Jet Fuel Delivered Drops A Whopping 67% -- May 6, 2020

You've know we've had enough of the CDC and Wuhan flu when:

• the task force is shut down;
• Apple re-opens;
• California is forced to borrow money to cover unemployment benefits, but has enough money expand benefits for illegal aliens;
• when killer wasps become the new meme;

UK scientist who pushed "lock down," busted for having married girlfriend over to his house. Link everywhere. Best part of the story, from the married woman:

The woman lives with her husband and children in another home, the newspaper reported. Friends of the woman told the paper that she considered her household and Ferguson's residence to be one.

Comment: I lived in the England for quite some time during my time with the USAF. It was my impression the Brits had a different attitude regarding "affairs." Not necessarily all bad. 

Frost in May?

Hey, wait, don't go away! The weekly EIA petroleum report will be released within the next thirty minutes! Link here.

• US crude oil in storage (at least that which we know about): 532.2 million bbls (12% above the already fat five-year average for this time of year);
• US crude oil in storage increased by only 4.6 million bbls week/week;
• US refineries are operating at 70.5%; capacity:
• US crude oil imports: 5.7 million bopd; up by 410,000 bopd from the previous week; four-week average: 5.4 million bbls, 20% less than same four-week period last year;
• "Holy turbine, Batman." Jet fuel delivered fell by 67% year-over-year (four week average);

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 68	March 18, 2020	2.0	453.7
Week 69	March 25, 2020	1.6	455.4
Week 70	April 1, 2020	13.8	469.2
Week 71	April 8, 2020	15.2	484.4
Week 72	April 15, 2020	19.2	503.6
Week 72	April 22, 2020	15.0	518.6
Week 73	April 29, 2020	9.0	527.6
Week 74	May 6, 2020	4.6	532.2

Imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Week Ending	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 3	April 1, 2020	6.0	-0.070
Week 4	April 8, 2020	5.9	-0.173
Week 5	April 15, 2020	5.7	-0.194
Week 6	April 22, 2020	5.6	-0.700
Week 7	April 29, 2020	5.3	0.365
Week 8	May 6, 2020	5.7	0.410

 
Jet fuel:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Week Ending	Change
Week 0	March 11, 2020	-12.80%
Week 1	March 18, 2020	-12.60%
Week 2	March 25, 2020	-8.90%
Week 3	April 1, 2020	-16.40%
Week 4	April 8, 2020	-0.22%
Week 5	April 15, 2020	-39.70%
Week 6	April 22, 2020	-53.60%
Week 7	April 29, 2020	-61.60%
Week 8	May 6, 2020	-66.60%

Best Ever Cartoon Page -- Ever -- May 6, 2020

Link here.

Reminder -- DFW Today -- US Navy Blue Angels Fly Over -- May 6, 2020

Notes From All Over, Early Morning Edition -- May 6, 2020

Breaking news: I see "Twitter" just suspended "Breaking News" again. Hopefully it's just temporary. Most interesting: I saw the "suspension" in real-time. I've never caught that before. Twitter lived up to its name -- twittering while "Breaking News" was being suspended.

Must have made it through the night. RBG. 

Fashion company: the apparent popularity of YouTube unboxing videos has always fascinated me. Apparently so with someone else. See this "Dramatic Opening of Apple's $700 Mac Pro After-Purchase Wheels Kit." I used to call Apple a fashion company (ala Gucci); I still do. The Apple Watch was a great, great example. Some past posts about the Apple Watch:

• Angela Ahrendts gone at Apple, May 7, 2019;
• a functional device, May 6, 2019;
• Apple's iPhone sales exceed Amazon's online retail stores, September 9, 2018;
• commentary, July 24, 2015;
• strong interest, April10, 2015;
• the moat, March 30, 2015;
• the $10,000 Apple Watch, March 10, 2015;
• widening the moat, March 9, 2015;
• Apple is a fashion company, September 11, 2014;

$700 for Mac Pro wheels: didn't the USAF get a lot of attention over that $600 hammer?

Firefox 76 now available. 

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 6, 2020

NDIC: file reports not yet scanned in for wells coming off confidential list today, 2:41 p.m. CT, May 6, 2020.

Pyrrhic victory:

Can you imagine how the rest of the OPEC countries are doing? Like Nigeria? 

Other news:

OPEC Basket, link here: coming back strong -- now at at  $21.44. 

"Holy rotary, Batman!": Chevron down to five rigs in the Permian.

Shale producers "back in" at $30 oil. Behind a paywall over at Bloomberg, this story is now over at Rigzone.

Shell to divest Pennsylvania assets: a reader alerted me to this story before it was a story.

Off-shore storage: India.

*********************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$24.49	5/6/2020	05/06/2019	05/06/2018	05/06/2017	05/06/2016
Active Rigs	24	62	62	49	27

Two permits coming off confidential list today -- 

Wednesday, May 6, 2020: 21 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 297 for the year:

• 36589, drl, Rimrock, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4H3, South Fork, t--; cum 14K in 31 days;
• 36550, drl, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum --;

RBN Energy: Cheniere's midship set to increase SCOOP/STACK gas flows to gulf coast. Archived.

The initial start-up of Cheniere Energy’s Midship Pipeline two weeks ago occurred in a radically different market environment than when the project was conceived. As the first greenfield, large-diameter natural gas pipeline project out of the SCOOP/STACK in years, it was meant to provide relief for the once takeaway-constrained producers in the Central Oklahoma production region and connect what was until the past year a rapidly growing supply region to emerging LNG export demand along the Gulf Coast, including at Cheniere’s own Corpus Christi, TX, terminal. Instead, SCOOP/STACK production hit the skids last fall, and rig counts since then have plunged to the lowest levels in well over a decade. On the delivery end of the pipe, U.S. LNG export demand is being challenged by a global gas glut and disappearing margins to international markets. Still, the Midship project’s initial capacity of 1.1 Bcf/d is more than 80% subscribed by firm shippers, and the new pipeline is slated to provide some of the most economic routes out of the SCOOP/STACK. Today, we provide an update on the project’s start-up and the changed market environment it’s facing.

When Cheniere filed its Section 7c application with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in May 2017 to build its 1.44-Bcf/d Midship Pipeline project, associated gas production from the crude oil, liquids and condensate-focused SCOOP and STACK plays in the Woodford Shale’s Cana region (a.k.a. the Cana-Woodford) — a part of the greater Anadarko Basin — was on a resounding upswing. Producers were flocking to the play and ramping up activity, even as oil prices were still recovering from the 2014-15 collapse and barely approaching $50/bbl. All signs at the time pointed to robust economics. The value-add of multiple product streams — crude oil and the associated gas and NGLs emerging from the wells, combined with the well performance and drilling efficiencies achieved in the region — signaled some of the most attractive economics in the country for producers. These included healthy double-digit internal rates of return (IRRs) — even at sub-$50/bbl crude oil prices. In fact, for a while there, SCOOP and STACK were two of the fastest-growing shale producing regions in the U.S., and it appeared at the time that the only thing that would slow things down would be the emergence of midstream constraints as midstreamers were struggling to keep up with  the rapid production gains.