Thursday, December 22, 2016

Natural Gas, Gasoline Demand -- December 22, 2016

Natural gas, prices leap -- from print edition, WSJ:
Natural-gas prices rose Wednesday (yesterday) more than in an session since last year, with traders betting that winter cold is eating into a longstanding glut. Data points:
  • up 27.9 cents in last session; 8.6%
  • up to $3.542 / Btu
  • largest gain by percentage since December 28, 2015
  • largest gain by dollar value since January, 2015
Natural gas drawdown -- from CNBC a few minutes ago (9:37 a.m.):
most recent report:
  • 209 bcf drawdown (dynamic link here)
  • about 4x y-o-y (same time last year)
  • about 2x 5-year average
  • prices: big move over last three months -- about a 20% increase over past 3 months
New England natural gas -- ISO Express (dynamic link here)


Gasoline demand (we've discussed the relationship between job reports and gasoline demand before):


Now That The Election Is Over -- Jobless Claims Jump to Six-Month High; Executive Order: My Daughters Won't Work On Wall Street -- Obama -- December 22, 2016

GDP, final revision, 3Q16: revised up to 3.5% gain.

GDP, latest update, 4Q16: latest update, December 16, 2016:
Latest forecast: 2.6 percent.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.6 percent on December 16, up from 2.4 percent on December 14.
The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jobs -- From Bloomberg:
  • forecast: 257,000
  • actual: 275,000
  • four-week average: 263,750

Cao Dwang, Shanghai, to Ohio. $600-million investment; Chinese auto glass tycoon; cites high taxes and soaring labor costs at home; comes after Trump threatened to declare Beijing a currency manipulator and slap 45% punitive tariffs on Chinese imports to protect American jobs.   

Executive order: president says his daughters will not work on Wall Street. I can't make this stuff up.

Free market capitalism ...  in Mexico? Mexico will end price controls on gasoline.  Prices at the pump could increase as much as 20%. Move will be phased in, beginning in the northern border states.

Along that same line ... US refiners cash in on Mexico's record fuel imports.
The fuel trade could top a million barrels per day (bpd) at times in 2017 as Mexico becomes increasingly dependent on the United States for strategic energy supplies and providing business worth more than $15 billion a year to refiners such as Valero, Marathon Petroleum and Citgo Petroleum.

The rise in Mexico's fuel imports reflects an economy that, after expanding for 27 quarters in a row even amid a public austerity plan, has been unable to increase its refining output to satisfy the consistent growth of its energy demand.

It has led to rapid reversal in energy trade between the two countries. In 2016, crude exporter Mexico will be a net oil importer from the United States for the first time as shipments of refined fuel heading south outnumber shipments of crude to the north, according to the U.S. EIA.
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The Apple Page

The big story over at Apple for quite some time -- the past several months -- has been the new wireless Apple earbuds. These were critical now that Apple was phasing out the 3.5 mm headphone jack. Apple missed on its delivery; many rumors why.

The ear buds are now shipping. Apple fans are ecstatic.

But this is what is very, very interesting. Normally on the #1 Apple message board there is a lot of negativity against Apple and Apple products for any number of reasons. Not so with the ear buds. They are getting incredible press. Here is the take by the WSJ:
We tested Apple’s long-awaited Q-tips—um, earbuds—versus other truly wireless headphones on five sets of ears. Geoffrey A. Fowler found one resounding winner.
The story:
I’m the first to admit that Apple’s new AirPod earphones resemble Q-tips dangling from my lobes. Or maybe robotic ear antennas.
But I think you’ll get over looking like a cyborg and want a pair anyway.
Before they finally started shipping this week, I had the chance to use a set of $160 AirPods for three months. They aren’t perfect, but they quickly became my favorite earbuds. I’ll go further: AirPods are Apple’s best new product in years.
Just in time for Christmas. And Hanukkah. 

Oil And Gas -- 2016 In Review -- Forbes -- December 22, 2016

If you have time to read only one story today, this might be it: "the oil and gas situation, 2016 year in review." It begins:
In the history of the oil and natural gas industry in the United States, 2016 will be remembered as one of the most eventful in terms of major market developments, asset transactions and developments in public policy. 
The writer's top observations:
  • the Permian Basin exploded
  • costs of drilling plunged
  • EURs soared
  • hundreds of companies filed for bankruptcy
  • fracking was exonerated
  • anti-development moved from upstream to midstream
  • LNG exports ramped up
  • oil exports almost doubled
  • the US became a net exporter of natural gas
  • OPEC "surrendered"
And then this -- PEOTUS nominees:
Along with him will come nominees like former Texas Gov. Rick Perry for Secretary of Energy, Montana Congressman Ryan Zinke for Secretary of the Interior, Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt as EPA Administrator, and ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson for Secretary of State.  If that looks like a pretty pro-oil and gas lineup to you, trust me, you are not alone.
The writer mentions only a very few companies by name. One that he mentioned: Oasis, with regard to plunging drilling costs.

Peak Oil? Food For Thought -- Platts -- December 22, 2016

Some great statistics in this article. The theme: despite the current glut in oil, much of that due to the shale revolution, demand is likely to put stress on supply in the future. It appears, bottom line, IEA has simply moved the "peak oil" concern from 2020 to 2040. Some data points:
  • 1998: IEA forecast peak oil in 2020
  • how far was the IEA off? IEA projected demand at 111 bopd by 202; in fact, current demand is struggling to hit 99 bopd
  • today: IEA says CAPEX slumped in past two years due to price downturn; price downturn "pulled the rug out from under upstream spending and investment decisions": IEA sees a potential oil supply "gap" of 16 million bopd by 2025
  • the gap of 16 million bopd by 2025 threatens new spike in oil prices
  • global tight oil: 4.6 million bopd in 2015; will peak at 7.5 million bopd in 2035
  • IEA predicts decline by 23.7 million bopd over the next decade alone, the IEA forecasts, the equivalent of losing the entire output of Iraq every two years
So, we'll see.

Back-of-the-envelope:
  • the Bakken: 2 million bopd
  • the Eagle Ford: 2 million bopd (EIA: suggests about 1 million bopd)
  • the Permian: 4 million bopd (EIA: suggests about 2 million bopd)
  • subtotal: 8 million bopd in three plays
I can't even begin to count all the other tight plays in the US, but one could start with SCOOP and STACK. The IEA folks need to get out and about.

Active Rigs In North Dakota Steady At 42 -- December 22, 2016

First things first: "The Biggest Shot in NBA History." -- a great WSJ sports article. Spoiler alert: the biggest shot in NBA history? It wasn't Michael Jordan's, Ray Allen's or any of Robert Horry's. It was Kyrie Irving's clutch shot in Game 7 of the NBA Finals -- even if nobody realize.

US BAT and the EU VAT: the former is "illegal" under WTO; the VAT is just fine. Just yesterday, I made the observation that the US BAT is nothing different, in the eyes of some folks, than the German VAT. It's way different, of course, but ....

Kemper. Phoenix rising. Heidi Heitkamp in the news.

More appointments: Shaking things up. Carl Icahn, billionaire investor / activist; and, Peter Navarro, a critic of trade with China, join the president-elect's economic team. WSJ says Trump needs to add Larry Kudlow to the team. Agree. Navarro will head the new White House National Trade Council, a new entity. Icahn will be appointed "special advisor on regulations'; opened seven Icahn charter schools in New York. None of these positions will require Senate confirmation. Talking heads continue to raise "conflict of interest" issues. Heidi Heitkamp was director of ND gasification project; any doubt where her allegiances lie. Pelosi? Give me a break. "Joe" made excellent observation on Icahn to push back all this concern about "conflicts of interest."

And another appointment: Kellyann Conway will have title in White House, something like "Special Advisor."

Blind spot: President Reagan was the first president to appoint a Latino to his cabinet. President Trump is likely to be the first president in 28 years to not appoint a Latino to his cabinet. Other than an editorial in the WSJ has anyone said anything about this? 

Squawk Box: giddy with forecast. Two analysts suggest S&P 500 up to 2400; "Joe" says way too low with what Trump is suggesting. Analyst jokingly raise it to 2500, and "Joe" says that is still too low.

SUVs. The headline suggested bad news. Not. Here's the headline: US car makers idle plants among oversupply concerns. It's a good news story: they have an oversupply of sedans, compact cars, and minivans because .... drum roll ... Americans buying high-margin, gas-guzzling SUVs. Others suggest "not so fast": pick-up truck sales and SUVs sales have to slow down, also. Why?
“There is just not much demand for that small economical car,” said Scott James, president of Mike Shaw Automotive, which owns dealerships in Colorado, Texas and Louisiana. “It’s cheap gas.”
Prices at the pump have edged higher this year, hitting an average of $2.20 per gallon this week for regular unleaded, compared with $1.92 a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But current prices still remain well below the $3-4 range seen between 2011 and 2014.
Mr. James said he has no shortage of pickup-truck and SUV buyers, but that his “gut” tells him that new-vehicle sales overall are headed for a slowdown next year. “It’s certainly plateauing,” he said. “It can’t keep going strong forever.”
Aleppo evacuation nears end. UN is getting ready to send monitors to Aleppo to observe the "evacuation-that-was." I'm sure this has not escaped Trump's attention.

Confused. North Carolina adjourns; fails to repeal transgender law.

President Obama's advice to PEOTUS: undated, a screen shot from about December 18, 2016, just before he used executive order to "permanently" ban drilling in the Arctic and issued new rules with intent to kill coal industry:
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


12/22/201612/22/201512/22/201412/22/201312/22/2012
Active Rigs4265174191188

RBN Energy: how the rebounding LNG market will help US gas producers.
Are things really as bad as all that? No, they probably aren’t, especially if you take a longer-term view.
There are signs that the international LNG market’s mid-decade funk may be over, or that it’s at least in the process of ending. One indicator is that, as of this week, spot prices in eastern Asia­­—the epicenter of LNG demand—have risen to about $9/MMBtu, a gain of ~80% from the ~$5 spot prices of a few months ago. LNG demand is also up in 2016 compared to 2015—not necessarily at the two biggest LNG importing countries (#1 Japan and #2 South Korea), but declines there were more than offset by rising LNG demand from up-and-comers like #3 China and #4 India and from the six countries (Pakistan, Jamaica, Lithuania, Poland, Egypt and Jordan) that started importing LNG in 2015-16.
Nice 30-second soundbite: eastern Asia is the epicenter of LNG demand -- #1 Japan, #2 South Korea, #3 China, and #4 India.

But look at this: six countries started importing LNG in 2016: Poland, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Lithuania, and Jamaica.

LNG and Poland: huge back story on so many levels.

LNG and Jordan, Egypt: huge back story on so many levels.