Market Shenanigans -- March 30, 2015

I look askance at anyone who suggests the stock market is not "run" by computer algorithms.

How else does one explain the 300-point rise in the market today? Nothing has changed. Whether or not the Iranian deal is signed is a crap shoot, although it is obvious President Obama and SecState John Kerry are willing to sign anything to declare victory (wasn't that the John Kerry on Vietnam: "just leave and declare victory"?).

Greece is still the same, but if it was on the back burner a few months ago, it's not even in the kitchen today, as far as pundits are concerned. One can find a story on Greece today but it's not easy. Before his election, the new Greek leader said he would no longer accept any free cash from Germany; this past week he has been scrambling to get that cash to pay the bills.

I now understand why Obama favors Shi-ite Iran over the Sunnis, his own heritage.

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The market is surging, up 300 points, and Tesla continues to fall. It's down a percent in early trading. I think the oil companies are doing even better than that. Shoot, even First Solar is doing better, up about 1.5% in early trading.

Apple is starting to announce the process in which to get an Apple watch. On launch day, one cannot simply walk into an Apple store and buy a watch. One has two options: a) order on-line; b) set up an appointment on-line to meet with a Apple employee at a pre-arranged time in an Apple store.

The in-store reservations are scheduled for 15 minutes for the least expensive watch, and 30 minutes for the $10,000 - $17,000 watch. I had planned to buy the $17,000 watch but could not imagine being bothered by an Apple salesperson for 30 minutes.

There are several reasons for the AppleWatch buying process. Most importantly, it is hoped that this will minimize returns. More importantly, perhaps, it will also eliminate the television coverage of no one standing in line outside the Apple stores on the day of the AppleWatch launch. The AppleWatch story is not going to be anywhere near the iPhone sales volume. This process makes it almost impossible for pundits/analysts to get any clue to how many watches are actually being sold. The AppleWatch has nothing to do with volume or the "bottom line" at this point: it's all about the moat. The entire AppleWatch line widens the moat, but the top end defines Apple as a fashion company, separating it from the also-ran technology companies. Yes, it's a big deal. Apple is up about 1.5% almost 2% in early trading. 

EPD is up a percent. ENB flat (barely green). I don't follow the Bakken companies much any more -- as far as the stock market is concerned, for two reasons. First, too depressing. Second, and more more importantly, I'm waiting for the dust to settle, or as others might say, the Hillary re-set. We haven't see the re-set yet. Current prices for Bakken operators that trade publicly have no connection with reality at this point. Too much in flux.

This past week "they" said the railroads would be under pressure. UNP is up 1.5% today.

Over the weekend I started reading the 50th Anniversary issue of Berkshire Hathaway's annual report. Glossy golden cover. I didn't read much; seemed to be more of the same. The little I read suggests Charlie Munger saved Warren Buffett's hide forty-some years ago, but I probably mis-read.

The most interesting thing that came out of the BRK annual report was the fact that Warren Buffett never gave up, and that he was dealing with very small amounts of cash (relatively speaking) compared to where he is today. That alone speaks volumes; it couldn't have been all luck.

Anyway, enough of this. I don't watch television, so I have no idea what CNBC is saying to explain the 250-point surge. I see that Yahoo!Finance attributes it to ... drum roll ... more stimulus talk ... in Asia.

Wow, gazillions in stimulus -- some irony here -- a transfer of wealth -- all those governments printing money to put into the economy to keep the rich people rich.

Back to the market -- investors in Madison Square Garden have done very, very well.

Remember, this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

Oh, that's right. I was going to say that after reading a few pages of the BRK's 50th anniversary issue of annual reports, I went back to reading Dan Jones' new book, Wars of the Roses, which reminds me. Quick: what's #2 on the Wall Street Journal's hardcover non-fiction list?

This is an interesting list: Wall Street Journal's sixteen books for spring, 2015: it includes ... drum roll...Daniel Yergin's The Prize. It's an old book; maybe it's been updated with a new introduction or forward or epilogue. I still have my old copy and read a little bit of it Saturday. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was all about oil. I might post a bit of that later; very enlightening. How the Japanese failed at Pearl Harbor.

Oh, back to that #2 hardcover, non-fiction book. It's also #2 on the New York Times best-seller list:
published by the South Dakota State Historical Society, Pioneer Girl, by Laura Ingalls Wilder. The writer's biography, the source of her Little House on the Prairie, completed in 1930 and never published, is annotated by a biographer.