Eight New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed; No DUCs Reported As Completed; Crescent Point Energy Reports A 70-Stage Fracked Well -- November 28, 2016

Active rigs:

	11/28/2016	11/28/2015	11/28/2014	11/28/2013	11/28/2012
Active Rigs	37	64	184	191	184

Eight (8) new permits:

• Operators: Crescent Point Energy
• Field: Winner (Williams)
• Comment: all the permits on one pad, see graphic below.

Ten (10) permits renewed:

• Oasis (5): five Jensen permits, all in Williams County
• BR (3): a Fritz Falls permit, a Rifle Person permit, and a Scottvale permit, all in Dunn County
• HRC: a Fort Berthold permit in Dunn County
• CLR: a Sacramento permit in Williams County

Two permits canceled:

• a Whiting Demores State Federal permit in Billings County
• a Samson Oil & Gas Rainbow permit in Williams County

No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

No wells come off the confidential list Tuesday. 

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Area for Crescent Point Energy's proposed 8-well Holmes / Ruby pad:

Completed Holmes / Ruby wells -- note the high-intensity Holmes well with 70 stages, 8.5 million lbs proppant:

• 24072, 342, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Holmes 8-5-158N-100W, Winner, TD = 19,842 feet, 70 stages, 8.5 million lbs, t3/15; cum 89K 9/16; 
• 24451, 128, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Ruby 17-20-158N-100W, Winner, TD= 19,842 feet, 35 stages, 2.8 million lbs, t3/15; cum 98K 9/16;

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Winter: A Great Time For Baking Bread

What's Papa Doing Now? Buying Permian Acreage For $11,000 / Acre -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 28, 2016

Updates

June 23, 2017: Bloomberg update of Centennial Resource and Mark Papa.
 

Original Post

 

Data points from bizjournals:

• Mark Papa stepped down as CEO of EOG in 2013; after 13 years
• Papa became CEO and chairman of Silver Run Acquisition Corp (SRAC)
• SRAC combined with Centennial Resource earlier this year
• new company: Centennial Resource Development
• Papa became CEO and chairman of Centennial Resource Development (CDEV)last month
• acquired 77,000 acres in Delaware Basin; becomes one of the bigger operators in the basin
• CDEV acquired the leasehold interests from Silverback Exploration LLC, out of San Antonio
• acquisition cost: $855 million (Reuters)

if those are net acres, $855 million / 77,000 acres = $11,000 / acre.

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And Now Concho....

From PennEnergy, data points:

• Concho Resources has acquired "dozens of square miles" in the northern Delaware Basin
• much of the acreage is located in the Red Hills area in Lea County, New Mexico
• deal worth $430 million
• from the linked article: "providing a glimmer of hope as state officials look to rebound from depressed energy prices that have crippled government spending."

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The Market

The market was down a bit today. After a thousand-point Trump rally, and all the uncertainty with the election recount, dropping 60 points is fairly trivial. But even on a down day, 217 issues on the NYSE hit new highs, including: BHI, Bank of America, Chevron, Cliffs Natural Resources, Deere, McDermott International, ONEOK -- I assume most of these hit their new highs early in the day and then dropped back.

Having said that, there were only 23 issues that recorded new lows, and some of those actually rose by the end of the, off their lows.

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The Political Page

VP-elect Pence says there will be important announcements coming from Trump Tower Tuesday. Quick: who was the last to leave Trump Tower today: Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or David Petraeus?

The AP projects that California republican representative Darrell Issa will (narrowly) win re-election. The only question yet to be answered is whether Jill Stein will ask for a recount. It probably depends on how fast and how much money she can raise.

Send In The DAPL National Guard -- More Snow On The Way; Roads Blocked, Freezing Weather; Winter Storm Warning Extended Through End Of November -- November 28, 2016

Updates

Later, 6:11 p.m. Central Time: the original post was time-stamped 3:56 p.m. earlier today. Now, just a few hours later, ND governor signs a humanitarian emergency evacuation order to save life and limb of those trapped in the protest camp. 

The emergency order addresses safety concerns and the potential danger to human life for those camping on federal property without proper shelter during harsh winter conditions.

Original Post

 

NWS (a dynamic link, no doubt). Currently a couple of degrees below freezing. Four to ten more inches of that white stuff forecast.

Wind chill: 16 degrees Fahrenheit (nine degrees below zero Celsius).

Gusts to 30 mph.

Hazardous weather outlook: look for a foot of snow south of Bismarck.

Winter storm warming: Fort Yates, ND, more of the same; through November 30, 2016.

The Trillion-Dollar Mistake -- No End In Sight -- November 28, 2016

On November 22, 2016, I posted this estimate (the $5 billion/month) figure is my "hunch" based on several stories:

Saudi Arabia: until it sees $74 oil, the kingdom is going to spend upwards of $5 billion/month out of its cash reserves to meet payroll -- Reuters, via Twitter.

Today, from FuelFix we get another important data point. For quite some time, it's been reported that Saudi Arabia based their budget on $100-oil. In this linked article we see that the "new" Saudi Arabia budget is based on $92-oil. The data points from the linked article:

• Saudi's finances "fall into disarray"
• current deficit has ballooned to one-fifth of its economic output
• current deficit is about twice the size of the 2009 deficit, the worst year of the so-called Great Recession
• Saudi has burned through $180 billion in financial reserves despite huge budget cuts

Just as bad elsewhere:

• Iraq: fiscal deficit at 20% of its GDP
• Kuwait: 12%
• UAE: 9%

Most important data point: Saudi Arabia needs $92-oil and "we" won't see $92-oil any time soon. We'll be lucky if we get to $75 by the end of President Trump's first term. Except I don't know why we want $75-oil. I think most American consumers "love" $1.74-gasoline.

Winter Storm Blanche Hammering North Dakota -- Just Beginning -- November 28, 2016

Updates

Later, 9:25 p.m. Central Time: see first comment -- talk about a conflict-of-interest ...  it has been reported that Standing Rock's chairman Dave Archambault II is the owner of the Cannon Ball Pit Stop gas station you are referring to on Hwy 1806.

Later, 2:09 p.m. Central Time: NWS reporting that New Town, ND, has "received" eleven (11) inches of snow. If New Town got that much snow, the Standing Rock folks are going to be snowed in for at least a couple of days. These secondary roads, some of the tertiary roads, are down the list of priority roads that need to be plowed. Good luck to all. And it gets dark really, really, early.

Original Post

 

The Weather Channel continues to highlight major winter storm in the Dakotas; the storm seems to be centered around north-central South Dakota, and south-central North Dakota -- between Bismark, ND; and Pierre, SD.

Earlier this morning, The Weather Channel predicted up to a foot of snow in Bismarck. That has now been updated (10:58 a.m. Central Time) from one foot to one-and-a-half feet. 

Camera images from North Dakota DOT at this link: http://www.dot.nd.gov/travel-info-v2/. When you get to the link, click on "Camera Images" (upper left hand corner) and then pick region of interest. For this storm, I would pick "Bismarck/Mandan" area.

Something tells me there will be a lot of folks asking for state assistance to simply stay alive. Just remember that the Obama administration delayed the closure of the camp by about two weeks when the weather was still lovely.

I remember hitchhiking from Pierre, SD, to Williston, ND, back in the winter of 1970 - 1971. At Christmas break my roommate drove me to his home in Pierre, SD. I stayed overnight at his home, and then the next morning, under freezing and snowy conditions, I hitchhiked home. Six hours in the "elements" under these conditions is incredibly dangerous.

Stayin' Alive, Bee Gees
I believe the only fixed public building on US Highway 1806 in this area is a service station. Yes, the kind that sells gasoline and diesel. That comes from crude oil.