25% of 1.1 Degree Over The Past 100 Years -- Solar Flares

Link here to Fox News.

An estimate from NASA said that solar variations caused 25 percent of the 1.1 degree Fahrenheit warming that has been observed over the past century.

So, now we can add 75 percent to the equation:

75% of 5% of 3% of 3% of 1.1 degree F -->  whatever.

Two story lines here:

• a reminder that we are talking about 1.1 degree F over ONE HUNDRED YEARS; and, 
• Fox News is slipping. The global temperature is always reported in Celsius. A Celsius degree is 1.8 Fahrenheit degrees (in other words, the degree markings are farther apart on a Celsius thermometer. So a 1.1 degree F = a 0.6 Celsius degree. So, assuming I did the math correctly, we are talking about a 0.6 Celsius degree change over ONE HUNDRED YEARS

But again, the two big questions are never answered:

• what is the "correct" temperature for the earth? and,
• who sets the thermostat?

Many have said they want to re-set the thermostat, but no one has said what they want to set the thermostat to.

WPX and The Niobrara

I can't recall if I posted this earlier (I don't think I did) but recent news articles suggest this story might have some legs.  

WPX Energy’s successful Niobrara shale discovery in western Colorado has the potential to significantly increase the company’s natural gas reserves and daily production in ensuing years.

The discovery well produced an initial high of 16 million cubic feet per day at a flowing pressure of 7,300 pounds per square inch.

The well has since been choked back substantially to optimize reservoir performance and ensure maximum resource recovery. Over the past 30 days, it produced at an average rate of 12 million cubic feet per day.

WPX has the lease rights to approximately 180,000 net acres of the Niobrara/Mancos shale play that underlies the company’s expansive leasehold position in the Piceance Basin.

Saturday Morning -- Feds To Allow Slicers and Dicers To Kill Bald Eagles For 30 Years -- Cue Up Connie Francie; Feds Accept 15 Eagle Deaths/Year By Wind Turbines Okay

Updates

Later, 11:12 am: Minneapolis Star-Tribune -- Feds okay wind turbines killing 15 eagles/year, more if necessary. There is no limit, but the estimate is "at most," 15 eagles would be killed every year for the next 30 years. Gee, that's ony 450 eagles. Someone told me there are about 400 eagles in the area under consideration. One migratory duck drowns in a waste pond and it's a felony for the oil company. Cue up Connie Francis. No wonder Steven Chu resigned; even he saw the craziness. 

A bitterly contested wind farm proposed for Goodhue County got the go-ahead Wednesday to pursue a permit that would allow it to legally kill or injure eagles, in what could be the first case of federal authorities issuing a license to kill the protected national symbol.

The 48-turbine project would kill at most eight to 15 eagles a year, a number that would not harm the local population, federal officials said in a letter to state regulators. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said its estimate does not include possible strategies to reduce the number of eagles killed and, that if a permit is eventually granted, the goal would be a much lower figure.

So, while the faux environmentalists are upset about sand/gravel pits, they applaud killing unlimited numbers of eagles (and hawks and whooping cranes and ducks), although "at most," 15 eagles/year is the likely worse case scenario.

Original Post


WSJ Links

Section D (Off Duty): not much.

Section C (Review):
Book review: The Theoretical Minimum, by Leonard Susskind and George Hrabovsky -- Physics made (almost) easy;

Book review: P. G. Wodehouse: A Life in Letters, edited by Sophie Ratcliffe, missives from the master.

Section B (Business & Finance):
Coping with the pain of souring Apple shares.

Exxon, Chevron receive big boost from refining.

Is taxing health plans next?

Section A:
Op-ed: The Fish and Wildlife Service is not for the birds -- the federal government plans to allow wind turbines to kill bald eagles for 30 years. Slicers and dicers have no redeeming features. Nada. Except as a tax break for the rich.

From XOM Earnings Call, Killing The Keystone, Rail, Plan B

"Anon 1" alerted me to this Q&A in the XOM earnings call:

...my second question, it really relates to the use of rail for oil movement in North America. And I know that Exxon has a large existing railcar fleet, a diversified and growing liquid footprint. I also read a report recently that Exxon's placed a significant railcar order recently. And so I just wondering do you see rail as a potential solution for taking [ph] barrel production in the event maybe the Keystone is delayed or denied, or if you have other kind of specified or a contemplated use for rail as a bit more permanent solution for oil movement in North America. 

David S. Rosenthal - Vice President of Investor Relations and Secretary: That's an all-encompassing question, so I'll probably step back here for just a second and put it in perspective. First of all, with relation -- or with regard to the Kearl project, we have worked all of the logistics out and we can place all of our barrels and we have the capability to run all those barrels in our own refineries for that first 110,000 barrels a day.

We may elect to put some into third-party refineries, but we do not have an issue in terms of logistics, moving those barrels out of the Kearl project and into the market. As you look a little more broadly, both at the Canadian heavy crude as well as a lot of the crudes such as Bakken, until pipelines are built and some of the things that you mentioned actually come to fruition, there are, today, some bottlenecks across the industry and there's a lot of different modes of transportation being used to move that product to market, of which railcar is certainly one of them, waiting for some of these pipelines to come in.

As you mentioned, we have -- or as you would expect with the size of our business, we have a very large fleet of rail cars, both across all of our businesses, and so that is already a primary mode of transportation for us. We're always looking at that. We're always looking at the logistics and how we can optimize both the placement of our production into the market as well as obtaining advantaged feedstocks for our refining circuit. And so that is an ongoing effort, and there's nothing unusual in that.

In regards to the rumor that you heard, I would just say that's a rumor. I wouldn't have a comment on it specifically, but I can say there's nothing out of the ordinary in terms of what our organization, our supply organization is working on, again, getting our crudes to market for the best value and getting the lowest cost advantaged feedstocks into our refineries and chemical plants.

Week 5: January 27, 2013 -- February 2, 2013

Pricing
Gasoline at highest price EVER for this time of year.
Gasoline prices headed up; will hit $4/gallon by spring.
2012: best year EVER for average price of oil; will it continue?
WTI-Brent spread widening: Seaway expansion delayed until 4Q13.

Politics
Decision on Keystone XL delayed indefinitely.
SecEnergy Steven Chu announces resignation. 

Economic development
BHI has invested $120 million in Bakken facilities in past 20 months
Random video of new BHI complex west of Williston
$12 million not enough for Dickinson's needed infrastructure 

Bakken operations
Magnum Hunter's Bakken Hunter seeks 264 wells in single case, February dockets.
Is OXY ready to get out of the Bakken?
2,051 wells on the confidential list.
Another look at CLR's plan to target the lower benches of the Three Forks

Records
Whiting has another record-setting well in Twin Valley; another Tarpon Federal well.
Slawson pays $19,500/Bakken acre in recent BLM auction.

Takeaway
Barges to carry Bakken oil to California, Washington State
Barge, rail moving oil to Washington; Washington State having difficulty coping with activity.
Rail will be primary Bakken mover for several years
A first: a multi-grade crude oil loading terminal to be built near Guernsey, Wyoming; will handle Bakken crude; first multi-grade crude oil rail terminal
Calumet considering a new crude oil loading dock on Lake Superior for Bakken oil

Market
Oasis surges 5% in one day.

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