid out a blueprint to replace coal capacity with solar and wind energy.
• CenterPoint's valuation has been penalized due to its unstable cash flow from Enable.
• Ii both initiatives come to fruition, CenterPoint would become a more pure-play utility and the stock could shake off its estimated 40% discount to peers.

OPEC basket, link here: $39.22.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$37.40	10/28/2020	10/28/2019	10/28/2018	10/28/2017	10/28/2016
Active Rigs	14	59	67	53	34

No wells coming off confidential list -- six months ago, April, 2020, the Chinese flu pandemic panic begins to peak -- efforts to "flatten the curve" in full force. Everything comes to a halt, including new drilling in the Bakken.

RBN Energy: LNG-as-bunker-fuel winning converts as shipping industry eyes future CO2 rules. 

Back in January, when the International Maritime Organization implemented more stringent limits on sulfur emissions for large, ocean-going vessels, the vast majority of shipowners and charterers complied with the new rule — commonly referred to as IMO 2020 — by switching to very low sulfur fuel oil or gasoil. A few others stuck with old, higher-sulfur bunker but installed scrubbers to remove sulfur from the engine exhaust. A third option — fueling ships with LNG — is now gaining traction, in part because it could help shipping companies deal with future IMO mandates on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Orders for new-build LNG-powered vessels and LNG bunker ships are rolling in, and plans for port infrastructure to support LNG bunkering are being implemented. Today, we begin a series on the growing use of LNG in global shipping.