Friday, August 28, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Pre-Market -- August 28, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market, futures, more records.

  • Next week: AAPL share price will plunge. Just a hunch.
  • S&P: futures up almost 10 points; will probably push through 3500 next week if not today;
  • Dow: futures up 136 points, despite huge new problems for Boeing; Dow enjoying its best August since 1986;
  • NASDAQ: futures up 3.5 points, will probably push through 12,000 next week if not today;
  • Individual stocks, futures:
    • WMT, surging, up almost 4%; P/E, 21
      • I don't remember if I posted my "lightning strikes" post with regard to the market right now
    • AAPL: up $3.60
    • TSLA: up $60, after being up $85 (4%) yesterday
    • Dell: shares up almost 4% after earnings reported 
    • a trifecta: Intuit, Salesforce (CRM), and Alteryx (AYX) -- reminder: this is not an investment site

Bubble, frothy?

  • everybody worried, but;
    • Federal Reserve shows no interest in stopping the "bubble" any time soon;
    • emphasis is on employment, not inflation
    • I don't think I've ever heard such a "transparent" Fed speech before; very clear what Jay Powell said yesterday (August 27, 2020 -- "Jackson Hole" speech)
    • earnings coming in much stronger than forecast
    • 3Q20 GDP could be incredibly surprising on the upside
    • if we're "coming out" of Covid-19 -- doesn't that mean something?
    • some suggest Covid-19 accelerates 2030 to 2020
    • Chase: consumer spending has not dropped off despite end of stimulus spending -- very, veyr surprising
    • spending is shifting
    • folks saving a lot of money on:
      • travel expenses ("no one" is flying)
      • gasoline is inexpensive; but even more importantly, people driving less
      • e-commerce minimizes driving requirements for shopping
        • folks stretched for cash, can delay a new auto purchase for another year
      • dining out? LOL 
      • spending "no" money on professional sports
      • spending "no" money at clubs, bars, 
      • room and board, transportation costs associated with college; huge 
      • much less on out-of-pocket health expenses: no one going to doctor's office if they can avoid it; exposure to Covid-19 patients;
    • so where are folks spending money?
      • on essentials, on-line
        • cleaning supplies, groceries 
        • new computers for distance learning -- kindergarten through college

Renewable energy: wind power giant sees profits shrink as competition heats up

Most amazing story I saw last night: 2019 should have been the break-out year with regard to EV sales. In fact, EV sales dropped -- and the drop was not subtle. Auto sales across the board will drop in 2020 due to the pandemic.

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