Put the headphones on, turn the volume up and watch:
See the blog's disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
As readers should know by now, I quit listening to / watching CNBC since February 28, 2026, the day the Iranian War began. Over the past few days, I've tuned in for maybe fifteen minutes or so to catch the earnings of companies like AMD and AAPL.
Today, I'm not sure why, but I suppose it was out of curiosity as much as anything else to see what the panel was discussing at the noon-hour show. Wow, again, so incredibly disappointing. Part of the discussion was whether "the AI story" would last ten years. It was all opinion, sentiment, arguments based on no reasoning. Just gut feelings. Religion. Not science.
With AI / chatbots, one can get a nice analysis of the same subject. The first industrial revolution was of a very, very different age and time and cannot easily be compared to this, the fourth (sixth) industrial revolution.
However, the second industrial revolution is much closer in time and in geography to the current revolution and thus it may be worthwhile to compare that revolution with the current AI revolution.
The second industrial revolution was much larger in scope than the first revolution, which was pretty much confined to England. The second industrial revolution was largely an American industrial revolution. It spanned many different industrial sectors but if one had to choose one image to identify it, it would be the US railroads and the US rail barons.
That revolution, the second industrial revolution, lasted 44 years. Yes, that's considered accurate. Amazing, huh? Historians can actually place bookends on such a phenomenon.
Certainly not one individual can answer the next question. How long with the current AI revolution last?
There's only one "source" that can a rationally formulate an answer that question: AI, and for a human to interact with AI, one goes through a chatbot.
What does one chatbot say? It's a no-brainer that the current AI revolution will be much more compressed and shorter in time than the second industrial revolution. How much more compressed and how much shorter.
I posted earlier that the "Sam Altmans" of the world predict that the "technological singularity" of the current revolution will be fourteen years from now -- 14 + 2024 = 2038. There is evidence that some have already seen the "technological singularity."
The chatbot I queried said the "high point" of the current revolution would be seen in the mid- to late-2030s.
I argued that the current revolution began post-Covid, 2022.
The chatbot:
- the current technological revolution can be traced back decades --
- WWII, the Manhattan Project, and
- the research university - industrial - military complex
- the spark occurred, 2016 - 2000 --
- the introduction of the Transformer architecture, published by Google researchers in the seminal 2017 paper "Attention Is All You Need."
- the foundation of early neural networks; and,
- the current form of the AI revolution began in 2022 (post-Covid).
Query: what was the spark that ignited the current AI revolution?
Reply:
Like all biological phenomena and revolutions, this current AI revolution will also follow the standard "S" curve.
See below.
Point A, about 2023: it had become obvious that one should have began investing heaving in AI by now. Interestingly, the term "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7) was coined in 2023 by Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett. He created the nickname to describe a group of seven dominant, high-performing U.S. technology stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.
Point B, about 2028, will be the last opportunity to continue investing aggressively in AI. The Mag 7 will have greatly expanded by then. One might argue we'll see a resurgence of "a" Nifty Fifty.
Between points A and B aggressive investors need to continue aggressively invest in AI, but transition from the Mag7 to the Towering 20.
Many of these new twenty companies will be the results of IPOs between now (2026 and 2028).
Unless there are indications that the growth/excitement of the current AI revolution continues beyond 2030, the investor needs to pivot. And pivot quickly. The market -- certainly the AI market -- could plummet 20 to 25 percent once the average investor sees what is going on. One may already need to consider pivoting from the current Mag 7 to something new.
Between now and then, keep reading everything you can on societal and geo-political changes. The trick will be to anticipate the next Mag 7. My own hunch: pharmaceutical companies that focus on "healthspan expansion" and even, perhaps, "biological age reversal." Beware charlatans.
It's not too late to invest in the current AI revolution, but by next year this time -- maybe sooner -- investing in the current Mag 7 will be challenging -- the real winners (investors) will be those who correctly anticipate the Towering 20 in 2030. Maybe we will see thirty such tickers by 2030 ... "thirty for 2030" --- "30 for 30."
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Disclaimer
Briefly
Briefly:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken. I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. Longer version here.
