Notes From All Over -- Market Open -- August 28, 2020

Consumer sentiment index: 74.1 vs 72.9 expected. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Another record: S&P 500. Best August since 1986. 1986? Are you kidding me. That was the year I first started investing on my own. Actually, I think I first started investing in 1984, the year that I finally had positive cash flow. LOL. [Later: now CNBC is saying the Dow is having best August since 1984.]

At the open:

• S&P 500: within five points of 3,500
• Dow 30: up 81 points; positive for 2002
  
• NASDAQ: trending toward 11,700; 
• individual stocks:
• UNP: up slightly
• WMT: up 1.6%; up $2.14
• SBUX; up slightly
• AAPL: up $3.00 -- but AAPL price is going to plunge Monday
• MSFT: up $3.10

The grid: rolling blackouts associated with:

• third-world countries;
• piss-poor planning;
• renewable energy scams;

The grid: rolling blackouts --

• if the grid can't handle electricity demand when annual US EV sales is less than 2% of total US auto sales, how does the grid handle electricity demand when annual US EV sales hit 10%, and then 25% projected by 2025
• the link is a pre-Covid link; it would be nice to see an update 
• almost impossible to forecast anything during the pandemic; things are so out of whack
  
• this will be fascinating to watch
• winners, if this develops: electric utilities
  

Notes From All Over -- Pre-Market -- August 28, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market, futures, more records.

• Next week: AAPL share price will plunge. Just a hunch.
• S&P: futures up almost 10 points; will probably push through 3500 next week if not today;
• Dow: futures up 136 points, despite huge new problems for Boeing; Dow enjoying its best August since 1986;
  
• NASDAQ: futures up 3.5 points, will probably push through 12,000 next week if not today;
• Individual stocks, futures:
• WMT, surging, up almost 4%; P/E, 21
• I don't remember if I posted my "lightning strikes" post with regard to the market right now
  
• AAPL: up $3.60
• TSLA: up $60, after being up $85 (4%) yesterday
• Dell: shares up almost 4% after earnings reported 
• a trifecta: Intuit, Salesforce (CRM), and Alteryx (AYX) -- reminder: this is not an investment site
  

Bubble, frothy?

• everybody worried, but;
• Federal Reserve shows no interest in stopping the "bubble" any time soon;
• emphasis is on employment, not inflation
• I don't think I've ever heard such a "transparent" Fed speech before; very clear what Jay Powell said yesterday (August 27, 2020 -- "Jackson Hole" speech)
  
• earnings coming in much stronger than forecast
• 3Q20 GDP could be incredibly surprising on the upside
• if we're "coming out" of Covid-19 -- doesn't that mean something?
• some suggest Covid-19 accelerates 2030 to 2020
• Chase: consumer spending has not dropped off despite end of stimulus spending -- very, veyr surprising
• spending is shifting
• folks saving a lot of money on:
• travel expenses ("no one" is flying)
• gasoline is inexpensive; but even more importantly, people driving less
• e-commerce minimizes driving requirements for shopping
• folks stretched for cash, can delay a new auto purchase for another year
  
• dining out? LOL 
• spending "no" money on professional sports
• spending "no" money at clubs, bars, 
• room and board, transportation costs associated with college; huge 
• much less on out-of-pocket health expenses: no one going to doctor's office if they can avoid it; exposure to Covid-19 patients;
  
• so where are folks spending money?
• on essentials, on-line
  
• cleaning supplies, groceries 
• new computers for distance learning -- kindergarten through college
  

Renewable energy: wind power giant sees profits shrink as competition heats up; 

Most amazing story I saw last night: 2019 should have been the break-out year with regard to EV sales. In fact, EV sales dropped -- and the drop was not subtle. Auto sales across the board will drop in 2020 due to the pandemic.

I've Run Out Of Fingers And Toes -- August 28, 2020

 

September 4, 2020: new EV battery gigafactory manufacturer in Europe -- French supermajor Total.

September 3, 2020: add FCA's Jeep Wrangler to the list.

September 2, 2020: Hyliion. Link here.

List of EV and PIHEV publicly traded companies: list here, updated July 5, 2020.

Now, add these (some of these may be yet be public):

• Lucid Air: luxury EV; direct competition to Tesla.
• Canoo: business-to-consumer EV company; drivers, essentially rent a futuristic looking VW-type van; went public; August 18, 2020; details here;
  
• Canoo pulls ahead of the EV pack iwth "last mile" advantage;
• Xpeng: will go public this week, August 28, 2020.
• EV startup Bollinger plans EV van, 2022;
  

Everyone's waiting for this one to go public: Rivian. 

Other:

• Mercedes gets big electric van order from Aamzon, August 28, 2020, reported today. Google it.

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; Equinor To Stop Drilling In The Bakken --- August 28, 2020

Equinor: to stop drilling in the Bakken.  Equinor, as a Bakken operator, is tracked here. Status of Equinor permits from 2019 and 2020.

Active rigs:

$43.01	8/28/2020	08/28/2019	08/28/2018	08/28/2017	08/28/2016
Active Rigs	11	62	61	55	30

Two wells coming off confidential list -- Friday, August 28, 2020: 79 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 596 for the year

• 36774, SI/A, Whiting, Iverson 11-14-2H, Sanish, t--; cum 61K 6/20; a 20K month;
  
• 33946, loc/NC, MRO, Ranum USA 44-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay,
  

RBN Energy: a propane molecule's journey to Mont Belvieu and beyond, part 3.  

About two-thirds of all of the propane consumed in the U.S. is used as fuel — for indoor and outdoor cooking, home heating, water heaters, drying crops, and running forklifts and fleet vehicles. The other one-third is used as a feedstock for producing ethylene and other petchems. About 95% of the propane supply to meet this demand is produced and processed right here in the U.S. of A., making propane the most American fuel we’ve got. 

But when firing up the grill out back and watching that first propane molecule flash to life, most backyard chefs don’t think much about the long and winding road their propane has traveled. It’s actually a fascinating tale of supply-chain logistics that involves high pressures, bitter cold, wild rides up and down tall towers, storage deep underground, and, of course, trains, trucks, and tanks. We think it’s a tale that needs to be told, and that’s what we’ve been doing in this update of another Greatest Hit blog.

Another Incredibly Busy Day -- August 28, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

WMT: surging. We've talked about this before. 

Refinery update: EIA, August 28, 2020 -- changing demand for petroleum products has led to operational changes at US refineries. Huge amount of information. This will be a stand-alone topic by the end of the day. 

OPEC basket, link here: down a bit; drops below $46. Stands at $45.81. No end in sight for Saudi's woes. Putin -- that would be Russia -- says his country's budget is based on $42 oil. See next data point.

Putin says Russia is doing just fine: link here.

At the beginning of the oil price crisis, caused – among other things – by the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia – Russia’s Finance Ministry said that Moscow could live with $25 oil for years as it had enough resources to cover budget shortfalls amid oil prices at $25-30 a barrel for six to ten years. 

The $42.40 price of Russia’s flagship export grade, Urals, is the price at which Russia’s budget is balanced, the Russian Finance Ministry said, noting that the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the National Wealth Fund, had as of March 1 liquid assets worth US$150.1 billion, or 9.2 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product.

Putin says Russia is doing just fine. Or not. Same link.

The oil price crash, along with the coronavirus-driven global recession, will result in Russia’s economy shrinking this year by 6 percent, or by the most in 11 years, the World Bank said in its latest economic report on Russia last month.

Quick, pop quiz. Background: back in 1973, when total global energy supply was more than half the current supply, coal held a share of 24.5%; oil, 46.2%; and, natural gas, 16%.

Now, fast forward to 2018, the most recent year for IEA data. Match the 2018 percent with the fuel:

• fuel:
• oil
• natural gas
• coal
• share of total global economy:
• 31.6%
• 26.9%
• 22.8%
• The answer will be posted later.

Answer here.