US Oil Rig Count Rises Due To Increase In Permian, Williston Basins -- IBD -- September 30, 2016

From Investor's Business Daily: US oil rig count rises again on Permian, Williston gains! Data points:

• US oil rig count rose by seven this past week to 425
• oil rigs have risen in the past 13 out of 14 weeks
• most recently: Williston Basin rose by two to 30; Cana-Woodford rose by two to 35; Eagle Ford steady at 33

Active rigs:

	9/30/2016	09/30/2015	09/30/2014	09/30/2013	09/30/2012
Active Rigs	33	68	190	184	190

Three (3) new permits:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
• Comments:

No producing wells reported as being completed (DUCs): none.

Two permits canceled:

• 26697, PNC, HRC, Hagbos 2-25-36H, Standahl, 
• 29380, PNC, MRO, Tucker 44-20TFH, Bailey,

Seven permits renewed:

• EOG (3): three Austin permits, Mountrail County
• HRC (2): two Borrud permits, Williams County
• Hunt: an Oakland permit, Mountrail County
• Petro-Hunt: a Jorgenson permit, Burke County

Canadian Prime Minister To Decide Fate Of Several Major Pipeline Projects By End Of Year -- September 30, 2016

USC - LA Times presidential poll (link here, dynamic):

Active rigs:

	9/30/2016	09/30/2015	09/30/2014	09/30/2013	09/30/2012
Active Rigs	34	68	190	184	190

RBN Energy: sending western Canadian natural gas east for export as LNG.

For some time now, discussions about the possible development of Canadian liquefaction/LNG export terminals have focused on the Western Canadian coast in British Columbia––partly because most of Canada’s natural gas reserves are nearby in northeastern BC and in Alberta, and partly due to Asia being a primary LNG target market.

But it could be that liquefaction/LNG export projects in Eastern Canada may make more sense. In today’s blog, “So Far Away –Sending Western Canadian Natural Gas East for Export as LNG,” LNG Ltd.’s Greg M. Vesey considers the rationale for piping Western Canadian natural gas long distances to Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes for export as LNG.

Western Canada has vast reserves of natural gas that would be cost-competitive to drill for, produce and transport to market if only there was a new, incremental market for large natural gas volumes. This conundrum has been a frequent topic in the RBN blogosphere, and has been looked at from several angles. 

Most recently, we discussed the facts that natural gas producers in Alberta and BC have been struggling to replace markets in Ontario and the U.S. Midwest that they’ve been losing to Marcellus/Utica producers in recent years, and that––thanks mostly to the current-and-growing glut of worldwide liquefaction capacity –– no liquefaction/LNG export projects along the BC coast have advanced to Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) and construction. 

Getting approval for big new gas pipelines from BC and Alberta gas production areas to the BC coast has been another challenge. RBN blogs have also handicapped the leading BC projects and at the possibility of moving Marcellus/Utica gas through New York and New England to Canada’s New Brunswick and Nova Scotia provinces not only to meet in-province needs but to export as LNG.

Canadian pipeline. Link here.

• Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau says he will decide by end of year on fate of proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway oil pipeline
• Trudeau must also decide fate of Kinder Morgan Inc.'s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion by end of year
• Trudeau has said he will approve at least one big oil project
• sources say he favors Kinder Morgan over Enbridge

Jobs Report -- September 29, 2016

Claims rose to 254,000. And here. Well below the 260,000 forecast. Four-week moving average, down from 258,500 previously, at 256,000.

****************************

Individual Health Insurance Premiums Soar -- Duluth News Tribune

Link here.  Data points:

• Minnesota: private health care insurance premiums to rise 67% next year
• follows BC/BS announcement earlier this summer it was eliminating all but one of its individual health policies
• insurance regulators: "premium increases are unacceptable but nothing they can do"

 

*********************************

Consumer Spending Drops; "Clouds" Federal Reserve Rate Hike Decision --  Reuters

Link here.  Data points:

• US consumer spending fell in August for the first time in seven months
• inflation showed "cautious signs of accelerating"
• US consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity
• spending fell 0.1% (after accounting for inflation); analysts had expected a 0.1% gain

Not to worry: once higher gasoline prices kick in, consumer spending will increase. 

North Fork Oil Field

North Fork oil field is literally in the heart of the Bakken, about 10 miles southeast of Watford City. It is the most irregularly shaped oil field I have "reviewed" to date. It is about 40 sections -- squeezed in between Croff, Bear Den, Haystack Butte, Pembroke, Siverston, and Pershing -- all very good fields, and just south of the heart of the Bakken, the northeast corner of McKenzie County.

Permits

2016
32634, PNC, Abraxas, Yellowstone Boxer 1H, North Fork,
32633, conf, Abraxas, Yellowstone 2H, North Fork,
32632, conf, Abraxas, Yellowstone 3H, North Fork,
32631, conf, Abraxas, Yellowstone 4H, North Fork,


2015 (list is complete)
32100, conf, Abraxas, Stenehjem 9H, North Fork,
32099, conf, Abraxas, Stenehjem 8H, North Fork,
32098, conf, Abraxas, Stenehjem 7H, North Fork,
32097, conf, Abraxas, Stenehjem 6H, North Fork,
32071, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork,
32070, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork,
32069, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34A, North Fork,
32068, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34H, North Fork,
32067, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34F, North Fork,
32066, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34C, North Fork,
32065, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34B, North Fork,
32064, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34G, North Fork,
31524, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 31X-28DXA, North Fork,
31392, PNC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 2-18-17H, North Fork,
31168, PNC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 3-18-17H, North Fork,
31167, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 15H, North Fork, did produce 11K bbls over first 17 days;
31166, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 14H, North Fork, did produce 11K bbls over first 16 days;
31165, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 13H, North Fork, did produce 11K bbls over first 15 days;
31164, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 12H, North Fork, did produce 6K bbls over first 12 days;
31163, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 11H, North Fork, did produce 6K bbls over first 8 days;
31162, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 10H, North Fork, did produce 6K bbls over first 9 days;
30925, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9 TFH, North Fork,
30922, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9 MBH, North Fork,
30911, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 24-9 TFH, North Fork,
30870, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 TFH-2SH, North Fork,
30872, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 MBH-3SH, North Fork,
31020, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9MTFH-ULW, North Fork,
30924, conf, BR, Curtis 44-9 MBH, North Fork,
30923, conf, BR, Curtis 44-9 TFH, North Fork,
30916, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 MBH-ULW, North Fork,
30915, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 TFH, North Fork,
30914, conf, BR, Curtis 14-9 MBH, North Fork,
30910, conf, BR, Curtis 24-9 MBH, North Fork,
30871, conf, BR, Curtis 21-16 TFH-3NH, North Fork,
30869, conf, BR, Curtis 21-16 MBH-2NH, North Fork,
30487, conf, BR, Merton 14010TFH, North Fork,
30486, conf, BR, Merton 14-10MBH, North Fork,
30485, conf, BR, Jerome 14-10MBH, North Fork,

2014 (list is complete)
30282, 2,806, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH, North Fork, 27 stages; 5 million lbs; t9/16; cum 71K 2/17;
30281, 3,487, BR, Merton 21-15MBH, North Fork, 26 stages, 5.2 million bls, did produce 2K bbls over first 13 days; t9/16; cum 86K 2/17;
30280, 3,327, BR, Merton 21-15TFH, North Fork, 4 sections, 26 stages; 11.7 million lbs, t9/16; cum 93K 2/17;
30223, conf, BR, Jerome 41-15TFH, North Fork,
30222, conf, BR, Jerome 41-15MBH, North Fork,
30221, conf, BR, Merton 41-15MBH, North Fork,
29990, 686, Abraxas, Stenehjem 5H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 84K 7/16; only 9 days in 7/16;
29780, 745, Abraxas, Ravin 8H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 103K 8/16;
29779, 833, Abraxas, Sten-Rav 1H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 96K 7/16;
28794, 922, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-5H, North Fork, t4/15; cum 128K 7/16;
28793, 890, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-6H, North Fork, t6/15; cum 118K 7/16;
28792, 993, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-7H, North Fork, t6/15; cum 12K 7/16;
28791, 923, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-8H, North Fork, t6/15; cum 118K 7/16;
28393, 1,328, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9G, North Fork, t4/15; cum 80K 7/16;
28392, 1,705, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9D, North Fork, t4/15; cum 104K 7/16;
28391, 1,163, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9H, North Fork, t4/15; cum 96K 7/16;
28323, 917, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-4H, North Fork, t12/14; cum 132K 7/16; off-line as of 6/16;
28322, 950, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-3H, North Fork, t12/14; cum 143K 7/16; off-line as of 6/16;
28321, 788, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-2H, North Fork, t12/14; cum 96K 7/16; off-line as of 7/16;

2013 (list is complete)
26885, 1,141, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-4H, North Fork, t10/14; cum 66K 12/14;
26884, 1,395, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-5H, North Fork, t8/14; cum 85K 12/14;
26883, 1,594, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-6H, North Fork, t9/14; cum 88K 12/14;
26882, 1,473, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-7H, North Fork, t9/14; cum 75K 12/14;
26639, EXP, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13E, North Fork
25433, 783, Slawson, Mauser Federal 7-18-17H, North Fork, t11/13; cum 135K 7/16; 0 days in 7/16; 23 days in 6/16;
25432, 720, Slawson, Mauser Federal 4-18-17TFH, North Fork, t11/13; cum 144K 7/16; only 5 days in 7/16;
25202, SI/NC, BR, Jerome 21-15TFH 3SH, 4 sections, North Fork, produced 7K bbls over first 19 days;
25201, 3,360, BR, Merton 21-15TFH 3NH, 4 sections, North Fork, t8/16; cum 11K over first 25 days;
25200, 1,776, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH 2SH, 4 sections, North Fork, 24 stages; 4.7 million lbs, t8/16; cum --
25199, 2,928, BR, Merton 21-15mBH 2NH, 4 sections, North Fork, 30 stages; 5.7 million lbs, t8/16; cum --

2012 (list is complete)
23893, 859, Slawson, Mauser Federal 1-18-17TFH, North Fork, t11/13; cum 123K 7/16; only 7 days in 7/16; 13 days in 6/16; 25 days in 5/16;
23266, 1,849, XTO, Mariana Trust 12X-20H, North Fork, t3/13; cum 146K 7/16; only 3 days 6/16; 14 days 5/15; back on line 7/16;
22996, 761, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-3H, North Fork, t10/12; cum 132K 12/14;
22995, 1,160, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-1H, North Fork, t6/14; cum 94K 12/14;
22994, 1,049, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-4H, North Fork, t5/14; cum 105K 12/14;
22993, 790, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-2H, North Fork, t6/14; cum 89K 12/14;

2011 (list is complete)
21995, 706, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-3H, North Fork, t2/13; cum 76K 12/14;
21994, 658, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-2H, North Fork, t2/13; cum 55K 12/14;
20767, PNC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-11,
20725, PNC, XTO, Cherry Creek Federal 11X-15B,
20724, PNC, XTO, Johnson Federal 11X-15B,
20706, PNC, BR, Jerome 31-15TFH-2SH, 
20705, PNC, BR, Merton 31-15TFH-3NH, 
20704, PNC, BR, Jerome 31-15MBH-3SH, 
20703, PNC, BR, Merton 31-15MBH-2NH, 
20501, 1,801, XTO, Wolff 13-24ENH, t8/11; cum 194K 7/16; only 17 days 6/16;  

Earlier:
19331, PNC, Bakken, North Fork,
19237, 862, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-1H, Bakken, North Fork, t7/11; cum 130K 8/16; pretty much off-line since 4/16; no production all of 7/16 - 8/16;
19054, 1,008, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-1H, North Fork, t1/11; cum 194K 8/16;

BR With Four New Veeder Permits -- September 29, 2016

Active rigs:

	9/29/2016	09/29/2015	09/29/2014	09/29/2013	09/29/2012
Active Rigs	34	69	186	184	190

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
32472, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21D, Heart Butte, no production data,

Wells coming off confidential list today:

• 32282, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21CXD, Heart Butte, no production data,

One producing well reported at completed (DUC):

• 25200, 1,776, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH 2SH, 4 sections, North Fork, t8/16; cum --

Four new permits:

• Operator: BR
• Field: Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
• Comments:

***********************

DUCs

Over at the Discussion Group, a reader had a question about DUCs. I provided my 2-cents worth. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong.