All Politics, Part 1 -- Post-South Carolina Analysis -- February 29, 2020

One night only: by Tuesday, midnight, what happened in South Carolina tonight will be forgotten. But wow, Bernie's supporters have to be shaken and stirred. Bloomberg can see the writing on the wall. It's a two-man race and Bloomberg's not in it.


Bat Out Of Hell, Meatloaf
South Carolina: less than one minute after the polls closed in South Carolina, MSNBC declared Joe Biden the winner. Clyburn is still the king-maker in South Carolina. [Later: Jim Carville just said that -- after I posted my note.] Biden got 60% of the black vote in the palmetto state. The questions: how big a spread between Biden/Bernie? Will anyone else get any delegates? Since this is the last state that Biden wins, we still get back to a brokered convention. Which -- by the way -- will there be a convention if coronavirus is still a concern? Hillary? Re-calculating; re-calculating; re-calculating.

South Carolina: the big story? I think this is the biggest story and it is not being reported. Steyer spent his fortune and reputation in South Carolina (and Nevada) and what did he get for all that? Zero, zilch, nada, nil delegates. He will remain a candidate through Super Tuesday, but then it's over. He has three options:

• color inside the lines; be a good sport; go to the DNC convention, and support the Democrat nominee;
• continue to run anti-Trump ads but as a non-party billionaire; with no future as a federally-elected official;
• fade away; call it a day; 

South Carolina: the big story: pollsters. "Everyone" predicted a Biden win but there was some doubt. No one predicted a blow-out. Biden delivered a blow-out. 

South Carolina: the big story. Caucuses are dead. Weeks after the Iowa caucuses we still don't really know the final count; forty-eight hours after the Nevada caucuses, less than 100% of the precincts were reporting. South Carolina: within a minute of the polls closing, we had the winner, and no one contesting/questioning the numbers. I bet even Iowans are sick and tired of caucuses. Later: it's not even 10:00 p.m. Central Time and 99% of the South Carolina vote is in. Iowans better never call the South backward again. LOL.

Link here.

South Carolina: the biggest laugh. After the huge Biden win, some talking heads actually suggested Bloomberg might get out of the race. LOL. Bloomberg doesn't see the race starting until Super Tuesday. At the end of tonight, Bernie will have 62 delegates, Biden will have 52 delegates. The Democrat candidate needs 1,991 delegates. [Later: Rachel Maddow is still suggesting that Bloomberg should drop out before Super Tuesday. Give me a break. That was his plan all along: to start on Super Tuesday. Is Rachel Maddow as smart as people think she is. Is she a closet-Biden supporter?]

South Carolina: of course it's the big political story today, but still, the networks, especially MSNBC seem to be really, really over-playing this story. Fifty-four delegates; one state; a southern state? Give me a break. Other than as a "primary state," is South Carolina even important in a national election? 2012: Trump: 55%; Hillary: 41%.

African-Americans: seem to be getting way too much press. Bernie would say it's the Latino/Latina vote. I would agree.

South Carolina: the big story. Some folks wondered if today's turnout would beat the 2016 turnout; no one thought today's turnout would come close to the record turnout in 2008 --

• 2016: 370,000
• 2008: record turnout -- 515,000
• 2020: 505,000 with 96% reporting -- absolutely incredible --

Right now, with about 53% reporting, Biden may sweep the board; Bernie will barely hit 15%. Biden might win every county in South Carolina, including the college towns.

And finally, the most interesting story to watch Tuesday -- how will Bloomberg do -- remember, he has spent almost $600 million (or maybe more). That's more than a half-billion dollars and he's not been on one ballot yet this primary season. 

Several XTO Tobacco Garden Wells Off-Line; Unable To Find Explanation -- February 29, 2020

The XTO Tobacco Garden / Arnold wells.

In late February, 2020, I noted that several XTO wells in Tobacco Garden had been taken off line. I cannot find any reason why these wells would have been taken off line.

I just checked the five XTO wells in Tobacco Garden that are still on the confidential list, that are in the same area: nothing has changed. They are still on the conf list, and there is still a rig on site, on the pad, #36627.

The four wells with no production in 12/19:

• 30256, Tobacco Garden 11X-17E;
• 23839, Leiseth 24X-22E;
• 21208, Jore 34-22NWH; and, 
• 20719, Bergem 44-28NWH;

The five wells in the general area that are still on confidential; on the same pad, and with a rig on site, permit number followed by API:

• 33631: 33-053-09121
• 36630: 33-053-09120
• 36629: 33-053-09119
• 36628: 33-053-09118
• 36627: 33-053-09117 

Checking FracFocus for two of the above, no frack data posted. 

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 29, 2020

South Carolina: less than one minute after the polls closed in South Carolina, MSNBC declared Joe Biden the winner. Clyburn is the king-maker in South Carolina. Biden got 60% of the black vote in that state. The questions: how big a spread between Biden/Bernie. Did anyone else get any delegates. Since this is the last state that Biden wins, we still get back to brokered convention. Which by the way -- will there be a convention if coronavirus is still a concern? Hillary? Re-calculating; re-calculating; re-calculating.

South Carolina: the big story? Steyer spent his fortune and reputation and what did he get for all that? Zero, zilch, nada, nil delegates.

Farmers: apparently President Trump signed the bill that eliminated the estate tax ("death tax") on small farms, small businesses. I had not heard that. I don't know if that's accurate. I will check that later.

Coronavirus: absolutely fascinating. Re-posting from February 25, 2020 -- this is the third time this has been posted, I believe. It's that interesting. The original post, and two re-postings:

Is this a bio experiment gone awry in Wuhan?

The Chinese physician who first called attention to this died? Is he the only physician that has died of Covid-19? Exactly what were the circumstances of his death? How many other physicians have died? I haven't heard of any others.

How did a "country physician" come up with the cause of this brand new infectious disease, seemingly overnight? Explanations for most unexplained cases like this are preceded by four articles in the Lancet, two articles in The New England Journal of Medicine, and a breakthrough article in Nature. But in this case, no research articles, but simply a "country doctor" discovering the cause. And then he's dead; within days. Shoot, the incubation period is two weeks. Jeffrey Epstein did not hang himself.

Many, many more questions. The questions fall into two categories. The first category is for Sherlock Holmes to answer: where/how/why/when did the virus appear. I think there is enough circumstantial evidence for Sherlock to start working some theories. In fact, my hunch is that Sherlock Holmes would have already sorted this out. It's too bad Richard Feynman is no longer with us. He, too, would have it figured out. Algore, the inventor of the internet and discoverer of global warming -- I'm surprised we haven't heard from him.

Now, this from ZeroHedge today:

Here is a quick recap of what has happened so far in China:

• The deadly Covid-19, i.e., SARS-like coronavirus, originated as a byproduct of banned "gain of function" genetic engineering conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Contrary to the conventionally accepted official narrative, it then spread, presumably by accident, to a nearby food market, where it infected patient zero and the rest is history (in the meantime, anyone who reported that the virus was sourced at the Wuhan Level-4 biolab was ostracized, shunned, threatened, arrested or simply ordered to retract their statement or research). [See below.]

• In the early days of the pandemic, in hopes of avoiding a panic, Beijing actively rounded up any doctors who tried to sound the alarm on the danger that the coronavirus posed. Only three weeks later, around Jan 20, did China start reporting official numbers associated with the disease.

• Just days after it "broke the seal" on the information blackout, Beijing quarantined over 60 million people in major Chinese cities, in hopes of avoiding a further panic, and preventing further spread of the virus. Ultimately, over 700 million people - half of China's population - was put on some form of lock down. Panic had by now spread across the mainland, as virtually nobody in China had any idea what the facts were aside from the government's propaganda.

• As a result of the widespread quarantine, China's economy came to a complete halt and for weeks after the Lunar new year, various high-frequency indicators showed that the economy has failed to reboot. Realizing that an economic paralysis could be just as devastating for its primary objective of preserving social calm and stability, Beijing had a change of heart.

• Faced with a catastrophic dilemma, and forced to choose between either economic collapse due to mass quarantines, or economic collapse due to a frozen economy - with the bulk of China's SMEs which are responsible for 60% of China's GDP, facing insolvency in 2-3 months unless things return to normal - Beijing reversed track and started to openly manipulate the coronavirus data in mid-February to contain the widespread panic and give the impression that it had the pandemic under control, even though periodic reports demonstarting just how Beijing was lying about the real numbers and occasional "changes in definition" which resulted in a surge in "new cases" confirmed to the population how Beijing was purposefully underreporting the full extent of the pandemic. This only made the distrust worse, not helping to contain the rising panic.

And that's just the beginning. Unless I missed it, ZeroHedge does not mention that the Wuhan physician who first identified the cause of that "first death," was said to have died of the disease. As many have said, Jeffrey Epstein didn't hang himself.

In addition, just earlier today, I said that folks would start calling this a pandemic sooner than later. Seasonal flu -- with millions infected in the US, and with tens of thousands of deaths from seasonal flu in the US -- seasonal flu does not meet the definition of epidemic in this country, according to the CDC. 

ZeroHedge is permanently banned from twitter.

Russia had its Chernobyl.

Japan had its Fukushima.

Now, China, Wuhan flu.

Coronavirus -- Global Health -- Public Health -- Fascinating -- February 29, 2020

February 29, 2020: the daily statistics won't be out for about eight hours, but right now the big news is in the US. Data, as of 2:17 p.m. Central Time, February 29, 2020:

• US: five new cases (now at 68), and the first death, an individual in Washington state with minimal additional details.
• China holding steady at around 50 new deaths each day;
• South Korea with a whopping 813 new cases, far more than what China even had (433), today;
• despite that huge increase in new cases, South Korea is reporting only one new death (one can expect new deaths to come over the next few days)
• Italy: with about half as many new cases (239) as China; considering the difference in population, that's very, very alarming for Italy; in addition, eight new deaths in Italy compared to just that one new death in South Korea;
• Iran: statistics almost identical with Iran; total cases almost doubled overnight; 43 total deaths; 9 new deaths;
• Diamond Princess: no new cases; no new deaths;

I keep looking for a historical precedent. It's very possible the 1918 influenza pandemic is the best historical model. See "1918 "Spanish" influenza" link below. The takeaways:

• a pandemic will be declared within six month; and, 
• the pandemic will burn itself out before a vaccine is widely available

One definition of a pandemic:

• when an epidemic spreads throughout the world

What is the CDC's definition of "seasonal flu epidemic"? Re-posting from yesterday:

From the CDC, week 8, ending February 22, 2020:

• overall cumulative hospitalization rate for the season increased to 53/100,000
• the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.9%, which is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%

My hunch: "this" will be called an epidemic a lot more quickly than "they call it" for "seasonal flu." It is very likely, it will be called a pandemic before "epidemic" criteria are met.

******************************************

Viruses, Flu, Corona, and All That Jazz

New links:

• Genome sequence of the SARS-associated coronavirus, Science, May 30, 2003.
• Origin and evolution of the 1918 "Spanish" influenza virus hemagglutinin gene, National Institutes of Health, February 16, 1999.
• Genes that made 1918 flu lethal isolated, ScienceDaily, December 31, 2008.

Re-posting from February 2, 2020:

A reader called me out -- and rightly so -- on my flippant remarks regarding coronavirus. So, where do we stand on this issue? Here are a few links:

• Relax! Coronavirus is less dangerous than the "flu," says epidemic expert -- CCN
• High flu activity spreads across US as virus claims fourteen (14) more children -- ABC News
• Worried about coronavirus? In the US, "flu" is a bigger threat -- NPR
• US on track for one of the worst flu seasons in decades -- CNN
• Weekly US Influenza surveillance report (FluView) -- CDC
• Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier, more widespread -- USA Today
• Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV): implications for virus origins and receptor binding -- The Lancet

Case studies for the future, from an earlier post:

• South Korea: will be incredibly interesting from many aspects; 
• South Korea may indeed be "the model" for the US;
• Italy: could be the model for the EU;
  
• Iran: third world country; method of containment: trucks driving down city streets spraying germicides;
• Russia: a fairly closed society;
• Turkey; complete and total disregard for possible consequences; institutes policies to ensure "inevitability" that coronavirus spreads;

Re-posting, from February 25, 2020:

Is this a bio experiment gone awry in Wuhan?

The Chinese physician who first called attention to this died? Is he the only physician that has died of Covid-19? Exactly what were the circumstances of his death? How many other physicians have died? I haven't heard of any others.

How did a "country physician" come up with the cause of this brand new infectious disease, seemingly overnight? Explanations for most unexplained cases like this are preceded by four articles in the Lancet, two articles in The New England Journal of Medicine, and a breakthrough article in Nature. But in this case, no research articles, but simply a "country doctor" discovering the cause. And then he's dead; within days. Shoot, the incubation period is two weeks. Jeffrey Epstein did not hang himself.

Many, many more questions. The questions fall into two categories. The first category is for Sherlock Holmes to answer: where/how/why/when did the virus appear. I think there is enough circumstantial evidence for Sherlock to start working some theories. In fact, my hunch is that Sherlock Holmes would have already sorted this out. It's too bad Richard Feynman is no longer with us. He, too, would have it figured out. Algore, the inventor of the internet and discoverer of global warming -- I'm surprised we haven't heard from him.

The second category, the public health angle, which is now the "only" medical angle: if you were "king/queen for a day" and could institute your plan to control this infectious disease how/what would you do? What policies would you dictate? 

US lab, from wiki:

Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML) is part of the NIH Intramural Research Program and is located in Hamilton, Montana.

Operated by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, RML conducts research on maximum containment pathogens such as Ebola as well as research on prions and intracellular pathogens such as Coxiella burnetti and Francisella tularensis.

RML operates one of the few Biosafety level 4 laboratories in the United States, as well as Biosafety level 3 and ABSL3/4 laboratories.

In February 2020, electron microscope images of Novel Coronovirus strain COVID-19 were collected at RML.

From globalbiodefense:

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML) has produced images of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, previously known as 2019-nCoV), the causative pathogen of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), on its scanning and transmission electron microscopes this week.

Note that the images do not look much different from MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, which emerged in 2012) or the original SARS-CoV (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, which emerged in 2002).

That is not surprising: The spikes on the surface of coronaviruses give this virus family its name – corona, which is Latin for “crown,” and most any coronavirus will have a crown-like appearance.

RML investigator Emmie de Wit, Ph.D., provided the virus samples as part of her studies. Microscopist Elizabeth Fischer produced the images, and the RML visual medical arts office digitally colorized the images.

More links:

• rate of transmission compared to "SARS - 1";

Alexa -- I'm Still Learning The Internets, Too -- February 29, 2020

I went over to the granddaughters' house about 9:00 a.m. this morning, to take Sophia, the 5-y/o, going on sixteen, to gymnastics.

Downstairs in the kitchen Alexa was playing the songs from Frozen 2.

Sophia came down from upstairs, and immediately heard Frozen 2 playing but was upset that someone had not paused it when her favorite song was playing, as she had asked (which I found out later). [Wow, that's a run-on sentence.]

She said, "Oh, no, why didn't Mom pause it."

Me: "I don't think you can 'pause' Alexa."

Sophia: "Here, hold my milk. Alexa, pause."

And, of course, the music stopped until Sophia told Alexa to start again.

Later, about half an hour later, we are driving to gymnastics. From the booster seat in the back, Sophia asks me if I'm still learning "Alexa."

I said I guess I was (since I didn't know Alexa could pause).

She then said, rubbing more salt into that wound, "would you like me to teach you?"

LOL.